The Effects of Changing Land Cover on Streamflow Simulation in Puerto Rico

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953‐2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.     

Simulating property exchange in estuarine ecosystem models at ecologically appropriate scales

A computational scheme has been developed and tested to simulate property exchange by advection and dispersion in estuaries at time and space scales that are well suited to ecological and management simulations, but are coarse relative to the demands of physical hydrodynamic models. An implementation of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) for the Providence River and Narragansett Bay (RI, USA) was used to determine property exchanges between the spatial elements of an ecological box model. The basis for the method is the statistical tabulation of numerical dye experiments done with the full ROMS physical model. The ROMS model domain was subdivided into fifteen coarse boxes, each with two vertical layers, defining 30 elements that were used for the box model simulations. Dye concentrations were set to arbitrary initial concentrations for all ROMS grids in the large elements, and the ROMS model was run for 24 h. The final distribution of the dye among the elements was used as a tracer for property exchange over that day and was used to develop an exchange matrix. Box model predictions of salinity over 77 days in each element compared favorably with ROMS simulated salinity averaged over the same spatial elements, although the disparity was greater in areas where large river inflows caused strong gradients in ROMS within elements assumed to be homogeneous in the box model. The 77-day simulation included periods of high and low river flow. Despite the large size of the spatial elements, dispersion artifacts were small, much less than the modeled daily exchanges. While others have taken a similar approach, we found a number of theoretical and practical considerations deserved careful attention for this approach to perform satisfactorily. Whereas the full ROMS model takes 9 days on a powerful computing cluster to compute the physics simulation for 77 days, the box model simulates physics and biology for the same interval in 5 s on a personal computer, and a full year in under 1 min. The exchange matrix mixing model is a fast, cost effective, and convenient way to simulate daily variation of complex estuarine physics in ecological modeling at appropriate scales of space and time.     

Vegetation competition model for water and light limitation. I: Model description, one-dimensional competition and the influence of groundwater

Vegetation growth models often concentrate on the interaction of vegetation with soil moisture but usually omit the influence of groundwater. However the proximity of groundwater can have a profound effect on vegetation growth, because it strongly influences the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture and therefore water and oxygen stress of vegetation. In two papers we describe the behavior of a coupled vegetation-groundwater-soil water model including the competition for water and light. In this first paper we describe the vegetation model, compare the model to measured flux data and show the influence of water and light competition in one dimension. In the second paper we focus on the influence of lateral groundwater flow and spatial patterns along a hillslope. The vegetation model is based on a biophysical representation of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Transpiration and stomatal conductance depend both on atmospheric forcing and soil moisture content. Carbon assimilation depends on environmental conditions, stomatal conductance and biochemical processes. Light competition is driven by tree height and water competition is driven by root water uptake and its water and oxygen stress reaction. The modeled and measured H₂O and CO₂ fluxes compare well to observations on both a diurnal and a yearly timescale. Using an upscaling procedure long simulation runs were performed. These show the importance of light competition in temperate forests: once a tree is established under slightly unfavorable soil moisture conditions it can not be outcompeted by smaller trees with better soil moisture uptake capabilities, both in dry as in wet conditions. Performing the long simulation runs with a background mortality rate reproduces realistic densities of wet and dry adapted tree species along a wet to dry gradient. These simulations show that the influence of groundwater is apparent for a large range of groundwater depths, by both capillary rise and water logging. They also show that species composition and biomass have a larger influence on the water balance in eco-hydrological systems than soil and groundwater alone.     

施工场地内安全标志位置的有效性研究及其应用

为提高施工场地内安全标志的可见性,选择建筑施工场地内常见的门架式出入口作为研究对象,采取理论推导与实验验证相结合的方法,探讨在观察行为中门架式安全标志的有效布置位置.首先在理论层面,从观察者的角度出发,通过研究行走路径、视野以及安全标志可见域之间的关系,推导出门架式安全标志有效布置区域的理论表示范围;然后在实验验证层面...     

