Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.     

苯甲酰苯胺类化合物溶解度和分配系数的测定及定量结构—性质相关研究

本文采用摇瓶法测定了１４各甲酰苯胺类化合物的溶解度及正辛醇／水分配系数,二者之间具有较好的相关性,应用线性溶剂化相关方法获得的相关方程,能更好地预测测苯甲酰苯胺类化合物的的水溶解度和正辛醇／水分配系数。     

Bushcricket song structure and predation by the acoustically orienting parasitoid fly Therobia leonidei (Diptera: Tachinidae: Ormiini)

Males of most bushcricket species produce acoustic advertisement signals to attract females for mating. These signals can also increase conspicuousness to predators. In the genus Poecilimon (Orthoptera: Phaneropterinae) males are attacked by the parasitoid fly Therobia leonidei (Diptera: Tachinidae: Ormiini) which locates males by their calls. In Greece T.leonidei parasitizes several Poecilimon species with different song structures: we examined whether host choice is related to song structure by comparing parasitism rates in two closely related Poecilimon species. One of these species produces monosyllabic songs, the songs of the other species being polysyllabic. The tachinid fly parasitized the polysyllabic species to a greater extent. We demonstrate in a field-experiment that this preference for the polysyllabic species does not depend on local adaptations of the fly. The most probable explanation for the preference of the fly for the polysyllabic singing species seems to be better detection of longer songs. This result is discussed in the context of male song evolution. Received: 4 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1998     

Factors affecting the floristic diversity and nestedness in the islets of Lake Bardawil, North Sinai, Egypt: implications for conservation

Island biogeography theory and nestedness are two relevant and important concepts in biogeography and conservation. However, their integration and application has not been examined for maintaining or maximizing species diversity, especially in arid regions. The aim of this study is to investigate the ecological mechanisms related to the observed pattern of floristic diversity and nestedness in the Lake Bardawil islets on the Mediterranean coast of Sinai Peninsula before the execution of the North Sinai Agricultural Development Project (NSADP) that will threaten the ecosystem of the lake. Plant species on 15 islets were identified and categorized into ecological groups related to their life-form, salt tolerance and succulence. Richness of total plant species and their ecological groups were positively correlated with islet area, number of habitats and elevation, and negatively with disturbance index. The temperature calculator detected highly significant nestedness for the entire flora and all ecological groups. Distance from the mainland had no effect on either species richness or nested pattern of total plant species and their ecological groups. Both the analyses of species richness and nested distribution yielded evidence for a positive species-area relationship. Although nestedness was detected for the entire plant species and their ecological groups, many species and islets exhibited idiosyncratic distribution. Idiosyncrasies could be mainly attributed to demographic stochasticity which is an important character for species interaction and diversity maintenance in arid regions. Therefore, in developing conservation strategies for the Lake Bardawil islets, it is important to incorporate spatial and temporal stability of populations.     

生态系统服务约束关系界定及影响机制分析

以长江经济带为研究对象,选择InVEST模型对长江经济带代表性的5种生态系统服务进行评估,根据两两配对关系原理进行约束线提取,并构建生态系统服务约束关系与影响因素相互作用模型,对其作用机制进行探究.结果表明,2000～2015年长江经济带5种生态系统服务两两间共表现出矩形型,对数型,抛物线型和驼峰型4种约束类型;7种影...     

Employee responses to employment‐relationship practices: The role of psychological empowerment and traditionality

In studying the effect of employment‐relationship practices on employees, research has largely ignored individual differences, both cross‐culturally and within cultures. In this study, the authors examine the moderating effect of middle managers' traditionality, a within‐culture value orientation regarding submission to authority and endorsement of hierarchical role relationships, on their responses to an organization's employee–organization relationship practices. Based on social learning and social exchange theories, the authors expect the more traditional middle managers to respond less positively in terms of their performance and commitment to high levels of expected contributions and the associated psychological empowerment but respond more positively to high levels of offered inducements. Using a sample of 535 middle managers from 40 companies in China, the authors find support for all hypotheses except the moderating effect of traditionality on the relationship between offered inducements and performance. Additional analysis reveals that less‐traditional managers responded to economic rewards (but not developmental rewards) with higher job performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications for research and the practice of employment relationships. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution of aerosol pollution based on MODIS data over Beijing, China

