Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

Regional Representativeness of Swedish Reference Lakes

/ Recent focus has been placed on ecoregion delineations for providing an appropriate framework for monitoring and assessment of region-specific attainable water/habitat quality. Using an ecoregion approach to stratify variance, this study was conducted to determine whether earlier (subjectively) selected Swedish reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative reference sites when compared with a randomly selected lake population. Predictive modeling by discriminant function analysis with lakes classified by ecoregion and lake surface area and six physicochemical variables showed that the greater majority of reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative. The highest proportion of lake "misclassifications" occurred in the boreonemoral ecoregion, a relatively diverse ecoregion of southern Sweden. This apparent bias may be in part be due to the criteria used in selecting regional reference lakes. In the earlier selection of reference lakes emphasis was placed on lakes not being adversely affected by land usage or pollutant discharges, consequently forest lakes were often overrepresented and sites in agricultural areas underrepresented in the selected reference sites. As a complement to predictive modeling, PCA ordination showed the placement of reference lakes within the random lake population and indicated where reference sites might be missing along potentially important ecological gradients. KEY WORDS: Regionalization; Ecoregion; Representativeness; Reference; Ordination; Modeling; Temperate lakes     

A composite medium approximation for unsaturated flow in layered sediments

Saturated-unsaturated flow in strictly layered sediments proceeds via conductors in parallel in the direction parallel to bedding, and via resistors in series in the direction perpendicular to bedding. On sufficiently small scales of space and time, flow in such media will be subject to approximate capillary equilibrium locally, which provides a basis for approximating the effective hydraulic conductivity of a composite multi-layer medium in terms of the conductivities of the individual layers. Equations for the hydraulic conductivity tensor in "composite medium approximation" (COMA) are given in a coordinate system aligned with bedding. Hydraulic conductivity parallel to bedding is generally larger than in the perpendicular direction. The anisotropy depends on the spread of the conductivity distribution, and tends to increase for dryer conditions. The COMA model was implemented in a multi-phase flow simulator and tested by comparison with high-resolution simulations in which all layering heterogeneity is resolved explicitly. Under favorable conditions, COMA is found to accurately represent sub-grid scale flow and transport processes, providing a practical method for simulating field-scale flow and transport in layered media. The approximation improves when layers are thinner, and when flow rates are smaller.     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

A GIS Model of Subsurface Water Potential for Aquatic Resource Inventory,Assessment, and Environmental Management

Biological, chemical, and physical attributes of aquatic ecosystems are often strongly influenced by groundwater sources. Nonetheless, widespread access to predictions of subsurface contributions to rivers, lakes, and wetlands at a scale useful to environmental managers is generally lacking. In this paper, we describe a neighborhood analysis approach for estimating topographic constraints on spatial patterns of recharge and discharge and discuss how this index has proven useful in research, management, and conservation contexts. The Michigan Rivers Inventory subsurface flux model (MRI-DARCY) used digital elevation and hydraulic conductivity inferred from mapped surficial geology to estimate spatial patterns of hydraulic potential. Model predictions were calculated in units of specific discharge (meters per day) for a 30-m²-cell raster map and interpreted as an index of potential subsurface water flux (shallow groundwater and event through-flow). The model was evaluated by comparison with measurements of groundwater-related attributes at watershed, stream segment, and local spatial scales throughout Lower Michigan (USA). Map-based predictions using MRI-DARCY accounted for 85% of the observed variation in base flow from 128 USGS gauges, 69% of the observed variation in discharge accrual from 48 river segments, and 29% of the residual variation in local groundwater flux from 33 locations as measured by hyporheic temperature profiles after factoring out the effects of climate. Although it does not incorporate any information about the actual water table surface, by quantifying spatial variation of key constraints on groundwater-related attributes, the model provides strata for more intensive study, as well as a useful spatial tool for regional and local conservation planning, fisheries management, wetland characterization, and stream assessment.     

Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.     

