太湖氮磷大气干湿沉降时空特征

为了探索太湖氮磷营养盐干湿沉降特征及对太湖营养盐输入的贡献,于2011年不同季节采集太湖不同位点的大气干湿沉降样品,分析干湿沉降中氮（N）和磷（P）的形态和沉降量。研究结果表明,输入太湖的磷以干沉降为主,而氮以湿沉降为主。在太湖干沉降中总无机氮（TIN）占总氮（TN）的77.1%,溶解性磷（DIP）占总磷（TP）的77.9%。干沉降中TIN主要以NH+4-N为主。西太湖是TN与TP通过大气干湿沉降输入太湖的最高湖区。太湖全年大气TN沉降总量为20 978 t,TP沉降总量为1 268 t,因此,氮磷大气干湿沉降是太湖营养盐输入的重要来源之一。     

Design of an Air-Quality Surveillance System for Buenos Aires City Integrated by a NO x Monitoring Network and Atmospheric Dispersion Models

This paper presents an air-quality surveillance system designed to detect the occurrence of air pollutant concentrations greater than a reference level in an urban area. The system is integrated by an air-quality monitoring network and atmospheric dispersion models simulations. An objective methodology to design an urban air-quality monitoring network is proposed. This methodology is based on the analysis of air-quality modelling results. The procedure is applied to design an air-quality monitoring network to control NO _x concentration levels in Buenos Aires City. Results indicate that six monitors will detect the occurrence of concentration greater than the air-quality guidelines with an efficiency of about 67%. Once a violation is detected, results of atmospheric dispersion models will help in the determination of affected areas. Four possible examples are included to illustrate the assistance that the results of atmospheric dispersion models can bring to a better estimation of possible affected areas in the city. Combining these results with the last census data, an estimation of the inhabitants possibly exposed is obtained.     

The development of loads of cations, anions, Cd and Pb in precipitation and of atmospheric concentrations of N-components, in Switzerland from 1988 to 2003

This study presents the results of the analyses of Cd, Pb, cations and anions present in precipitation and dust at a pre-alpine and a suburban site in Switzerland in the period from 1988 to 2003. The aim of these measurements was to monitor the success of measures taken to diminish pollutant emissions. No change was found for Ca²⁺, K⁺, Na⁺ and Mg²⁺ loads – in line with expectations, as no reducing measures had been taken. Statistically significant and largely decreasing values (50–90%) were found for Cl⁻ and Cd (linked to the fitting of filters in incineration plants), Pb (unleaded petrol), (diminishing the use of mineral oil with high S content), and the proton (lower HCl and SO₂ emissions). A smaller decrease (up to 30%) or none was registered for oxidised nitrogen components (fitting cars with catalytic converters, but an increase in numbers of cars and trucks). No significant change was found for NH₃ as farming techniques had undergone no major changes. The long-term measurements show that the measures taken to reduce emissions were successful. A shorter monitoring period would have been misleading owing to data variability and temporary incidents e.g. amount of precipitation.     

Forest cover change and fragmentation using Landsat data in Maçka State Forest Enterprise in Turkey

In this study, Grey model (GM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to predict suspended solids (SSeff) and chemical oxygen demand (CODeff) in the effluent from a wastewater treatment plant in industrial park of Taiwan. When constructing model or predicting, the influent quality or online monitoring parameters were adopted as the input variables. ANN was also adopted for comparison. The results indicated that the minimum MAPEs of 16.13 and 9.85% for SSeff and CODeff could be achieved using GMs when online monitoring parameters were taken as the input variables. Although a good fitness could be achieved using ANN, they required a large quantity of data. Contrarily, GM only required a small amount of data (at least four data) and the prediction results were even better than those of ANN. Therefore, GM could be applied successfully in predicting effluent when the information was not sufficient. The results also indicated that these simple online monitoring parameters could be applied on prediction of effluent quality well.     

厌氧、缺氧、好氧多级交替SBR脱氮除磷试验研究

以实际生活污水为研究对象,采用厌氧、缺氧、好氧多级交替序批式反应器(SBR)工艺,通过曝气时间、交替次数的凋整对该系统的脱氮除磷效果进行了研究,最终将工艺确定为厌氧1.5 h-好氧1.0h-缺氧1.0h-好氧20 min-缺氧 1.0 h-好氧20min.试验结果表明:该系统与传统的SBR相比节省了44%的曝气量,且对COD、TN、TP去除率分别达85%、78%、99.5%,同时发现曝气过程 NO2-N和NO3-N的累积可能会对好氧吸磷产生抑制作用.     