With the help of regression analysis,the relationships were detected between aerosol's contribution to apparent reflectance(ACR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)on board Terra and hourly PM_(10)mass concentration measured at 30 ground-based locations in Beijing for the August of 2003 and 2004.It was shown that there was a good correlation between the ACR and PM_(10)(linear correlation coefficient,R=0.56).On the basis of this relationship,spatial distribution and possible sources of PM_(10)derived from MODIS were analyzed and two frequently heavily-polluted regions were found,namely downtown of the city and the district near Xishan Mountain.These two regions coincidently are also urban heat island centers.The foundings of this paper will be greatly useful for environmental monitoring and urban planning for Beijing,especially for the 2008 Olympic game to be held in Beijing.     

Surfactant-induced changes in gravity fingering of water through a light oil

Gravity-driven preferential flow (fingering) can greatly affect how one fluid displaces another in the subsurface. We have studied the internal properties of these preferential flow paths for water, with and without surfactants, infiltrating into oil saturated porous media using synchrotron X-rays, and miniature tensiometers to characterize fluid content and pressure relationships. We also used a light transmission technique to visualize overall flow pattern. Capillary pressure and water content decrease behind the front, similar to fingers in air-dry sand, with quantitative differences for five different surfactants with surface tensions ranging from 4–21 g/s². Using unstable flow theory, the finger widths, capillary pressure drops within the fingers, finger tip lengths, and finger splitting dynamics were scaled successfully with interfacial tension, fluid density, and the contact angle using the fingers in air–water systems as the reference.     

Measurement of air exchange rates in different indoor environments using continuous CO2 sensors

A new air exchange rate (AER) monitoring method using continuous CO₂ sensors was developed and validated through both laboratory experiments and field studies. Controlled laboratory simulation tests were conducted in a 1-m³ environmental chamber at different AERs (0.1-10.0 hr^-1). AERs were determined using the decay method based on box model assumptions. Field tests were conducted in classrooms, dormitories, meeting rooms and apartments during 2-5 weekdays using CO₂ sensors coupled with data loggers. Indoor temperature, relative humidity (RH), and CO₂ concentrations were continuously monitored while outdoor parameters combined with on-site climate conditions were recorded. Statistical results indicated that good laboratory performance was achieved: duplicate precision was within 10%, and the measured AERs were 90%-120% of the real AERs. Average AERs were 1.22, 1.37, 1.10, 1.91 and 0.73 hr^-1 in dormitories, air-conditioned classrooms, classrooms with an air circulation cooling system, reading rooms, and meeting rooms, respectively. In an elderly particulate matter exposure study, all the homes had AER values ranging from 0.29 to 3.46 hr??1 in fall, and 0.12 to 1.39 hr^-1 in winter with a median AER of 1.15.     

基于农户层次的陕北黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统耦合关系研究

农业生态经济系统耦合是一个复杂的过程,是潜变量与潜变量、潜变量与可测变量及可测变量之间相互作用的结果,结构方程模型的建立很好地描述了这一复杂关系。通过对吴起县、安塞县和宝塔区共建的中尺度生态农业建设试验示范区、米脂县等3个典型区域所代表的黄土丘陵区及其各个区域农业生态经济系统结构方程模型的建立与运算,结果表明:在"退耕还林还草工程"等外力作用下,农业生态经济系统运行模式基本揭示了农业产业与农业资源相互耦合这一本质规律,但现状耦合模式并未充分利用农业资源,系统耦合效果较低。农业产业与农业资源对系统耦合的影响系数分别为0.54和0.16,农业产业和农业资源之间的相关系数只有0.28,即农业资源没有很好地支撑产业的发展,导致农业生态经济系统耦合效果不明显,存在着局部相悖的态势,潜伏了林草资源与其相关产业链网缺失现象。为此,需要强化农业产业与农业资源的互动过程,特别要发展林草及其相关产业,促进林草资源的有效利用,促使系统耦合效果的不断提高,增加经济效益。