基于信息熵理论的泥石流沟谷危险度评价

泥石流沟谷是一个复杂的地貌系统,有其发生、发展和衰退的过程.文章从系统科学和地貌学的角度出发,运用了能综合表述地貌演化特征的因子-地貌系统信息熵对泥石流沟谷进行危险度评价,研究以昆明市东川城区后山深沟、石羊沟和尼姑拉沟为试点,对各泥石流沟的信息熵进行了计算.结果表明,深沟和石羊沟的地貌信息熵值分别为0.124和0.174,泥石流沟谷正由发育的中年末期向老年期演化;尼古拉沟的信息熵值为0.246,正处于沟谷发育的旺盛时期,计算结果与当地实际情况有较好的一致性.     

粘性泥石流运动模型的实验研究

粘性泥石流运动模型的研究因受实验条件的限制,还很不完善。国内外学者应用较多的５种模型都有一定的适用性,但也都存在不同的缺陷。本文应用粘性泥石流土样中的细颗粒和粗颗粒进行流变实验,不仅得到了粗颗粒在浆体中的沉降特性和泥石流体的流变特性,还研究了粘性泥石流运动模型及其参数。所提模型能很好地反映泥石流体的流变特性,较现有的５种模型能更好地描述粘性泥石流。     

复合填料热传导过程数值模拟

复合填料由废铸砂、粉煤灰、聚苯乙烯(EPS)颗粒、水泥和水按一定质量比例混合制成,具有低导热性、抗冻胀和轻质特性。根据热阻力法则和比等效导热系数相等法则,将材料视为由大量正方形单元体组成,其中心为一个球形EPS颗粒,这种单元体与总体的导热系数相等。运用AN SY S软件对复合填料单元体的传热过程进行了有限元模拟,根据瞬态法导热系数测试原理,推求不同EPS掺入比情况下的复合填料导热系数,分析EPS颗粒与导热系数的关系,发现材料导热系数随着EPS掺入比的增加而快速降低。将材料导热系数数值模拟与实测结果作比较,发现有限元模拟值与实测值接近,说明采用有限元方法可以实现对材料传热过程的模拟。     

盾构隧道的开挖模拟及地震反应数值分析

由于盾构隧道掘进的特殊施工工艺,使开挖模拟的数值计算存在着诸多难以量化的因素。采用应力释放法模拟盾构隧道的开挖,在衬砌和土体之间设置等代层单元模拟盾构施工的影响,求得竣工期的应力场和位移场。在静力计算基础上运用动力有限元时程分析法,采用粘性人工边界条件,分析了隧道衬砌在地震过程中的最大响应。其结果和规律可为一般的盾构隧道地震反应分析提供借鉴。     

Effects of Flow Augmentations in the Snake River Basin on Farms Profitability1

Abstract: For over 10 years, several species of salmon have been identified as either threatened or endangered in the Snake River Basin of Idaho. The United States Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has proposed a variety of plans to increase stream flows in the Snake River Basin to facilitate movement by juvenile salmon smolts to the ocean. This research examines two of the flow augmentation plans proposed by the Bureau of Reclamation as well as two alternative plans, one founded purely on existing priority‐based water rights and another geared toward minimizing the effects of flow augmentations on farms profitability. Results from a basin‐wide model of agricultural production in the Snake River Basin, the Snake River Agricultural Model, present evidence that (1) older water rights are used towards production of less valuable crops, (2) flow augmentation scenarios have unequal effects on farms profitability across agricultural regions within the basin, and (3) irrigation water is valued from US$4 to US$59 an acre‐foot.     

