Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Sample intake position and loading rates from nonpoint source pollution

Paired water samples were simultaneously activated from two different vertical positions within the approach section of a flow-control structure to determine the effect of sample intake position on nonpoint runoff parameter concentrations and subsequent event loads. Suspended solids (SS), total phosphorus (TP) and organic plus exchangeable nitrogen [(Or+Ex)-N] were consistently higher throughout each runoff event when sampled from the floor of the approach section as opposed to those samples taken at midstage. Dissolved molybdate reactive phosphorus (DMRP) and ammonium (NH₄-N) concentrations did not appear to be significantly affected by the vertical difference in intake position. However, the nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen [(NO₃+NO₂)-N] concentrations were much higher when sampled from the midstage position.Although the concentration differences between the two methods were not appreciable, when evaluated in terms of event loads, discrepancies were evident for all parameters. Midstage sampling produced event loads for SS, TP, (Or + Ex)–N, DMRP, NH₄-N, and (NO₃+NO₂)-N that were 44,39,35,80,71, and 181%, respectively, of floor sampling loads. Differences in loads between the two methods are attributed to the midstage position, sampling less of the bed load. The correct position will depend on the objective; however, such differences should be recognized during the design phase of the monitoring program.This work was supported by the Soil Science Department, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region V., Chicago, Illinois (Grant No. G005139-01).     

PARTIAL AREA HYDROLOGY AND ITS APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: According to a concept known as partial area hydrology, watershed areas are separated into hydrologically active and passive subareas. The literature relating to the development of the partial area concept is reviewed briefly and the relationship of partial area hydrology to geology, soils, and micrometeorology is illustrated. The potential application of partial area hydrology is discussed with respect to present hydrologic techniques, future hydrologic models, urban hydrology, water quality, and water management. Suggestions for identifying and delineating the contributing areas are discussed.     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

前车突然切入时驾驶人应激生理特性研究

为研究前车突然切入对驾驶人生理负荷的影响,利用MP150生理监测系统对22名被试进行虚拟驾驶试验。采集记录前车突然切入时被试的生理参数。研究驾驶人心率增长率和心率变异性(HRV)指标与车速、应激距离之间的关系。结果表明:自车速度为100 km/h时,随着前车切入距离从55.6 m减小到27.8 m,被试的平均心率增长率从16.21%增大到23.27%,HRV参数低频(LF)值也呈现下降趋势。前车切入距离一定,随着自车车速从60 km/h增加到120 km/h,被试的平均心率增长率存在显著性差异,平均从13.05%上升到21.85%。差异性检验结果表明,前车切入距离和自车速度发生变化时驾驶人的生理负荷变化趋势一致,但自车速度因素对驾驶人生理负荷的影响程度高于切入距离因素。     

Influence of Riparian Seepage Zones on Nitrate Variability in Two Agricultural Headwater Streams

Riparian seeps have been recognized for their contributions to stream flow in headwater catchments, but there is limited data on how seeps affect stream water quality. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations in FD36 and RS, two agricultural catchments in Pennsylvania. Stream samples were collected at 10‐m intervals over reaches of 550 (FD36) and 490 m (RS) on 21 occasions between April 2009 and January 2012. Semi‐variogram analysis was used to quantify longitudinal patterns in stream NO₃‐N concentration. Seep water was collected at 14 sites in FD36 and 7 in RS, but the number of flowing seeps depended on antecedent conditions. Seep NO₃‐N concentrations were variable (0.1‐29.5 mg/l) and were often greater downslope of cropped fields compared to other land uses. During base flow, longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations increased as the number of flowing seeps increased. The influence of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations was less during storm flow compared to the variability of base flow NO₃‐N concentrations. However, 24 h after a storm in FD36, an increase in the number of flowing seeps and decreasing streamflow resulted in the greatest longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations recorded. Results indicate seeps are important areas of NO₃‐N delivery to streams where targeted adoption of mitigation measures may substantially improve stream water quality.     

