有机磷农药毒性预测模型研究

选用化合物分子拓扑学的信息理论指数、价分子连接性指数，运用多元非线性回归分析，对１１４种有机磷农药大鼠经口、小鼠经口及大鼠经皮急性毒性ＬＤ５０、神经毒性作用进行了定量预测分析。回归模型相关指数Ｒ＾２均在０．８１以上，残差呈正态分布，预测效果满意，显示了系统具有较强的预测能力。     

Analyzing spatial count data,with an application to weed counts

Count data on a lattice may arise in observational studies of ecological phenomena. In this paper a hierarchical spatial model is used to analyze weed counts. Anisotropy is introduced, and a bivariate extension of the model is presented.     

Asymmetric circular-linear multivariate regression models with applications to environmental data

We propose asymmetric angular-linear multivariate regression models, which were motivated by the need to predict some environmental characteristics based on some circular and linear predictors. A measure of fit is provided through the residual analysis. Some applications using data from solar energy radiation experiment and wind energy are given. Received: September 2003 / Revised: February 2005     

Evaluation of joint toxicity of heavy metals and herbicide mixtures in soils to earthworms (Eisenia fetida)

It is widely acknowledged that a simplified and robust approach to evaluating thecombined effects of chemical mixtures is critical for ecological risk assessment (ERA) of contaminated soil. The earthworm (Eisenia fetida) was used as a model to study the combined effects of polymetallic contamination and the herbicide siduron in field soil using a microcosm experiment. The responses of multiple biomarkers, including the activities of catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione reductase (GR) and acetylcholine esterase (AChE), the concentrations of glycogen, soluble protein (SP), malonaldehyde (MDA), and metallothionein (MT), and the neutral red uptake test (NRU), were investigated. Multivariate analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Spearman's Rank Correlations analysis (BVSTEP) revealed that the activities of AChE and CAT and the NRU content were the prognostic biomarkers capturing the minimum data set of all the variables. Internal Cd (tissue Cd) in earthworms was closely related to the health status of worms under combined contamination of heavy metals and siduron. The integrated effect (E_mix) calculated based on the activities of AChE and CAT and NRU content using the stress index method had significantly linear regression with internal Cd (p<0.01). E_mix(10), E_mix(20), and E_mix(50) were then calculated, at 1.27, 1.63 and 2.71 mg/kg dry weight, respectively. It could be concluded that a bioassay-based approach incorporating multivariate analysis and internal dose was pragmatic and applicable to evaluating combined effects of chemical mixtures in soils under the guidance of the top-down evaluation concept of combined toxicity.     

Recognition on trigger condition of autonomous emergency braking system

Introduction: Automobiles carrying an autonomous emergency braking system (AEBS) are currently prevailing. While the reduction of traffic accidents is expected because of the widespread use of the system, concerns as regards many drivers using the system without proper understanding of the trigger conditions (TCs) have arisen. This research aims to grasp the degree of recognition of the AEBS TCs by a driver with a vehicle equipped with the system. Method: Using a web research company, we sent a survey sheet for screening to 9999 monitors randomly selected by gender and age group and confirmed own vehicle with an autonomous braking system ownership status. The number of answer targets was 200 for each of the four groups divided by age and gender. In this research, we developed a multivariate analysis model with the degree of understanding the AEBS TCs as the objective variable. The explanatory variables of this model were “Driver characteristics” and “Contact opportunities of information on the AEBS.” Results: Using PCA’s main component scores as the objective variable, two types of multiple regression models were constructed according to the AEBS TCs (do not work properly and work accidentally). The model analysis showed that gender, age, confidence in driving skill, and experience of the AEBS before purchasing are significant variables in both models. The recognition of the conditions of the “AEBS does not work properly” was influenced by the information-gathering ability and the degree of reference to various information. In contrast, the recognition of the conditions of the “AEBS work accidentally” was influenced by the interest of automobiles, such as the importance of automobile for self-expression and explanation taken up in a car magazine. Conclusions: This study clarified the driver characteristics and contact opportunities of information that have problems in recognizing the AEBS TCs. Practical Applications: Considering measures, such as public relations, utilizing this result will be meaningful in terms of road safety in the current stage, which is the transitional period of the AEBS.     

Evaluation of the interaction between soil and antibiotics

The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of tetracycline and sulfonamide antibiotics in 13 different soil samples collected from agricultural fields. As well as the antibiotic analysis 18 different physicochemical properties of the soil samples were determined in order to establish a relationship between the recovery rates of antibiotics from the samples and the characteristics of the samples that provide critical information for the reliability of an applied antibiotic analysis method. While the concentrations of tetracyclines were 0.025–0.105 mg kg^?1 sulfonamide antibiotics were not detected in any investigated soil samples. The mean recovery rates of tetracyclines and sulfonamides were 84.57 ± 14.92% and 65.88 ± 8.56%, respectively. Although, the organic carbon contents and cation exchange capacities of the soil samples exhibited a great variation the results of multivariate statistical analysis indicated that the metal content of soils was the major factor significantly influenced the recovery rates of the antibiotics. The sulfonamide recovery rates were positively influenced by the calcium and magnesium amounts in the soil samples, whereas tetracycline recovery rates were markedly diminished by increasing the amount of these polyvalent metals.     

