东北旅游区探险旅游的开发构想

文章阐述了探险旅游及探险旅游资源的涵义,并说明了其在东北旅游区的调查评价方法,从东北旅游区现有的旅游资源中筛选出各个次级区域中有代表性的适于开展探险旅游的资源客体.在客观分析东北旅游区内各次级区域或资源单体的优势和分析客源市场并准确定位的基础上,提出了各次级区域或资源单体的开发方式以及其应主推的探险旅游产品.引用有关公式用于对重点开发的探险旅游区进行相关指标的定量计算.结合东北旅游区现有的发展状况,相应提出了相关行业的发展策略.     

Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties

In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash–Cournot approach. An initial resource base for oil is given in the non-OPEC region. However, the resource base changes over time due to depletion, exploration, and discovery. When studying the effects of different climate treaties on oil exploration, two contrasting incentives apply. If an international carbon tax is introduced, the producer price of oil will drop compared to the reference case. This gives an incentive to reduce oil production and exploration. However, the oil price may increase less rapidly over time, which gives an incentive to expedite production and exploration. In fact, in the case of a rising carbon tax we find the last incentive to be the strongest, which means that an international climate treaty may increase oil exploration in non-OPEC countries for the coming decades and reduce OPEC's market share.     

Site fidelity and territorial movements of males in a rapidly declining population of yellow-headed blackbirds

We tested several hypotheses to explain low between-year territory fidelity in a breeding population of yellow-headed blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus). During a 5-year study the population of territorial males declined by two-thirds and some of the marshes that supported territories significantly deteriorated. Individual males held territories and bred for an average of 1.9 years. Of males that bred for at least 2 years, 30% skipped owning a territory in the study area during at least 1 year of their breeding lifetimes. Our information suggests that they may have bred outside of the area in those years. Of males with territories in two or more breeding seasons, 60% changed breeding marshes at least once. Males changed territories during 42.9% of between-year opportunities to do so. We found no support for the hypotheses that male yellow-headed blackbirds: (1) are more likely to move when territory density is low; (2) are likely to abandon territories that are deteriorating; or (3) change territories to improve their reproductive success. We suggest three non-mutually exclusive explanations for the yellow-headed blackbird's weak site fidelity: (1) it is a response to habitat deterioration and to other factors that may be causing the population's decline; (2) the males, being migratory, make fresh settlement decisions each year after they arrive on the breeding grounds in the general vicinity of their previous year's breeding; (3) yellow-headed blackbirds may have evolved in, and be adapted to, highly unstable habitats, moving frequently in response to changes in local breeding site conditions. Correspondence to: L.D. Beletsky     

安徽省庐枞地区成矿规律及找矿方向

庐枞地区是长江中下游成矿带的一个重要矿集区,已探明的有罗河、龙桥、大鲍庄大型铁矿,大鲍庄、何家小岭大型硫铁矿,沙溪、井边中型铜矿,岳山中型铅锌银矿等。本文根据区内不同类型矿床的成矿地质条件及矿床的空间分布特征,总结庐枞地区区域成矿规律。结合以往地质资料和近年来地质找矿成果的综合分析,提出庐枞地区具有较大远景的找矿靶区有:(1)沙溪铜(金)找矿靶区;(2)清水塘—岳山铁、铅锌找矿靶区;(3)井边—巴家滩铜矿找矿靶区。     

Site search and multicriteria evaluation

Geographic information systems (GIS) are potentially powerful collections of tools which planners can use in the manipulation and analysis of spatial information. One traditional area of interest in this context is site search. Here, the functionality of GIS is, however, limited to certain deterministic analyses which serve merely as a computerised automation of the manual sieve mapping approach. The integration of multicriteria evaluation (MCE) techniques with GIS, is forwarded as a means of providing the user with the means to evaluate sites identified by sieve mapping techniques on the basis of multiple and conflicting criteria and objectives. An example application based on the search for suitable radioactive waste disposal sites in Britain using the Arc/Info GIS is included. The potential use of a combined GIS/MCE approach in the development of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) is considered.     

A new method for site suitability analysis: The analytic hierarchy process

A critical shortcoming of methods that are reliant upon the judgment of experts to determine site suitability is noted. The article introduces a new method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with which error in judging the relative importance of factors in site suitability analysis can be both detected and corrected. The proposed approach is illustrated with an example to show how the AHP frames the site evaluation problem and can aid in decision making involving multiple criteria, factor diversity, and conditions of uncertainty. The article concludes by suggesting the potential application of the AHP in public choice decisions involving complex, controversial, and conflictual site selection processes.     

Characterization of flow and transport processes within the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, under current and future climates

This paper presents a large-scale modeling study characterizing fluid flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential repository site for storing high-level radioactive waste. The study has been conducted using a three-dimensional numerical model, which incorporates a wide variety of field data and takes into account the coupled processes of flow and transport in the highly heterogeneous, unsaturated fractured porous rock. The modeling approach is based on a dual-continuum formulation of coupled multiphase fluid and tracer transport through fractured porous rock. Various scenarios of current and future climate conditions and their effects on the unsaturated zone are evaluated to aid in the assessment of the proposed repository's system performance using different conceptual models. These models are calibrated against field-measured data. Model-predicted flow and transport processes under current and future climates are discussed.     

Development and testing of radionuclide transport models for fractured rock: examples from the Nagra/JNC Radionuclide Migration Programme in the Grimsel Test Site, Switzerland

The joint Swiss National Co-operative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra)/Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC) Radionuclide Migration Programme has now been on-going for over a decade in Nagra's Grimsel Test Site (GTS). The main aim of the programme has been the direct testing of radionuclide transport models in as realistic manner as possible. Although it will never be possible to fully test these models due to the large time and distance scales involved, tests of the model assumptions in scaled down but otherwise realistic conditions will contribute to developing confidence in the predictive power of the models. In this paper, the Nagra/JNC approach is highlighted with examples from a large programme of field, laboratory and natural analogue studies based around the GTS. The successes and failures are discussed as in the general approach to the thorough testing of predictive transport codes which will be used in repository performance assessment (PA). Some of the work is still on-going and this represents the first presentation of a unique set of results and conclusions.     

资源所在地的利益补偿机制初探——以油气田资源开发为例

油气资源作为战略性资源，关系到经济发展、社会稳定、国家安全和全面建设小康社会目标的顺利实现。资源所在地为国家建设输出了大量的能源，本地的经济发展却依然处于落后状况，导致目前资源所在地出现了种种矛盾和冲突。究其原因，主要是缺乏对资源所在地的利益补偿机制所致。以油气田资源开发的利益分配现状为例，指出目前的利益分配中主要存在资源所在地税收分配收益少、开发带来的生态污染补偿缺失、油气田项目征地补偿过低、资源开发没有促进资源所在地的经济发展等问题，从福利经济学、公共政策管理的相关理论提出了构建利益补偿机制的理论依据，并在此基础上提出了收益向资源所在地倾斜、实行生态补偿、创新征地补偿方式和资源就地转化的政策建议。     

关于建设用地分类管理及污染场地分级管理的建议

通过分析污染场地与建设用地的关系,从土地管理的"建设用地"里界定社会和公众关心的环境问题—"污染场地"的管理范畴,提出建设用地分类管理思路。基于我国污染场地分级管理需求分析,借鉴发达国家和地区的污染场地分级管理情况,提出我国闲置污染场地分级管理制度设计设想,国家确定优先管控名录,对优先管控名录内外场地进行中央和地方的事权划分和管理层级确定。