Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Contrasting home-range size and spatial partitioning in cryptic and sympatric pipistrelle bats

The extent of spatial partitioning in insectivorous bats, whose prey is patchily distributed and transient in nature, remains a contentious issue. The recent separation of a common Palaearctic bat, the pipistrelle, into Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus, which are morphologically similar and sympatric, provides an opportunity to examine this question. The present study used radio telemetry to address the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of P. pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus in northeast Scotland, to test the hypothesis that coexistence between these species is facilitated through spatial segregation. We reveal large and significant differences in the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of these two cryptic species. Individual P. pipistrellus home ranges were on average three times as large as that of P. pygmaeus, and they foraged for approximately an hour longer each night. Inter-specific spatial overlap was minimal (<5%) and core foraging areas of either species were essentially mutually exclusive despite the proximity of the two roosts. Inter-specific differences in range size were associated with the spatial dispersion of productive foraging sites within individual foraging ranges. P. pipistrellus foraging sites were highly dispersed, necessitating larger ranges. It is predicted that the spatial segregation revealed by the present study is a result of selection favouring the avoidance of competition in these species through differential habitat use.     

苏州河市郊段底泥中COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N的空间分布特征

对苏州河截流区外河段(城郊段)东大盈河口—北新泾,按河道形态,支流与城镇分布等因素,沿程采集24个底泥柱样,测定其不同部位不同深度底泥中COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N含量,分析COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N在沿程和垂向上的分布特征及其成因。结果表明,底泥中污染沿程分布呈不规则波状起伏,东大盈河、蕴藻浜、盐铁塘、封浜、华漕港、新槎浦等支流口,浮泥层中COD_(Cr)含量达2万mg/kg,超过背景值2—3倍,支流口下游200m范围内均较高;黄渡小支流口、华漕港支流口浮泥层中NH_3-H含量达250mg/kg,超过背景值3倍。在垂向分布上,底泥柱样都出现峰值分布,在某些弯道及支流口出现递减分布。底泥耗氧污染程度主要与支流及其排污量有关,其次是弯道凸岸处污染物易于沉积富集。这为苏州河市郊段环境综合治理、底泥疏浚和处置提供了科学依据。     

Analysis of heavy metal distribution in superficial estuarine sediments (estuary of Bilbao, Basque Country) by open-focused microwave-assisted extraction and ICP-OES

Open-focused microwave-assisted extraction and ICP-OES determination of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn from surface sediments of the estuary of Bilbao (Basque Country, North of Spain) was carried out. All the samples were collected at three different tributaries of the estuary (Asua, Galindo and Nerbioi-Ibaizabal) every two months during 1999. The digestion procedure was proposed from the conclusions of a fractionated factorial design, and the precision and accuracy of the method was verified using a certified reference sediment (RTC008-050). The results of the analysis were statistically treated by means of principal component analysis and correlation analysis. The principal component analysis of sediment data (32 samples × 9 metals) indicated different patterns of contamination regarding the tributary and sampling station. The two main patterns observed were a steady increment of the metal concentration along all the campaigns in the samples collected in the Galindo River and a seasonal variation in the Nerbioi-Ibaizabal River, with higher metallic content during summertime and lower content during wintertime.     

Concentrations and trends of benzene in ambient air over New York State during 1990–2003

Since 1990s, a systematic program to measure air toxics has been active in New York State with monitors located both in urban and rural areas. In this study we examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of benzene, a known human carcinogen that is emitted by many source categories. The analysis indicates that ambient concentration levels of benzene have decreased by as much as 60% over this period not only in the ozone non-attainment area of New York City that had the reformulated gas (RFG) requirements, but also over the rest of the state as well. Although the rate of decrease appears to have flattened out in recent years, the annual average concentration levels are found to be above the health risk threshold even at the remote location, Whiteface Mountain, suggesting the need for further reductions in benzene emissions.     