Mineralogical compositions of aquifer matrix as necessary initial conditions in reactive contaminant transport models

Mineralogical compositions and their spatial distributions are important initial conditions for reactive transport modeling. However, popular Kd-based "reactive" transport models only require contaminant concentrations in the pore fluids as initial conditions, and minerals implicitly represent infinite sources and sinks in these models. That situation results in a general neglect of mineralogical characterization in site investigations. This study uses a coupled multi-component reactive mass transport model to predict the natural attenuation of a ground water plume at a uranium mill tailings site in western USA. Numerous ground water geochemistry data are available at this site, but mineralogical data are sketchy. Even given the well-defined pore fluid chemistry, variations of secondary mineral species and mineral abundances in the aquifer resulted in significantly different modeling outcomes. Results show that the amount of calcite in the aquifer determines the distances of plume migration. The possible presence of jurbanite, an aluminum sulfate phase, can store acidity temporarily but cause more severe contamination on a later date. The surfaces of iron oxyhydroxides can store significant amounts of sulfate and protons and serve as a second source for prolonged contamination. These simulations under field conditions illustrate that mineralogical compositions are an essential requirement for accurate prediction of contaminant fate and transport.     

An application of 3D gasdynamic modeling for the prediction of overpressures in vented enclosures

A three-dimensional gasdynamic model with constant burning rate is applied for the prediction of the maximum pressure rise from gaseous combustion in vented enclosures. A series of calculations for an enclosure with aspect ratio close to unity are presented. Both cases with and without obstacles in the enclosure are considered. Results of calculations are compared with a simple 0D solution for spherical vessels. It is shown that, in cases without obstacles, the 0D solution for the maximum reduced overpressures is close to the predictions of the detailed modeling. In cases with obstacles, the detailed simulation gives significantly higher overpressures than those from the 0D model. However, in all the cases the reduced pressures are correlated well with the maximum flame surface area.     

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure–State–Response and Nitrogen Source Apportionment

A eutrophication assessment method was developed as part of the National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Program. The program is designed to improve monitoring and assessment of eutrophication in the estuaries and coastal bays of the United States with the intent to guide management plans and develop analytical and research models and tools for managers. These tools will help guide and improve management success for estuaries and coastal resources. The assessment method, a Pressure-State-Response approach, uses a simple model to determine Pressure and statistical criteria for indicator variables (where applicable) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic, although research models are being developed to improve that component. The three components are determined individually and then combined into a single rating. Application to several systems in the European Union (E.U.), specifically in Portugal, shows that the method is transferable, and thus is useful for development of management measures in both the Unites States and E.U. This approach identifies and quantifies the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can target inputs for maximum effect. Because nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, examples of source identification and quantification for nitrogen have been developed for 11 coastal watersheds on the U.S. east coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern United States receive most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic (Pamlico Sound), which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff. Source identification is important for implementing effective management measures that should be monitored for success using assessment methods, as described herein. For instance, these results suggest that Northeastern estuaries would likely benefit most from improved sewage treatment, where as the Mid and South Atlantic systems would benefit most from agricultural runoff reductions.     

Diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii in oligotrophic versus eutrophic culture: models and ultrastructure

Populations of marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii were grown in continuous cultures enriched with f/2 medium. One of the two contrasting cultures (‘eutrophic’) received 5.6 times more nutrients than the other (‘oligotrophic’). Two mathematical models are analyzed to estimate eutrophication differences. The second model based on the Michaelis–Menten uptake and Droop growth shows that cells in the eutrophic culture should have about 56% higher content of silica which is the limiting nutrient. Diatom samples were prepared for the transmission electron microscopy after cells have been kept in chemostats for 37 days. The structure of diatom cells was investigated and a comparison is made between cells grown in oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. In eutrophic culture, dividing cells were encountered more frequently while cell concentration was approximately equal in both chemostats. The central vacuole of cells in eutrophic culture accumulated dispersed and compact material from amorphous to spherical shape. In some cells the large central vacuole had fibrilar and peppered dense materials in addition to translucent granules, vesicules and multivesicular bodies. In the cytoplasm we found increased number of multivesicular bodies, dense and lucent granules some of which enclose membrane particles and lucent vesicules. Dense material depositions observed in the vacuole are also seen in the cytoplasm associated with organelles, mitochondria and plasmalemma. Cells have well-developed, active and slightly increased number of dictyosomes (5–6). Some dictyosomes with dense secretory material in the cistern are apparently engaged in a granule formation process. Functional significance of dense material in the central vacuole, which has not been observed in cells grown in oligotrophic condition, is discussed.