Constraints to Species’ Elevational Range Shifts as Climate Changes

Abstract: Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land‐cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land‐cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species’ range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species’ movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains.     

Fighting against water crisis in China—A glimpse of water regime shift at county level

Three decades of economy growth and urbanization has brought China into the rim of water crisis. Transition to sustainability has gained consensus and put into practice at all administrative levels. However, due to locking mechanisms such as sunken investments, vested interests, and economic structure, such transition would not prove to be easy. Here we adopt the Multi-Level Perspective framework to analyze a county level water regime shift in Yiwu of Zhejiang province, which is representative for its economic success and severity of water problem in China. The transition is described as the interactions between water regime subsystems including society, economy, administration, infrastructure, and natural water cycling process, as well as the influence from the landscape level such as politics. Figures show that the water system is making a turnaround to the better side, while the government plays a key role in pushing and managing the transition. This study allows us to have a glimpse of the whole water regime transition currently happening in China, as well as being used for reference in other parts of the developing world, for the promoting of sustainable water resource management.     

Optimal management with potential regime shifts

We analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management. We use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics, and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift. Prior work in economics has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions on whether the potential for regime shift will increase or decrease intensity of resource use and level of resource stock. We show that all other cases yield unambiguous results. In particular, with endogenous probability of regime shift that affects system dynamics the potential for regime shift causes optimal management to become precautionary in the sense of maintaining higher resource stock levels.     

Complementarity,impatience, and the resilience of natural-resource-dependent economies

We study how society's preferences affect the resilience of economies that depend on more than one type of natural resource. In particular, we analyze whether the degree of complementarity of natural resources in consumer preferences may give rise to multiple steady states and path dependence even when resources are managed optimally. We find that, for a given social discount rate, society tends to be less willing to buffer exogenous shocks if resource good are complements in consumption than if they are substitutes. The stronger the complementarity between the various types of natural resources, the less resilient the economy is, and even more so the higher is the social discount rate.     

Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience

The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species' morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.     

Shifting regime shifted policy—interplay of interests in sustainability discourses of forest land use

This study investigates the influence of policy interests on resource sustainability. Information on ‘colonial interest’ of the British regime and the ‘commercial interest’ of the post-colonial regimes on forest land use of Bangladesh have been drawn on to show the interplay of interests on sustainability impacts. The findings show that both colonial and commercial interests have caused intensification of forest land use for production of economic crops like teak (Tectona grandis) and cash crops like tea (Camellia sinensis), cotton (Gossypium herbaceum and G. arboreum) and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum). The ‘colonial interest’ has also initiated the dispute of ownership, rights and tenure of forest land and resources. The post-colonial regimes have utilized colonial legacy as the privilege for implementing ‘commercial interests’. In both the cases traditional interests of people were disregarded. As a result, peoples’ participation in forestry was discouraged and the sustainability of forest land use was impeded.     

Modeling approach to regime shifts of primary production in shallow coastal ecosystems

Pristine coastal shallow systems are usually dominated by extensive meadows of seagrass species, which are assumed to take advantage of nutrient supply from sediment. An increasing nutrient input is thought to favour phytoplankton, epiphytic microalgae, as well as opportunistic ephemeral macroalgae that coexist with seagrasses. The primary cause of shifts and succession in the macrophyte community is the increase of nutrient load to water; however, temperature plays also an important role. A competition model between rooted seagrass (Zostera marina), macroalgae (Ulva sp.), and phytoplankton has been developed to analyse the succession of primary producer communities in these systems. Successions of dominance states, with different resilience characteristics, are found when modifying the input of nutrients and the seasonal temperature and light intensity forcing.     

加拿大的船舶油污损害赔偿机制及运行经验

加拿大是世界上最早通过立法建立船舶溢油赔偿机制的国家。现在加拿大采用国际机制和国内机制相结合的办法较好地解决了油轮和非油轮的油污损害赔偿问题，本言语概括总结了该机制的特点和经验。     

Effect of pyrene on denitrification activity and abundance and composition of denitrifying community in an agricultural soil

Toxicity of pyrene on the denitrifiers was studied by spiking an agricultural soil with pyrene to a series of concentrations (0-500 mg kg⁻¹) followed by dose-response and dynamic incubation experiments. Results showed a positive correlation between potential denitrification activity and copy numbers of denitrifying functional genes (nirK, nirS and nosZ), and were both negatively correlated with pyrene concentrations. Based on the comparison of EC₅₀ values, denitrifiers harboring nirK, nirS or nosZ gene were more sensitive than denitrification activity, and denitrifiers harboring nirS gene were more sensitive than that harboring nirK or nosZ genes. Seven days after spiking with EC₅₀ concentration of pyrene, denitrifiers diversity decreased and community composition changed in comparison with the control. Phylogenetic analyses of three genes showed that the addition of pyrene increased the proportion of Bradyrhizobiaceae, Rhodospirillales, Burkholderiales and Pseudomonadales. Some species belonging to these groups were reported to be able to degrade PAHs.     

Conserving and managing the subnivium

In regions where snowfall historically has been a defining seasonal characteristic of the landscape, warming winters have reduced the depth, duration, and extent of snowpack. However, most management and conservation has focused on how aboveground wildlife will be affected by altered snow conditions, even though the majority of species that persist through the winter do so under the snowpack in a thermally stable refugium: the subnivium. Shortened winters, forest management practices, and winter recreation can alter subnivium conditions by increasing snow compaction and compromising thermal stability at the soil–snow interface. To help slow the loss of the subnivium in the face of rapidly changing winter conditions, we suggest managers adopt regional conservation plans for identifying threatened snow‐covered environments; measure and predict the effects land cover and habitat management has on local subnivium conditions; and control the timing and distribution of activities that disturb and compact snow cover (e.g., silvicultural practices, snow recreation, and road and trail maintenance). As a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model of subnivium presence in a working landscape of the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin. We identified landscapes where winter recreation and management practices could threaten potentially important areas for subnivium persistence. Similar modeling approaches could inform management decisions related to subnivium conservation. Current climate projections predict that snow seasons will change rapidly in many regions, and as result, we advocate for the immediate recognition, conservation, and management of the subnivium and its dependent species.