中国省级环境决策支持系统的系统分析

中国省级环境决策支持系统(DSS)是基于GIS和各种模型的空间决策支持系统?该文介绍了DSS系统的系统分析方法和内容,包括软件需求说明?数据需求说明和总体设计      

中国华南地区持续干期日数时空变化特征

利用华南地区46个地面气象站1960-2012年逐日降水数据,分析该地区各季节持续干期日数的时空分布特征。结果表明：1）近53年来,华南地区春季和夏季的持续干期日数呈波动下降趋势,下降速率分别为0.042和0.108 d·（10 a）-1;秋季和冬季的持续干期日数呈波动上升趋势,上升速率分别为1.911和0.118 d·（10 a）-1。广东省春季和夏季持续干期日数呈下降趋势,下降速率分别为0.171和0.243 d·（10 a）-1;秋季和冬季持续干期日数呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为1.737和0.32 d·（10 a）-1。广西省春、夏和秋季持续干期日数呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为0.109、0.046和2.117 d·（10 a）-1;冬季为减小趋势,减少速率为0.106 d·（10 a）-1。2）华南地区持续干期日数在春季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势,夏季呈自西南向东北逐渐增加的趋势,秋季呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势,冬季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势。冬季的持续干期日数是4个季节中最长的,大致在20~44 d。3）华南地区春季持续干期日数变化倾向率在-1.20~1.00 d·（10 a）-1之间,增加趋势最明显的区域是广西省的南部地区,减少趋势最明显的区域是广东省的沿海地区;夏季在-1.00~0.60 d·（10 a）-1之间,呈增加趋势的区域主要位于广西省的中部和南部,呈减少趋势的区域位于广东省大部分地区和广西省的东部;秋季在0~3.50 d·（10 a）-1之间,整体呈现增加趋势,变化倾向率较大的区域主要位于广西省的中部和广东省的东北部沿海地区;冬季在-1.50~2.00 d·（10 a）-1之间,呈增加趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的中南部和东部地区,以及广西的东部边缘,呈减少趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的北部以及广西的中部和西北部地区。持续干期日数增加趋势最明显的季节是秋季。4）持续干期日数与降水量表现出负相关性,与气温和无降水日数表现为正相关性。降水量和无降水日数的变化对持续干期日数的变化起着重要的作用,而温度对持续干期日数的影响比较小。     

Phosphorous cycling and biogeochemistry in a Venezuelan-flooded savanna

In 1970, a programme of land recuperation started in Venezuelan savannas, strongly affected by the seasonality of precipitation; therefore, a network of dykes has been built to alleviate the floods and retain water throughout the dry period. Under the dyked system, the environment has been altered, allowing a change in the herbaceous vegetation towards aquatic species and an increase in primary production. It is assumed that a considerable quantity of nutrients is lost from the ecosystem through the floodgates, a situation that could be worsened with the climate change. This contribution describes the atmospheric input and total output in stream run-off of phosphorous (P) in a flooded savanna. Internal pools of the biogeochemical cycle of P associated with terrestrial compartments are described. In the flooded savanna, a large amount of P is immobilised (29.6?kg?ha^?1) in their above ground biomass by grasses, and in soil microbial biomass. The P budget was nearly balanced, as measured losses were cancelled out by the inputs in rainfall. Soils act as a sink, retaining P coming either from precipitation or from desorption/mineralisation processes. That interruption can be maximised, and losses of P and other nutrients can be minimised with an adequate management of the floodgate.     

Interannual fluctuations in acoustic biomass estimates and in landings of small pelagic fish populations in relation to hydrology in the Strait of Sicily

The main results of research work carried out since 1998 with regard to the application of hydro-acoustic technologies for the evaluation of biomass and distribution of small pelagic fish species off the southern coast of Sicily are presented, taking into account information from hydrology and from ecology of the fish populations targeted. The biomass estimates and the population‐density charts presented concern the two main species, i.e. sardine Sardina pilchardus (Walbaum, 1792) and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758). Both the sardine and anchovy populations experienced large inter-annual fluctuations, with biomass estimates ranging from 6000 to over 36,000 tonnes (t) (sardine) and from about 7000 to 23,000 t (anchovy). Acoustic estimates are largely consistent with landings recorded in Sciacca (the main fishing port for small pelagic species in the study area) during the year following the evaluation surveys. In addition, trends in sardine and anchovy biomass estimates appears to be negatively correlated with the mean sea surface temperature calculated over the time intervals January–September (sardine) and June–November (anchovy) of the preceding year, which correspond to larval and juvenile growth periods of target species. Observed patterns would suggest the importance of enrichment processes relevant to the survival of early stages, so determining recruitment success and finally higher population sizes.     

Spatial variability in soil water and salinity in Tamarix community in a semiarid saline region of the upper Yellow River北大核心CSCD

Tamarix is widely distributed in semiarid saline regions of the upper Yellow River. The community of Tamarix affects the spatial distribution of soil water and salinity. It is important to explore the dynamic response relationship of Tamarix community and spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in order to evaluate the effects of vegetation community construction and ecological restoration in this region. The natural Tamarix community in the secondary saline-alkali land of the Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area was investigated in July 2016. Classical statistics and geostatistics were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of soil water and salinity. The results showed that the soil water content was relatively low (1.98%-7.55%), whereas the soil salinity was high (average conductivity 10.28-25.38 mS/cm) in the study area. The variability coefficient range of soil water and salinity was 36.1%-83.7%, both with moderate variations. Furthermore, the variation degree of soil salinity decreased with the increase in soil depth. The soil water and salinity had obvious spatial structure characteristics, which was mainly affected by structural factors or structural factors associated with stochastic factors. The coefficients of nugget were 0.04%-49.88%, indicating the strong spatial correlation. The spatial distribution of soil water and salinity in Tamarix community showed a patchy pattern; the soil water and salinity distribution in the areas with high Tamarix growing density were considerably high. The correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between soil water and salinity in the study area. In conclusion, soil water and salinity restrict the distribution and growth of Tamarix. Furthermore, the distribution and growth of Tamarix enhanced the spatial variability of soil water and salinity. Keywords. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.