Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species’ current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.     

基于Mann-Kendall法的湖泊稳态转换突变分析

采用变化趋势与倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和突变点分析法对1981~2008年间太湖湖泊稳态转换关键因子总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)和叶绿素a(Chla)进行突变识别,结果表明,(1)TN、TP和Chla分别在0.05、0.10和0.05水平上呈显著增加趋势;(2)TN浓度在1990~1991年间和1994~1995年间发生了两次突变;TP浓度突变点发生在1987~1988年;Chla浓度历史变化存在三个阶段,1981~1989年为第一阶段,尚未产生突变阶段,第二阶段为1990~1996年,突变过渡阶段,第三阶段为1997~2008年,属于突变后的状态;(3)综合TN、TP和Chla浓度历史变化存在不同阶段,结合各因子的历史变化序列,太湖湖泊稳态转换突变点为1988年和1997年,并把太湖划分为三个阶段,第一阶段为1981~1987年, TP浓度为0.025mg/L,属于草藻共存,接近于清水稳态阶段;第二阶段为1988~1996年, TP浓度为0.086mg/L,属于藻草共存阶段;第三阶段为1997到2008年, TP浓度为0.103mg/L,属于藻型浊水稳态.研究结果表明Mann-Kendall法在湖泊稳态转换突变分析中具有一定的适用性.     

海洋石油轮班作业风险定量分析方法研究

长期以来,海洋石油领域风险研究主要集中在对设施的潜在失效概率和后果研究方面,而对于人员可靠性及风险管理方面的研究较弱。然而,据统计资料显示,海上设施在其生命周期内的设计、建造和生产作业等各个阶段中发生的事故大多与人为错误和组织错误（HOE）有关联。在海洋工程领域,开展人员可靠性分析（HRA）的研究工作具有重要意义。根据海上作业的特殊性及轮班制度的特点,推导出轮班风险的定量分析公式,据此计算出每个工作日轮班风险的相对大小,然后结合我国海上作业的实际情况,对影响轮班风险的可变因素进行了敏感性分析,为风险控制与管理提供参考。     

Changing nutrient levels in Lake Maurepas following human population shifts in response to Hurricane Katrina

Following Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, as many as 57% of residents in some parishes in the Lower Lake Pontchartrain Basin were displaced from their homes. Concurrently, the population in the Upper Lake Pontchartrain Basin, which drains into Lake Maurepas, increased by 62,000 residents, leading to increased residential and urban land use. These changes led to significant increases in phosphate and silicate concentrations in Lake Maurepas that are likely caused by non-point source pollution through erosion from new construction sites, fertilisation of new lawns and stress to existing wastewater treatment facilities. Average phosphate concentrations at three sites in Lake Maurepas increased by 76–205% and silicate levels increased by 60–83% compared with data collected in 2003 prior to the hurricane. Discharge-weighted averages increased even more dramatically, with phosphate and silicate concentrations increasing up to 161 and 394%, respectively. Discharge-weighted silicate and phosphate concentrations were 2.5 and 3.4 times greater than in 2003, respectively. Discharge-weighted silicate levels were 3.9 times greater than similar measurements from 1963. These large increases in nutrient and discharge-weighted nutrient concentrations are indicative of increased human population in the Upper Lake Pontchartrain Basin following Hurricane Katrina.     

Should all disaster risks be reduced? A perspective from the systems concept of the edge of chaos

The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.     

An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.     