Characterizing Storm Hydrograph Rise and Fall Dynamics With Stream Stage Data1

Abstract: Storm‐flow transients (i.e., hydrograph rise and fall dynamics) may represent an important aspect of understanding streamflow dynamics. However, little is known about how temporal resolution of transient data and climate variability may color these potential indicators of hydrologic pattern or condition. Warm‐season stream stage and rainfall were monitored continuously (5 min) during the 2002 water year in eight tributaries of the Little Miami River (Ohio), which drain 17‐58 km² catchments. Rise rates generated using 5‐min data were different than those generated with mean daily data [calculated with the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software], though fall rates were similar for fine and coarse temporal data. This result suggests that data with low temporal resolution may not be adequate to fully represent the dynamics of storm rise rates. Conversely, fall rates based on daily stage data (via IHA) were similar to those based on the 5‐min data, and so daily mean data may be appropriate for characterizing fall rates. We next analyzed the possible correlations between rainfall variability and storm‐flow stage dynamics. We derived rise and recession rates from storm stage hydrographs by assuming exponential rise and decay of a runoff peak. We found that raw rise rates (R_raw) were correlated with both the maximum rainfall rate and the time to the centroid of a rain event. We subsequently removed the trend based on these rainfall characteristics, which yielded new representations of rise rates abbreviated as R_rate and R_tcent, respectively, and that had lower variability than the uncorrected (raw) data. Fall rates were found to be independent of rainfall characteristics. Due to the predominant influence of stream hydrology upon aquatic biota and nutrient fluxes, our work suggests that these stage data analysis protocols can refine or otherwise reduce variability in these indices by accounting for relevant factors such as rainfall forcing. These protocols for derivation of transient indices should be tested for their potential to improve correlations between stream hydrology and temporally aligned biotic data and dissolved nutrient fluxes in streams.     

Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests

Many forests in the Alps are acknowledged for protecting objects, such as (rail) roads, against rockfall. However, there is a lack of knowledge on efficient silvicultural strategies and interventions to maintain these forests at optimal protection level. Therefore, assessment tools are required that quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands over time, and thereby provide the ability to evaluate the necessity and effect of management interventions. This paper introduces such a tool that consists of a 3D rockfall module embedded in the patch based forest simulator PICUS. The latter is extended for this study with a new regeneration module. In a series of experiments the new combined simulation tool is evaluated with regard to parameter sensitivity, model intercomparison experiments with recently proposed algorithms from the literature, and the ability to respond realistically to different management regimes in rockfall protection forests. Results confirm the potential of the new tool for realistic simulation of rockfall activity in heterogeneous mountain forests, but point at the urgent need to improve the knowledge base on the interaction of understory and rockfall activity. Further work will focus on model validation against empirical rockfall data, and include reduced tree vitality due to damage from boulder collisions as well as the explicit consideration of downed dead wood.     

人为泥石流起动及产沙放水冲刷实验——以神府-东胜矿区为例

神府东胜矿区位于黄土高原北部干旱半旱过度地带。由于煤田的大量开采,诱发了大量的环境问题,尤以人为泥石流最为严重,本文以神府－东胜矿区人为泥石流为研究对象,采用人工放水冲刷模拟的方法,分析了坡面型和沟谷型泥石流源地松散体起动、产沙、泥石流过程的特性,所得结论为：（１）放水历时长,强度大,有利于泥石流的形成;（２）弃土石渣起动,是该区泥石流固体物质的主体;（３）沟道型泥石流放水冲刷模拟实验,便于观测石     

燃气爆炸作用下房屋裂缝开展的分形模拟

烯气爆炸灾害下房屋裂纹开展有的模式与受均布压力破坏时的相同,在参照实验所得混凝土裂缝的分形维数资源的基础上编制了相应的软件,利用分形插值的方法实现裂缝开展的模拟,模拟结果较好地反映了裂缝发展的真实情况,且较以往的模拟方法节约了大量存储空间。     

迎接地震观测技术的新变革

回顾了地震观测技术发展的三个阶段及其特点。简要总结了随着这几个阶段的技术进步南京基准地震台观测技术的重要变革 ,并从记录地震事件数量、大地震速报作用和推动某些研究的深入等方面评估了由于这些技术进步所带来的地震台效能的提高。对目前地震观测技术从模拟观测向数字观测的转折时期 ,地震台如何尽快过渡 ,充分发挥效能提出了初步对策。