煤炭企业安全投资保障机制及其系统动力学分析

针对我国目前煤炭企业安全投资保障中所面临的问题,构建了"多方制约、良性互动"的煤炭企业安全投资保障机制,并从该机制各方"互赢"和制约性出发,将政府的安全监察、煤炭行业协会的安全预防、保险公司的安全保险对煤炭企业安全投资的保障作用进行了分析。然后,根据系统动力学(SD)原理,对其动力学特点进行了系统分析和论证。在此基础上,建立了煤炭企业安全投资保障机制的SD模型,并寻求保证煤炭企业一定收益水平的安全投资水平,以改善和优化煤炭企业安全投资保障行为的机会和途径,为综合评价煤炭企业安全投资保障机制运行效果提供了一种思路。     

On the integrated modelling of coastal changes

This paper introduces a possible approach to integrated modelling of coastal change, focusing on coastal land use and cover change. Some of the mostimportant open issues in the context of integrated modelling of coastal change are introduced. The paper focuses on methdological aspects. Specific reference is made to Physiographic Unit Modelling as an approach to better handle spatial variability and ‘morphogenesis’, and as a way to focus on coastal change mechanisms instead of absolute coastal dynamics for achieving an important simplification of the problem. The application is briefly discussed with reference to a ‘minimal model’. The methodological structure introduced is considered particularly suitable to represent, according to a variable degree of simplification, the integrative dynamics between resources and uses of the resources.     

SDS对烟煤润湿性能和机理的分子模拟研究

为探究十二烷基硫酸钠(SDS)对烟煤的润湿机理,首先通过实验分析SDS对烟煤润湿性能影响,然后利用分子模拟对SDS在烟煤表面的润湿过程进行研究。研究结果表明：SDS溶液改善烟煤的润湿性能,全尘、呼吸性粉尘降尘效率分别比纯水提高7.95%和10%;根据轨道能级差和静电势分析得出,SDS分子尾链吸附烟煤表面、头基朝向水中的吸附构型降低水和烟煤的液-固界面张力;SDS分子覆盖烟煤表面后,系统中烟煤与水分子的非键作用能、氢键数量、水分子的起始位点分别由-1 114.91 kcal/mol, 1 810个,1.59?变为-3 405.68 kcal/mol, 1 996个,1.57?,在SDS分子的作用下烟煤表面与水分子结合能力变强,大量水分子通过氢键作用凝聚在头基附近,水分子整体移向烟煤使烟煤表面得到充分的浸润和渗透。研究结果可为新型表面活性剂润湿煤尘性能检验提供参考。     

土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控的系统动力学分析

土地资源优化配置及其环境效应已成为土地科学研究与保障国民经济持续健康发展的重要课题. 运用系统动力学方法,结合土壤质量调查评价,探讨江苏省无锡市区土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控问题. 结果表明:经济社会发展目标与模式在很大程度上决定着土地资源配置格局,并进一步影响到区域生态环境条件和土壤质量;在经济发展优先模式下,无锡市区建设用地扩张迅速,环境负荷加重,粮食产量降低,2030年的综合土壤质量指数比2005年下降1.50;在生态保护优先模式下,无锡市区土地资源的人口承载压力趋缓,建设用地占用耕地现象得到有效控制,粮食产量较稳定,2030年的综合土壤质量指数仅比2005年下降0.57;未来土地资源配置格局应该以生态保护和提高土地资源配置的综合效益为调控重点.      

三江平原小叶章湿地系统硫的输入及输出动态

以三江平原小叶章(Calamagrostis angutifolia)湿地系统为研究对象,应用野外原位观测法研究了小叶章湿地系统硫的大气沉降输入及其输出规律.结果表明大气湿沉降中硫的月均含量变化明显,其原因主要与人类活动、降水强度及频次有关;硫沉降量具有明显的月变化特征,经估算三江平原小叶章湿地硫的年沉降总量(以S计)为113 mg·m-2·a·-1.小叶章湿地H2S、COS的排放通量均具有明显的季节和日变化规律.H2S和COS的平均释放通量(以S计)分别为O.34 μg·m-2·h-1和-0.29μg·m-2·h-1;小叶章湿地系统在生长季向大气排放H2S的量(以S计)为1.42 mg·m-2,从大气吸收COS的量(以S计)为1.83 mg·m-2.小叶章湿地系统硫的输入量远高于硫输出量,其差值为113.41 mg.m-2·a-1,这表明硫在小叶章湿地系统中处于累积状态,湿地存在潜在的酸化趋势.     