Revisiting the elemental composition and the calorific value of the organic fraction of municipal solid wastes

In this work, the elemental content (C, N, H, S, O), the organic matter content and the calorific value of various organic components that are commonly found in the municipal solid waste stream were measured. The objective of this work was to develop an empirical equation to describe the calorific value of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste as a function of its elemental composition. The MSW components were grouped into paper wastes, food wastes, yard wastes and plastics. Sample sizes ranged from 0.2 to 0.5 kg. In addition to the above individual components, commingled municipal solid wastes were sampled from a bio-drying facility located in Crete (sample sizes ranged from 8 to 15 kg) and were analyzed for the same parameters. Based on the results of this work, an improved empirical model was developed that revealed that carbon, hydrogen and oxygen were the only statistically significant predictors of calorific value. Total organic carbon was statistically similar to total carbon for most materials in this work. The carbon to organic matter ratio of 26 municipal solid waste substrates and of 18 organic composts varied from 0.40 to 0.99. An approximate chemical empirical formula calculated for the organic fraction of commingled municipal solid wastes was C₃₂NH₅₅O₁₆.     

Virus transport in physically and geochemically heterogeneous subsurface porous media

A two-dimensional model for virus transport in physically and geochemically heterogeneous subsurface porous media is presented. The model involves solution of the advection-dispersion equation, which additionally considers virus inactivation in the solution, as well as virus removal at the solid matrix surface due to attachment (deposition), release, and inactivation. Two surface inactivation models for the fate of attached inactive viruses and their subsequent role on virus attachment and release were considered. Geochemical heterogeneity, portrayed as patches of positively charged metal oxyhydroxide coatings on collector grain surfaces, and physical heterogeneity, portrayed as spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, were incorporated in the model. Both layered and randomly (log-normally) distributed physical and geochemical heterogeneities were considered. The upstream weighted multiple cell balance method was employed to numerically solve the governing equations of groundwater flow and virus transport. Model predictions show that the presence of subsurface layered geochemical and physical heterogeneity results in preferential flow paths and thus significantly affect virus mobility. Random distributions of physical and geochemical heterogeneity have also notable influence on the virus transport behavior. While the solution inactivation rate was found to significantly influence the virus transport behavior, surface inactivation under realistic field conditions has probably a negligible influence on the overall virus transport. It was further demonstrated that large virus release rates result in extended periods of virus breakthrough over significant distances downstream from the injection sites. This behavior suggests that simpler models that account for virus adsorption through a retardation factor may yield a misleading assessment of virus transport in "hydrogeologically sensitive" subsurface environments.     

Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.     

Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape,western Washington

Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.     

Modeling wilderness campsites: Factors that influence amount of impact

A standard campsite model is proposed and then manipulated to examine the influence of individual variables on amount of vegetation loss. Amount of impact is influenced by amount of use, vegetation fragility, vegetation density, and the degree to which activities are concentrated spatially on the site. Degree of concentration also influences the importance of the other explanatory variables. Amount of use and vegetation fragility are equally important determinants of impact and are most influential where activity concentration is low. The curvilinear relationship between amount of use and amount of impact can be explained by the tendency for activities to become increasingly concentrated as amount of use increases. This relationship should not vary with regional or environmental characteristics except where these influence degree of activity concentration.     

Using Landsat data to estimate evapotranspiration of winter wheat

An evapotranspiration (ET) model that accurately estimates daily water use and soil moisture on a regional basis is required for many agricultural and hydrological studies. The model should use meterological data that are readily available and crop information that is responsive to the changing vigor of the plants.We evaluated an ET model with a weighing lysimeter and then applied it to winter wheatfields at four Kansas locations. Model inputs are solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and leaf area index (LAI); included in the outputs are estimates of transpiration, evaporation, and soil moisture. An equation was developed to estimate LAI from Landsat data. Because LAI can be estimated from satellites, the ET model can potentially be used on a regional basis.