Do changes in risk-taking affect habitat shifts of sticklebacks?

The distribution of individuals is often the outcome of conflicting demands, such as between predator avoidance and reproduction. A factor that has seldom been considered in studies on habitat choice is time-dependent changes in risk-taking. We investigated the distribution of threespine sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, over two breeding seasons and found it to change with time towards shallower areas with a more open habitat structure. Shallow and structurally less complex habitats were probably favorable due to a higher reproductive rate, but costly due to an increased risk of predation. Contrary to expectation, changing predation pressure was not a predictor of the shift in habitat use and, thus, not the proximate cue. Instead date was the main predictor. This suggests that increased risk-taking in relation to predation contributed to the habitat shift. The possibility was supported by a laboratory experiment that showed sticklebacks to take larger risks and prefer more predator-exposed areas at the end of the season than at the start of the season. These results demonstrate that temporal changes in risk-taking occur and can influence habitat choice, which points to the importance of considering risk-taking, in addition to predation pressure, when studying the effect of predators on distribution.Communicated by J. Krause     

International externalities, strategic interaction, and domestic politics

Domestic politics can sometimes play an influential role when externalities have strategic and international implications. If voters delegate the choice to policymakers and if individual countries independently determine their environmental policy using a consumption tax on the emissions generating good, the result could be an outcome that is inferior to the one preferred by the median voter in the absence of delegation. On the other hand, if the international externality is unilateral in nature, rather than reciprocal, we find that delegation is largely irrelevant, since voters’ choice of policymaker is no longer strategic in character. Similarly, if voters anticipate policymakers successfully coordinating their policies at a later stage, there also will be no difference between the policymakers’ and the median voters’ aggregate weighting of environmental emissions.     

A Minimal Model of Adiabatic Isotherms Surfacing in Very Shallow Waters

Based on a phenomenology that is rather frequent in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea), we analytically model the short time evolution of the temperature field inside a shallow layer of coastal water induced by a sudden offshore wind. In particular, we reproduce in a very simple way the unsteady surfacing of the isotherms forced by the marine current circulating in a vertical plane perpendicular to the coastline. The model is in agreement with the observations of a significant event recorded on 25 June, 2002 in the Gulf of Trieste.     

Random binary matrices in biogeographical ecology—Instituting a good neighbor policy

Binary matrices originating from presence/absence data on species (rows) distributed over sites (columns) have been a subject of much controversy in ecological biogeography. Under the null hypothesis that every matrix is equally likely, the distributions of some test statistics measuring co-occurrences between species are sought, conditional on the row and column totals being fixed at the values observed for some particular matrix. Many ad hoc methods have been proposed in the literature, but at least some of them do not provide uniform random samples of matrices. In particular, some swap algorithms have not accounted for the number of neighbors each matrix has in the universe of matrices with a set of fixed row and column sums. We provide a Monte-Carlo method using random walks on graphs that gives correct estimates for the distributions of statistics. We exemplify its use with one statistic.     

The curve of ion exchange ratio(%)-pH of the interaction between suspended particles with Cd(II) in the Yellow River

The curve of ion exchange ratio(%)-pH of the interactionbetween suspended particles with Cd(II) in the Yellow River wasstudied. The effects of lysine on this curve have been alsoinvestigated. The results showed that (1) Cadmium in Cd(OH)+ formin the suspended particles exchanges with the cations.The exchangeratio of Cd2+ is nearly at its greatest value in the range of pH(8.0-8.5) in natural aquatic system; (2) Ion exchange ratiodecreases as the concentration of Cd2+ raises from 8.9×10-6 mol/L to 2x8.9 x 10-6mol/L; (3) At the lysine concentration of 6.8x10-6 mol/L, it can promote the ion exchange ratio; (4) Adsorption of thesuspended particles to cadmium is weaker in seawater and Jin ShaRiver than in the Yellow River.     