人工湿地污水处理系统中的植物氮磷吸收富集能力研究

比较研究了人工湿地污水处理系统中7种植物对氮、磷的吸收能力.研究表明,所选7种湿地植物,稳定生长4个月后,平均总生物量在1 215～3 500 g/m2,植物氮、磷平均质量浓度分别为13.76～23.11、1.44～3.80 mg/g.香蒲具有最高氮积累量达48.18 g/m2,梭鱼草具有最高磷积累量为7.23 g/m2,姜草对氮、磷的积累量最低分别为21.40、1.68 g/m2.植物地上部氮、磷积累量与地下部的氮、磷积累量差异较大,除姜草外,植物地上部、地下部的氮、磷积累量比均大于3,黄花美人蕉地上部、地下部的氮、磷积累量比分别达11.75、12.10.通过植物收割去除氮、磷量约占湿地总去除量的2%～6%.     

重大疫情衍生社会恐慌链式灾害应急策略研究——基于COVID-19疫情的SD分析

重大疫情传染的负外部性在严重损害公众健康的同时衍生社会恐慌,这是保障人民生命安全和社会稳定的国家治理现代化背景下,一个新风险源和应急管理难题.基于灾害链视角,运用系统动力学(SD)方法对经典的传染病SIR模型进行升级与转化,构建一个同时包含疫情动态传播及其衍生社会恐慌的链式灾害应急系统模型,以COVID-19疫情为例进...     

Modelling crayfish population dynamics using catch data: A size-structured model

In this study we explore a rather unique time series (1979–2002) of catch data of the crayfish Astacus astacus in Lake Steinsfjorden (SE Norway) in combination with temperature data and data on Canadian pondweed Elodea canadensis coverage. In 1977, E. canadensis was for the first time observed in the lake. Over the following years, the plant established dense covers over large parts of the shallow areas, excluding the crayfish from these areas and causing a sudden drop in population size. A size-structured model with bi-stability including a range of observed stage-specific life-cycle attributes (e.g. growth, fecundity, fertility, sex-ratio), population specific parameters and density-dependant (shelters, cannibalism, unspecified predators, competition between individuals, catch, number of traps) as well as density independent factors (temperature and Elodea coverage) were constructed to evaluate the various drivers for the population dynamics, and as a predictive tool for assessing the effects of future changes. Our model revealed that the decline primarily was due to density-dependant effect of the Elodea expansion with reduced number of hides and thus increased risk for predation and cannibalism, but also that temperature played an important role related to recruitment. The model should be relevant for crayfish stock management in general, and by demonstrating the major role of temperature, it is also relevant for predicting population responses under a changing climate. The model should also be applicable to other crustaceans and species with discrete growth and late maturation.     

Competition, predation and coexistence in a three trophic system

Simple ecological models that mostly operate with population densities using continuous variables, explain quite well the behavior of real populations. In this work we propose and discuss the continuous dynamics of a system of three species, which belongs to the well-known family of Lotka–Volterra models. In particular, the proposed model includes direct effects such as predation and competition among species, and indirect effects such as refuge. The model is proposed to explain recent studies about a group of crustacean (amphipods of genus Hyallela) found in all the plain streams and shallow lakes of the American continent. The studied system includes three compartments: algae, a strictly herbivore amphipod and an omnivore (herbivore and carnivore) one. The analysis of the model shows that there are stable extinction equilibria throughout all the parameters’ space. There are also equilibria with stable coexistence of the three species and two interesting binary equilibria: one with stable coexistence of algae and herbivore and other with coexistence between algae and omnivore amphipods. The presence of Allee effect in the algae growth and the existence of refuge for the herbivore amphipod (prey) determine a bottom-up control.     

Zooplankton population model coupled to a biogeochemical model of the North Western Mediterranean Sea ecosystem

A stage structured population (SSP) model based on Fennel's [Fennel, W., 2001. Modelling copepods with links to circulation models. Journal of Plankton Research, 23, 1217–1232] equations is applied to Centropages typicus (Kröyer), a dominant copepod species of the North Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) and a prey of small pelagic fish. The model considers five groups of stages and development rates are represented by a mechanistic formulation depending on individual specific growth in each stage. Individual growth is calculated from the individual energy budget depending on food availability and temperature.