北京市道路积雪污染及特性研究

通过2009~2012年对北京市区道路旁积雪的取样,分析了积雪中污染物的浓度和特性,并对国内外普遍关注的融雪剂污染问题及其控制进行了初步分析。得出道路积雪中+NH 4-N、TN、TP、COD、SS、Cd等污染物主要来自交通活动,氯化物主要来自氯盐融雪剂;与《地表水环境质量标准》相比,道路积雪中主要污染物为NH+4-N、TN、COD、BOD和氯化物,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd等重金属的污染水平不高,可达到Ⅴ类水体标准;相同地点近似降水量条件下,积雪中TP、COD、SS的平均浓度高于降雨径流;北京市交通主干道及人行道上喷撒氯盐融雪剂的量高于国外道路,控制其污染主要通过源头减少使用量、使用替代融雪剂、严格融雪剂标准和使用方法、严肃责任追究、加强宣传教育等措施。     

“城郊乡”梯度下土壤Cu、Zn、Pb含量的空间变异特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响,选择能反映上海城郊乡梯度差异的中心城区、城郊结合部和远郊,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:城市土壤Pb、Cu、Zn的变异系数范围为0.24~0.62,均属中等变异强度。徐汇区土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合正态分布,闵行区土壤Cu、Pb和Zn符合对数正态分布,奉贤区土壤Zn呈正态分布,土壤Cu、Pb符合对数正态分布。由中心城区到远郊,城市土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的各项统计特征值和变异系数均有较大差异,存在明显的空间分布差异。半方差函数分析结果表明,徐汇区作为中心城区,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合球状模型,土壤Cu、Zn具有强烈的空间相关性,土壤Pb具有明显的空间自相关。奉贤区以农业用地为主,土壤Pb符合线性模型,土壤Cu符合高斯模型,土壤Zn符合指数模型,具有强烈的空间相关性。闵行区地处城郊结合部,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的半方差拟合模型均为线性模型,表现为纯块金形式,以随机变异为主,空间相关性弱。采用Kriging最优内插法进行无偏估值,绘制了表层土壤重金属含量的空间分布图,中心城区、城郊结合部、郊区土壤重金属的空间分布受城市化、工业化、城市交通等因素的影响,均表现出不同的空间分布规律。     

川中丘陵县域土壤pH空间变异及影响因素分析——以四川仁寿县为例

利用2012年在仁寿县采集的555个表层土样(0~20cm),应用地统计学方法分析了该县域尺度表层土壤pH值的空间变异特征;并采用方差分析和回归分析量化主要影响因素对土壤pH值空间变异的影响程度。结果表明:研究区土壤pH值在4.02~8.14之间,平均为6.80,总体上以中性和碱性土壤为主;变异系数为14.48%,属中等程度的空间变异性。地统计分析表明,研究区土壤pH值变异函数的最佳理论模型为球状模型,具有中等程度的空间自相关性,且空间自相关范围较大。方差分析和回归分析表明,土壤类型、成土母质和土地利用方式是显著影响土壤pH值的主要因素。其中,成土母质和土地利用方式分别能独立解释76.2%和4.8%的土壤pH值空间变异。土壤类型的解释能力与分类级别有关,土类、亚类和土属可分别独立解释41.3%、57.3%和83.7%的土壤pH值空间变异,因而能反映成土过程和母质特性的土属是研究区土壤pH值空间变异的主控因素。研究结果可为川中丘陵县域尺度土壤pH空间变异分析及区域生态环境管理与建设提供有益参考。     

Efficacy of Vegetated Buffers in Preventing Transport of Fecal Coliform Bacteria from Pasturelands

An experimental study was conducted in Tillamook, Oregon, USA, to quantify the effectiveness of edge-of-field vegetated buffers for reducing transport of fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) from agricultural fields amended with dairy cow manure. Installation of vegetated buffers on loamy soils dramatically reduced the bacterial contamination of runoff water from manure-treated pasturelands, but the size of the vegetated buffer was not an important determinant of bacterial removal efficiency. Only 10% of the runoff samples collected from treatment cells having vegetated buffers exhibited FCB concentrations >200 colony forming units (cfu)/100 mL (a common water quality standard value), and the median concentration for all cells containing vegetated buffers was only 6 cfu/100 mL. The presence of a vegetated buffer of any size, from 1 to 25 m, generally reduced the median FCB concentration in runoff by more than 99%. Results for FCB load calculations were similar. Our results suggest that where substantial FCB contamination of runoff occurs from manure-treated pasturelands, it might be disproportionately associated with specific field or management conditions, such as the presence of soils that exhibit low water infiltration and generate larger volumes of runoff or the absence of a vegetated buffer. Buffer size regulations that do not consider such differences might not be efficient or effective in reducing bacterial contamination of runoff.