土地利用结构与空间格局对袁河水质的影响

于2018年7月和2019年1月在袁河干流及支流38个采样点采集水样,测定营养盐离子及重金属等14项水质指标.同时,采用Bioenv分析、Mantle检验与方差分解等方法,揭示土地利用结构与空间格局在子流域和缓冲区对水质变化的影响机制,并基于层次分割理论探讨不同土地利用类型的空间格局特征对水质的影响.结果表明：①袁河流域重金属污染不显著,氮、磷营养盐是水体主要污染物,水质变化具有河段差异,上游污染物浓度低于中、下游.②空间格局在在近距离缓冲区（100 m、300 m）对水质变化的解释率最高（63%）,土地利用结构在远距离缓冲区（3000 m）和子流域尺度对水质变化的解释率最高（33%）,二者交互作用在过渡带（500 m、1000 m）对水质变化的解释率最高（56%）.③在近距离缓冲区和过渡带,单一土地利用类型的空间格局对水质变化的解释能力依次为：林地 > 农田 > 建设用地;在远距离缓冲区为：农田≈林地>建设用地;在子流域依次为：农田 > 林地 > 建设用地.其中,林地的连通性特征（ENN_MN指数）、农田的边缘密度特征（ED指数）和建设用地的形状特征（LPI、LSI指数）是影响水质变化的关键特征,占各自空间格局解释率的37.8%、31.2%、53.8%.以上结果表明,土地利用结构与空间格局是驱动袁河水质变化的重要因素,加强1000 m缓冲区尺度土地利用的管理对保护流域水质具有重要意义.     

喀斯特流域水化学特征及水-岩作用分析——以后寨河流域为例

本文选取后寨流域作为研究对象,基于对水体中主要离子的主成分分析和离子比值分析,研究丰枯期水化学特征及水-岩作用程度。研究表明,水体中各离子的主成分荷载值和站点得分能够辨识流域内主要水化学成分及水-岩(T_2g~2、T_2g~3)作用特征,丰水期主成分反映碳酸盐岩可溶性和水动力条件组合的影响,枯水期主成分反映蒸发岩和水动力条件组合的影响。水流作用强的石灰岩地区,管道发育,水流变化迅速,水体中离子浓度低。随着白云岩含量增加或水流作用减弱,水体中离子含量增大。枯水期从上游至中下游水流作用减弱,蒸发作用增强。     

一种系统化的行为形成因子分类方法

为了准确表述能够诱发人为差错的情景环境,对人因可靠性分析(HRA)中的行为形成因子(PSF)进行归纳整理,构建一种新的系统化的PSF分类方法。对现有人因可靠性文献中的PSF进行分析,明确PSF的定义及其内涵。通过分析人机交互过程,指出PSF应该包含:操作者,机器,任务,组织,环境和辅助系统等6个方面,分别从上述6个方面对PSF进行细致分解,最终构建包括6个方面38个元素的PSF分类方法。     

三维原子场全息作用矢量用于芳香类化合物的三维QSAR研究

采用新型的的三维原子场全息作用矢量(3D-HoVAIF)研究了200种芳香化合物的化学结构与其生物毒性的定量构效关系(QSAR).首先对芳香化合物进行了结构参数化表达,然后采用逐步回归(SMR)对变量进行筛选,建立了三维定量构效关系模型.其87个无氢键分子的模型和113个有氢键分子的模型的复相关系数和标准偏差分别为R2=0.801,SD=0.473和R2=0.929,SD=0.318.模型具有良好的稳定性和预测能力,证明了该三维原子场全息作用矢量在分子结构表征和生物毒性预测上的适用性.     

Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Fishing mortality and primary production (or proxy for) were used to drive the dynamics of fish assemblages in 9 trophodynamic models of contrasting marine ecosystems. Historical trends in abundance were reconstructed by fitting model predictions to observations from stock assessments and fisheries independent survey data. The model fitting exercise derives values for otherwise unknown parameters that specify the relative strength of trophic interactions and, in some instances, a time series anomaly for changes in primary production. We measured how much better or worse were model predictions when bottom-up forcing by primary production were added to top-down forcing by fishing. Searching for cross system patterns, the relative contribution of fishing and changes in primary production, mediated through trophic interactions, are evaluated for the ecosystems as a whole and for selected similar species in different ecosystems. The analysis provides a simple qualitative way to explain which forcing factors have most influence on modeled dynamics. Both fishing and primary production forcing were required to obtain the best model fits to data. Fishing effects more strongly influenced 6 of 9 of the ecosystems, but primary production was more often found to be the main factor influencing the selected pelagic and demersal fish stock trends. Examination of sensitivity to ecological and model parameters suggests that the results are the product of complex food-web interactions rather than simple deterministic responses of the models.