A practical real option methodology for the evaluation of farm-in/out joint venture agreements in mineral exploration

Although the “real option valuation” (ROV) methodology offers extremely valuable insights in optimising investment decisions in the face of uncertainty, its practical acceptance in the mining industry has until recently been slow because of its perceived computational complexity. Recent conceptual advances in the use of binomial lattices and software developments in the areas of decision trees and dynamic programming, have significantly simplified ROV analysis and made it of practical application in day-to-day financial evaluations and decisions involving uncertainty. This paper provides general background on the ROV methodology and an example of how a typical farm-in/out agreement, as a preliminary to the establishment of a joint venture (JV), can be valued as a series of sequential and compound real options. For illustrative and quality assurance purposes, a simple farm-in/out agreement is valued from the point of view of the party acquiring equity in the project (the farm-inee) using two distinct methods, i.e. (a) a binomial lattice and (b) a decision tree in combination with binomial stochastic processes, in both cases neutralising risk using the user-friendly “risk-neutral probability”. The fact that exactly the same ROV is obtained by both methods provides confidence in the modified decision tree approach, which opens up the capacity to value the more complex sequential/compound real options inherent in real-life farm-in/out agreements. The model is then modified to incorporate a number of realistic contractual conditions often encountered in typical exploration and mining farm-in/out deals. The paper demonstrates how the increased complexity of the model can be relatively easily addressed using a decision tree with dynamic programming capability.     

Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty

Acquisition of land rights has become a primary tool used to protect terrestrial biodiversity. Fixed length contracts are often used when trying to secure conservation benefits on private land in agri-environment schemes and payment for environmental services schemes, but the duration of the conservation contracts used in different programmes varies. To date, very little research has been undertaken to determine the situations in which contracts of differing lengths are optimal or when conservation agencies or groups should use a portfolio of different contract lengths rather than relying on a single type. Using stochastic dynamic programming and related heuristic methods, we investigate how the choice between short or long conservation contracts is affected by uncertainty regarding the future availability of sites and their ecological condition. We also examine the benefits offered by using a portfolio of different contract lengths. Conservation agencies must pay private landowners a premium to secure longer agreements and because of this, shorter contracts are advantageous if sites are likely to remain available for conservation in the future. Long contracts are preferred when future site availability becomes more unlikely. In contrast to uncertainty over site availability, uncertainty over future ecological conditions has little effect on contract selection and only markedly influences the choice between short and long contracts when there is heterogeneity across sites in expected conservation outcomes and future availability of sites is also uncertain. Finally, when future site availability is unlikely, the use of a portfolio of short and long contracts would offer greater conservation gains than using either type in isolation, even though this option is not yet one that is commonly found in conservation practice.     

污染场地调查与评估信息系统设计

为了管理和风险评估污染场地,结合调查和评价应用中的管理工作流程,对污染场地数据库的设计方案进行了分析,其中包括数据标准的制定、数据库总体结构设计和数据表设计等;同时具体介绍了调查与评估信息系统的设计方案,包括系统设计目标、总体结构和功能模块设计等内容,为系统的构建进一步提供技术支持.     

废水处理设施验收监测现场的质量控制

分析了废水处理设施验收监测现场存在的问题及原因，提出了验收监测现场的质控措施是正确理解和准确把握企业的生产工况、生产周期、排污周期，加强采样过程中的质量控制，保证处理设施运转正常和建立必要的回访制度。     

石窟文物病害成因分析及其对策研究

本文在概述石窟寺主要病害的基础上，结合典型灾例，从气象气候因素、地震活动、水文特征、环境工程地质条件、石窟寺结构和龛内文物自身的特殊性以及人类社会行为因素等６个方面详细分析了石窟文物病害形成的内部作用因素和外部环境条件，强调了综合减灾的重要性，并提出了相应的减灾对策。本文旨在为石窟寺的科学保护和文物修复工作提供理论基础和实践依据     

