Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

基于观测数据空间化的北京市PM_(2.5)时空分异

PM2.5在地球表面上的变化是连续的,但由于地面海拔起伏和站点分布的相对稀疏,直接内插法很难顾及这种情况。文章运用反距离权重(IDW)、Kriging、经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)、多元回归+残差内插的综合空间化手段,对北京市2015年1月的PM2.5数据进行分析。结果表明:利用多元回归+残差内插方法空间化更优,且PM2.5存在显著的正局部空间自相关,中度以上污染主要分布在北京市东南部和房山区。时间上,PM2.5质量浓度逐时均值呈"W"型。3 h尺度上,PM2.5质量浓度与相对湿度和露点温度正相关,与能见度、大气压和风速负相关,与温度不相关。     

变温过程试验箱温度特性分析

目的研究环境试验箱变温过程中的温度分布特性。方法对具有代表特性的温度试验箱进行温场特性测定及分析,深入了解变温过程中试验箱的温场分布和影响温度特性的各个因素。结果变温过程中不同位置的温度重合性差,温变率越高,变温过程的非线性越明显。结论在变温过程中,试验箱内部测点和控制温度相比有一定的差异性,使得处于试验箱中的受试产品的不同部位,承受温度梯度应力。对于产品外表面、安装在外表面的零部件或靠近外表面的内部零部件,可能产生物理损坏或性能下降。故在使用中应充分注意这种温场特性对受试产品的影响。     

江津市紫色土中N、P养分元素区域空间变异性研究

利用地统计学,结合GIS研究紫色土土壤表层(0～20cm)的全氮、碱解氮、全磷和速效磷4种养分含量的空间分布特征结果表明,全氮和速效氮为正态分布,全磷和速效磷为对数正态分布;通过半方差函数分析,发现全氮存在纯块金效应,块金值为0.2,其它养分在一定间距内(50m)存在空间相关性,且为中等强度的空间自相关性(块金值与基台值之比在25%～75%之间);用普通克立格法和对数正态克立格法进行最优内插,做各种养分含量的分布图.结合GIS可充分了解土壤中N、P养分的空间变异性规律,并可进一步应用于精确施肥和农业非点源污染预测和控制.     

天津市PM2.5碳组分空间差异性及来源解析

2021年在天津市不同功能区共设置4个点位同步采集细颗粒物（PM_2.5）样品,测定了其中8种碳质亚组分的含量.结果表明,采样期间各点位ρ[有机碳（OC）]为3.7~4.4 μg·m^-3,ρ[元素碳（EC）]为1.6~1.7 μg·m^-3,OC浓度在中心城区最高,EC浓度差别较小.采用最小比值法对二次有机碳（SOC）进行估算,结果表明环城区二次污染较为突出,SOC占OC的比例达48.8%.各功能区碳质亚组分间的相关性强弱呈现出外围区>中心城区>环城区的特征,均表现出EC₁与OC₂和EC₁与OC₄相关性最强.正定矩阵因子（PMF）来源解析结果显示,道路扬尘源（9.7%~23.5%）、燃煤源（10.2%~13.3%）、柴油车尾气（12.6%~20.2%）和汽油车尾气（18.9%~38.8%）是天津市PM_2.5中碳组分的主要来源.不同功能区碳组分污染源存在差异,中心城区和外围区主要受汽油车尾气影响;环城区受二次污染和柴油车尾气的影响更为突出.     

祁连山区亚高山灌丛土壤含水量的空间分布与月份变化规律

为了探究祁连山区不同灌丛类型的土壤水分时空变异规律,论文以祁连山排露沟小流域的箭叶锦鸡儿（Caragana jubata）、吉拉柳（Salix gilashanica）、金露梅（Potentilla fruticosa）、鲜黄小檗（Berberis diaphana）、甘青锦鸡儿（Caragana tangutica）5种灌丛为对象,建立固定样地,进行了一个生长季的分层（0~10、10~20、20~30、30~40、40~60 cm）土壤含水量监测。结果表明：1）在各灌丛类型样地之间,土壤含水量差异很大,由大到小依次为：箭叶锦鸡儿>吉拉柳>金露梅>鲜黄小檗>甘青锦鸡儿。2）在小流域内空间尺度上,地形（海拔、坡向）、气象（降水、温度）、植被、土壤等作为主要因素共同影响着土壤含水量的差异,导致土壤含水量的空间分布具有随海拔（降水）升高而增大、随地形遮荫作用增强而增大（阴坡高于阳坡）的变化规律。3）不同灌丛类型样地土壤含水量在生长季内各月的变异程度均为弱变异或中等变异,相同土层含水量变异系数大小顺序基本为：鲜黄小檗>箭叶锦鸡儿>吉拉柳>金露梅>甘青锦鸡儿。     