Relation between forest vegetation, atmospheric deposition and site conditions at regional and European scales

Several monitoring programs have been set up to assess effects of atmospheric deposition on forest ecosystems. The aim of the present study was to evaluate effects on the understorey vegetation, based on the first round of a regional (the Netherlands) and a European forest monitoring program. A multivariate statistical analysis showed surprisingly similar results for both data sets; the vegetation appeared to be largely determined by the ‘traditional’ factors soil, climate, and tree species, but there was a small but statistically significant effect of atmospheric deposition. The effects of deposition include a slight shift towards nitrophytic species at high N deposition in the European network, and towards acidophytic species at high S-deposition in the Dutch network. The relatively small effect of atmospheric deposition is understandable in view of the very large natural variation in environmental conditions. Time series of both vegetation and environment are needed to assess deposition effects in detail.     

Is bark pH more important than tree species in determining the composition of nitrophytic or acidophytic lichen floras?

To study the pH preference of epiphytic lichens, the bark pH of Fraxinus, Tilia, Quercus and Ulmus trees in an urban environment was measured using a flat surface electrode. The total number of trees was 253. A survey was made of the lichens in a 40 × 40 cm quadrat surrounding the pH measurement point. Our data analysis using multivariate and univariate statistical techniques indicates that the tree species is the most important factor influencing lichen colonisation, and that bark pH alone is of less importance. We hypothesize that the changed pollution climate, with strong decreases in both sulphur dioxide and ammonia concentrations over the past two decades and a concomitant general increase in bark pH, has made epiphytes less sensitive to pH.     

The Seasonal Variation of the Concentrations of Ozone, Sulfur Dioxide, and Nitrogen Oxides in Two Nigerian Cities

A combination of multivariate statistical methods including factor analysis, principal component analysis, principal component regression, and multiple linear regression (MLR) were employed to evaluate the influence of seasons on the concentrations of ozone, sulfur (IV) oxide, and oxides of nitrogen in ambient air of Nigerian cities of Lagos and Ilorin. The former city is located in the coastal area, and it is highly congested with a high intensity of marine, vehicular, and industrial activities, and the latter city is a medium size town, located in the central guinea savannah zone of Nigeria. Samples were collected using a high-volume sampler from near the ground at various sites of diverse human and industrial activities, during wet and dry seasons from 2003 to 2006. The PCA reveals three distinct groupings during the day for all data, which is a reflection of different factors contributing to the atmospheric chemistry of these cities. The predicted ozone concentration values by MLR agree fairly well with the measured data. The dependence of ozone on meteorological parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, and sun exposure and the precursor pollutants depends on weather and the anthropogenic activities. The results for the two cities indicate that reduction in the level of NO₂ is accompanied by an increase in the level of ozone, suggesting the interconversion between the two via photochemical activity.     

Spatial variations in selected metal contents and particle size distribution in an urban and rural atmosphere of Islamabad, Pakistan

Spatial variations in total suspended particulate matter (TSP) were investigated for distribution of metals and particle size fractions in the urban and rural atmosphere of Islamabad, Pakistan. The metals Na, K, Fe, Mn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Zn, Ni and Co, and the particle fractions <2.5, 2.5-10, 10-100 and >100 microm were included in the study. TSP samples were trapped on glass fibre filters using high volume samplers and quantification of metals was done using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry employing HNO(3) based wet digestion. At the urban site, Na was dominant at 2.384 microg/m(3) followed by K, Fe and Zn with 0.778, 0.667 and 0.567 microg/m(3) as mean concentrations, respectively. The metal levels for the rural site ranged from 0.002 microg/m(3) for Cd to 1.077 microg/m(3) for Na. However, compared with the urban site, mean Pb concentration showed an almost two-fold enhancement, i.e., 0.163 Vs. 0.327 microg/m(3). Metals and particle size source identification was done using Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis. Five sources were traced out for the urban site: industrial, soil, automobile emissions, metallurgical industries and excavation activities. For the rural site, four sources were recorded: agricultural, automotive emissions, excavation activities and metallurgical units. Collectively, for both the sites, PM(10-100) emerged as a major contributor to TSP, followed by PM(2.5-10), PM(<2.5) and PM(>100) in that order. The metals showed in general positive relationship with fine particulate fractions (PM(2.5-10), PM(<2.5)), and negative correlation with coarse fractions (PM(10-100), PM(>100)). Comparison with the corresponding data from various Asian sites revealed that the levels of Na, K, Fe, Mn, Co and Ni for the present study were lower than those reported for grossly polluted cities of the world.