Conservation planning for successional landscapes

The systematic conservation planning literature invariably assumes that the biodiversity features being preserved in sites do not change through time. We develop a conservation planning framework for ecosystems where disturbance events and succession drive vegetation dynamics. The framework incorporates three key attributes of disturbance theory: heterogeneity in disturbance rates, spatial correlation between disturbance events and different impacts of disturbance. In our conservation problem we wish to maximise the chance that we represent a certain number of successional types given a cap on the number of sites we can conserve. Correlation between disturbance events dramatically complicates the problem of choosing the optimal suite of sites. However, in our problem we discover that spatial correlation in disturbances affects the optimal reserve network very little. The reason is twofold: (i) through our probabilistic framework we focus on the long-term effectiveness of reserve networks and (ii) in the dynamics considered in our model the state of a site is not only affected by the most recent (correlated) disturbance event but also by the site's long-term stochastic history which blurs the impact of spatial correlation. If successional states are the conservation target rather than individual species then, conserving a site can only contribute to meeting one target. However, given that correlation of disturbance events may be ignored, we show that if the number of candidate reserves is sufficiently large the statistical dependence of different conservation targets may be ignored, too. We conclude that the computational complexity of reserve selection methods for dynamic ecosystems can be much simpler than they first appear.     

香港海沙资源的勘探开发与管理

海沙开采已成为仅次于油气开采的世界第二重要海洋开采业。1980年代以来,香港政府投资1.7×10⁸港元为寻找海岸围垦填料进行了一系列的海沙勘探活动,在1828km²香港水域发现22个地点海沙资源储量7.4×10⁸m³,其中9个地点4.2×10⁸m³储量因覆盖层较厚或污染严重或海区环境特别敏感等原因被暂时搁置。1990～2002年共开采海沙2.7×10⁸m³,为形成2100hm²新土地的多项围垦工程提供了约一半的填料。基于地球物理勘探和钻探资料建立了香港海域第四纪层序和海沙产状地质模型,发现和证实了含气沉积物地震剖面的声波浑浊现象。香港政府对海沙资源进行统一勘探和统一管理,强调海沙开采的环境和生态影响评估,利用废弃的海床挖沙坑回填倾废的非污染海泥和受污染海泥。我国内地海沙勘探管理可以从中取得借鉴。     

The consequences of failure should be considered in siting geologic carbon sequestration projects

Geologic carbon sequestration is the injection of anthropogenic CO₂ into deep geologic formations where the CO₂ is intended to remain indefinitely. If successfully implemented, geologic carbon sequestration will have little or no impact on terrestrial ecosystems aside from the mitigation of climate change. However, failure of a geologic carbon sequestration site, such as large-scale leakage of CO₂ into a potable groundwater aquifer, could cause impacts that would require costly remediation measures. Governments are attempting to develop regulations for permitting geologic carbon sequestration sites to ensure their safety and effectiveness. At present, these regulations focus largely on decreasing the probability of failure. In this paper we propose that regulations for the siting of early geologic carbon sequestration projects should emphasize limiting the consequences of failure because consequences are easier to quantify than failure probability.     

长白山天池火山的研究现状与展望

较详细地介绍了近年来长白山天池火山喷发历史、火山形成机制、火山系统的探测和火山灾害的研究现状，指出了当前研究中存在的一些主要问题。建议今后应加强火山活动历史研究；探测岩浆作用及其动态变化，限定火山失稳条件；研究岩浆作用和火山触发机制；开展火山作用的试验模拟和火山灾害区划的定量模拟研究；建立火山灾害预警系统，制定火山灾害应急预案，以达到减轻火山灾害的目的。     

杭州区域环境噪声监测点位优化探索

在杭州市现有区域环境噪声手工监测点位的基础上,结合地理分布,采用系统聚类法对2012年149个点位的数据样本分类、合并,将149个点位优化到26个,并用T检验法验证数据可靠性。优化前后各城区的点位分布比例相差不大,等效声级绝对误差在1.0 d B(A)内,相对误差不超过±5%。经过2013年和2014年数据验证,确定优化后的点位能体现声环境功能区的代表性。