Treatment,residual chlorine and season as factors affecting variability of trihalomethanes in small drinking water systems

Seasonal variability in source water can lead to challenges for drinking water providers related to operational optimization and process control in treatment facilities. The objective of this study is to investigate seasonal variability of water quality in municipal small water systems (<3000 residents) supplied by surface waters. Residual chlorine and trihalomethanes (THM) were measured over seven years (2003–2009). Comparisons are made within each system over time, as well as between systems according to the type of their treatment technologies. THM concentrations are generally higher in the summer and autumn. The seasonal variability was generally more pronounced in systems using chlorination plus additional treatment. Chloroform, total THM (TTHM) and residual chlorine concentrations were generally lower in systems using chlorination plus additional treatment. Conversely, brominated THM concentrations were higher in systems using additional treatment. Residual chlorine was highest in the winter and lowest in the spring and summer. Seasonal variations were most pronounced for residual chlorine in systems with additional treatment. There was generally poor correlation between THM concentrations and concentrations of residual chlorine. Further study with these data will be beneficial in finding determinants and indicators for both quantity and variability of disinfection byproducts and other water quality parameters.     

黄土丘陵区不同地貌单元土壤有机碳空间变异的尺度效应

运用地统计学和GIS相结合的方法,研究了黄土丘陵区县域不同地貌单元土壤有机碳空间变异的尺度效应,尺度划分为县域、县域上三种不同的地貌单元以及与地貌单元相对应的乡镇尺度,结果表明：①各个尺度下有机碳含量均偏低,完整地貌单元尺度与乡镇尺度有机碳均值与变异系数大小顺序不同;②高山区随着尺度的变化,自然因素对变异的影响程度没有显著变化,但低山丘陵区与丘陵沟壑区自然因素的影响程度减小,插值图表现出较小的研究面积有机碳含量信息更丰富;③县域尺度上海拔与土壤类型是导致变异的主控因素,在丘陵沟壑区,所研究的自然因素（海拔、土壤类型、土壤侵蚀程度、田面坡度、坡向）对其影响都不显著;在低山丘陵区,地貌单元上主控因子是海拔与土壤类型,而乡镇尺度上转化为田面坡度;在高山区,地貌单元上主控因子是土壤类型,但乡镇尺度上其主要影响因素变为土壤侵蚀程度。     

长江中下游洪水灾害成因及洪水特征模拟分析

长江中下游地区洪水灾害的发生是自然地理条件及人类活动共同作用的结果。流域水系构造和地理特征决定了其洪水多发性,气候变化和土地利用/地表覆盖变化导致该地区水循环过程发生较大改变,而大量水库、堤防的建设以及城市化的发展使得洪水过程发生显著变化,因此在各种因素的综合作用下,长江中下游地区近年来洪水灾害频繁发生。综述了气候变化对长江中下游降水的影响,探讨了长江中下游水系特征与洪水灾害的关系,分析了人类活动对洪水灾害的影响规律,在此基础上,开展了气候和下垫面特征变化条件下的暴雨洪水模拟研究,以长江下游太湖东苕溪流域的南苕溪为研究区,进行了流域降雨径流过程的动态模拟验证和特征分析,并取得了较满意的成果,从而为长江中下游地区防洪减灾研究打下了基础。     

Historical evidence of climatic variability and changes,and its effect on high-altitude regions: insights from Rara and Langtang,Nepal

ABSTRACT

Climatic variability and its effects have been experienced in the high-altitude regions of Nepal for some considerable time. Most of the studies on local people’s perception available so far in Nepal on climate include with respect to weather changes, and almost none have been verified with satellite imagery. This study thus attempts to combine meteorological and satellite imagery for comparing local people’s perception so that a more robust validation can be established. Both qualitative (transect walk, key informant interview, focus group discussion and institutional visit) and quantitative (meteorological and satellite image) data and techniques were employed. Local people from Rara and Langtang in Nepal shared their observations and perceptions on the changing climate for the last three decades and the effects on them and their local microclimate. Apart from temperature, rainfall and snowfall anomalies, locals observed changes in the water sources and increasing drought along with alteration in the phenology of tree and agricultural crops as well as vegetation range migration. Satellite image analysis also confirms a change in snow cover as notified by the local people. This study shows that local people’s knowledge could be considered as a complement to the observed scientific evidences of climate change science and their perceptions can be used reliably where scientific data are lacking. Finally, perceived climatic risks, current gaps and future opportunities are discussed and some recommendations are suggested.