保险,减灾与发展之关联及对策

通过对保险公司经营方式的分析，阐述了近年来自然灾害大幅度止升对保险业稳定发展的影响以及保险公司在减灾防灾中拥有的信息，人员，管理以及工作方式等方面的优势，并对保险公司与社各界的合作领域及内容提出了自己的见解。     

简析自然灾害地理研究的几个问题

在分析自然灾害地理研究中存在的问题和发展趋势的基础上，重点探讨了自然灾害地理研究的层次，并提出了自然灾害地理研究重点区域及重点研究领域等问题。     

长江口未来环境演变的若干影响因子及减灾对策

三峡水库建成、南水北调逐步实施和沿江抽水加剧将使下一世纪长江入海水沙特征发生重大变化；长江口相对海面在未来１００年中将上升１ｍ左右；全球气温上升将使本区夏季降水增多、台风频率增大。下世纪在这些因素影响下：（１）长江口海岸工程需增加投入约相当于现有工程量的１／２，方能维持现有的安全系数；（２）潮滩湿地将动态损失相当于现有面积的５０％以上；（３）冲刷岸段将增多，淤涨岸段将减少；（４）洪涝威胁将明显加重，需将抽排水能力提高４～５倍；（５）因海面上升引起的特枯季节灾害性海（咸）水入侵则可望通过三峡水库的调节功能得以控制。     

渭河“95.8”高水位洪水灾害成因及对策

分析了渭河下游“９５．８”洪水的特征；论述了出现小水量、高水位、大灾害的原因，提出了渭河下游及陕西三门峡库区的防汛对策。     

山东省1995年灾情及其特点

详述了１９９５年发生于山东省范围内的各类灾害情况，总结分析了１９９５年山东省灾情的特点。     

Quantifying natural resource injuries and ecological service reductions: challenges and opportunities

The natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) provisions of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Oil Pollution Act (OPA) are complex and have been difficult to implement. The complexity and difficulty in implementation arise both from the assessment procedures specified in agency NRDA guidance and from the limited ability of ecologists to quantify impacts of hazardous substances on natural resources. This paper explores the scientific aspects of NRDA implementation, and discusses conceptual and methodological relationships between NRDA and the much broader field of ecological risk assessment (ERA). We discuss three critical components of the NRDA assessment approach: measuring natural resource injuries and reductions in resource services; evaluating causality; and establishing baseline conditions. We identify (1) specific approaches drawn from ERA practice that could improve each of these components, and (2) research needs and institutional changes that may improve the ability of the NRDA process to achieve its stated objectives. We recommend the acceleration of the ongoing dialogue among NRDA practitioners from the Trustee and PRP communities as a first step toward resolving the procedural and technical deficiencies of the NRDA process.     

Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

Refuting the paradigm of water services privatisation

The aim of this article is to question the fundamental assumptions behind privatisation and public–private partnerships. The article shows that instead of radically increasing private sector involvement, public sector reforms should be seriously considered. Public–private partnerships should be implemented so that the strengths of all the stakeholders may be fully utilised.     

自然通风消除热源厂房热害的数值模拟与实践

在有余热余湿的厂房 ,大多采用自然通风。笔者采用k ε紊流模型 ,对某钢铁公司二高线厂房自然通风消除热害进行了数值模拟。将生产线上的散热量作为能量方程的附加源项 ,计算厂房内的速度场和温度场 ,优选出了该热源厂房的通风改造方案 :进风口的标高降低 2m ,在操作平台上设置开孔率为 30 %的通风栅栏板。通过对通风改造前、后厂房内温度实测值的对比 ,厂房工作区平均温度下降 5℃ ,风速由原来的平均 0 .2m/s增加到 1.6m/s,厂房内作业区的热环境有明显改善 ,防止了因热环境问题造成的安全事故 ,提高了工人的生产效率。     

The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.