磁性纳米Fe3O4@C对SBR脱氮除磷性能及其微生物种群组成的影响

为探究磁性纳米Fe₃O₄@C对序批式活性污泥反应器（SBR）污水处理系统脱氮除磷性能的影响,建立了2个相同的SBR（编号分别为0号和1号）,其中,0号反应器未投加任何磁性材料（对照组）,1号反应器中投加0.5 g·L^-1的Fe₃O₄@C（实验组）,并采用高通量测序和实时定量PCR（qPCR）技术对2个反应器内生物种群结构及关键脱氮除磷功能菌群进行分析.结果表明：①Fe₃O₄@C对SBR除污性能有显著影响,其中,1号反应器化学需氧量（COD）的去除性能得到增强,24 d后去除率稳定在90%左右;0号和1号反应器总氮（TN）平均去除率分别为35.83%和52.18%;从第43 d起,1号反应器除磷性能明显高于0号反应器,运行70 d后,0号和1号反应器对总磷（TP）的平均去除率分别为47.52%和56.33%.②添加Fe₃O₄@C材料后,反应器内变形菌门（Proteobacteria）的相对丰度从23.91%增加至32.14%,优势脱氮菌门Planctomycetes、Nitrospirae的相对丰度分别从2.66%、0.46%增加至5.16%、2.23%.③添加Fe₃O₄@C后,SBR内细菌总数明显增多,16S基因拷贝数从1.77×10⁷ copies·g^-1增长到4.21×10⁷ copies·g^-1;各功能菌数量也有大幅度增长,除磷功能基因PAO增加了3.4倍,脱氮功能基因nirS、Nitrospira、Nitrobacter、AOB分别增长了2.3、2.4、4.7和572倍.研究表明,磁性纳米Fe₃O₄@C能有效促进SBR脱氮除磷性能,可为SBR工艺的优化改进提供理论支撑.     

On the sudden disappearance of Egeria densa from a Ramsar wetland site of Southern Chile: A climatic event trigger model

Contemporary shallow lakes theory proposes that these ecosystems may experience abrupt regime shifts due to small changes in controlling variables or triggers. So far, these triggers have been related mostly to nutrients as the immediate driver. During May 2004 the río Cruces wetland, a Ramsar site located in Southern Chile, underwent a major regime shift, from a clear water state, vastly dominated by the invasive macrophyte Egeria densa, to a turbid water state. In this article we show, through the analysis of long-term meteorological data that late fall 2004 was anomalous due to the presence of a high-pressure cell that persisted most of the month of May over Southern Chile. This climatic event caused an almost complete absence of precipitations and lower temperatures during this period, including several freezing nights. Eco-physiological experiments showed that 6 h exposure to desiccation kill the macrophyte. We developed a simple-biology dynamic model, under Stella Research 9.1, to show that the climatic anomaly of May 2004, plus the increased sedimentation of the wetland's floodplains, and the associated response of E. densa, explains its sudden disappearance from río Cruces wetland.     

尿中1-羟基芘的同步荧光测定法

本文报告1-羟基芘的荧光光谱在碱性溶液中的红移现象,研究了在1mol/l NaOH溶液中的同步荧光光谱,得出最适△λ为35nm.以此为基础建立了尿中1-羟基芘的同步荧光测定法,回收率80%,精密度8.0%,检测下限0.05ng/ml.     

Pigeon homing: the effect of a clock-shift is often smaller than predicted

This analysis is based on 103 releases with 6-h clock-shifted pigeons of various ages and experiences. Resetting the internal clock normally leads to a significant change in initial orientation; however, in half of the cases, the induced deflections are significantly smaller than predicted by the sun compass hypothesis. The relative size of the deflections decreases with increasing age and experience (Fig. 3). Only young pigeons with limited experience respond as expected, while old birds show deflections which are, on the average, only slightly more than half of the predicted size, except at extremely familiar sites (Table 2). There is no difference between fast and slow shifts (Fig. 4). It is not possible to clearly specify under what circumstances smaller deflections occur; previous clock-shifts (Fig. 5), familiarity with the release site (Table 4) and duration of the shifting procedure (Table 5) do not seem to be the reasons. Clock-shifting also tends to decrease the vector lengths and has a marked effect on homing performance (Table 7). Nevertheless, considerable numbers of clock-shifted birds return on the day of release before their internal clock has begun to be reset back to normal. The general role of the sun compass in bird orientation is considered and theoretical implications of our findings are discussed in view of the map and compass-model and the possibility that an alternative, non-time-compensating compass is used in parallel with the sun compass.