An integrated river basin-coast-sea modelling scenario for nitrogen management in coastal waters

Linked river basin and coastal water models were applied to analyse the effects of an optimal nitrogen management scenario in the Oder/Odra river basin on water quality in the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay (Baltic Sea). This scenario would reduce nitrogen loads into the coastal waters by about 35%, a level which is similar to the load of the late 1960’s. During summer the primary production and algae biomass in the Oder estuary is limited by nitrogen, which makes a nitrogen management reasonable. The comparison of the late 1960’s and the mid 1990’s shows that an optimal nitrogen management has positive effects on coastal water quality and algae biomass. However, this realistic nitrogen reduction scenario would not ensure a good coastal water quality according to the European Water Framework Directive. A good water quality in the river will not be sufficient to ensure a good water quality in the lagoon. Nitrogen load reductions bear the risk of increased potentially toxic, blue-green algae blooms, especially in the Baltic coastal sea. However, to reach water quality improvements in lagoons and inner coastal waters, nitrogen cuts are necessary. A mere focus on phosphorus is not sufficient.     

铜绿微囊藻和斜生栅藻生长的氮营养动力学特征

利用批量培养试验比较研究了氮限制条件下铜绿微囊藻(Microcystis aerugiuosa)和斜生栅藻(Scendesmus obliquus)对氮的生长反应,并应用Monod方程计算了2种藻的营养动力学参数(μ_max和K_s). 结果表明,ρ(氮)为0～2.00 mg/L时铜绿微囊藻比增长率快速增长;ρ(氮)为0～4.00 mg/L时斜生栅藻比增长率快速增长. 铜绿微囊藻的最大比增长率(μ_max)为0.23 d-1,半饱和常数(K_s)为0.14 mg/L;斜生栅藻的μ_max为0.41 d-1,K_s为0.24 mg/L. 根据生长动力学参数可以预测,当氮缺乏时,铜绿微囊藻容易形成优势,当氮丰富时,斜生栅藻容易形成优势.      

Pollution perception: A challenge for intergenerational equity

In this article we extend the recent literature on overlapping generations and pollution by allowing generations to perceive the level of pollution differently than the actual level of pollution. We call this pollution perception. Pollution perception can visualize itself as either a concern for the flow of pollution only, or for the stock, or a combination of both. We derive this extension based on empirical evidence from recent advances in behavioural economics.Pollution perception has not only significant consequences for the steady state levels of pollution and capital, but we also find a qualitative change in the dynamics from similar models without pollution perception [A. John, R. Pecchenino, An overlapping generations model of growth and the environment, Econ. J. 104 (1994) 1393–1410]. Specifically, we derive optimal non-linear dynamics through complex eigenvalues and Hopf or Flip bifurcations for a large set of parameters. This leads to violations of two standard criteria of sustainability, suggesting that pollution perception can be another source of intergenerational inequity.     

Soil drying in a tropical forest: Three distinct environments controlled by gap size

Soil water and temperature regimes in the tropical moist forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, were simulated directly from meteorological data using the model SWEAT. Separate field observations from root-exclusion, litter-removal and control treatments in one small and one large forest gap were used for calibration and validation. After irrigating all treatments to field capacity, soil matric potential and temperature were measured over 17 days at four depths ≤50 mm using the filter-paper technique and bead thermistors. Understorey environments were also simulated under the same initial conditions. The results suggest that three distinct scenarios, controlled by gap size, describe how the above- and below-ground processes controlling soil drying are coupled: (1) in the large gap, root water extraction by surrounding trees is negligible so soil drying is dominated by evaporation from the soil surface. Soil temperature is dominated by direct solar heating and cooling due to evaporation. (2) In the small gap, root water extraction dominates soil drying with soil evaporation playing a minor role. Soil temperature is still dominated by direct sunlight with some cooling due to evaporation. (3) In the understorey, root water extraction dominates soil drying. Soil temperature is dominated by heat conduction from deep soil layers with some evaporation and sensible heat transfer. The contrasting soil drying regimes imposed by variation in canopy structure enhance micro-environmental heterogeneity and the scope for differential germination and seedling establishment in coexisting tropical tree species.     

A finite element method to solve a population dynamics stage-structured model of intertidal barnacles

Many marine organisms are fixed or highly sedentary as adults but the adult population may be strongly dependent on the oceanic transport of planktonic larvae. In order to assess interactions between oceanographic and biological processes that determine the population dynamics of marine organisms with a sessile adult phase restricted to the coastline and a planktonic larval phase, we present a stage-structured finite element model for the barnacle Balanus glandula that inhabits the rocky intertidal zone of central California, USA.