全球CO_2排放研究趋势及其对我国的启示

近几年,全球气候变暖已经成为国际社会的共识,由此而引发的温室气体减排计划也陆续在主要发达国家开始实施,有关CO_2排放问题的研究也成为全球的学术焦点.通过对全球CO_2排放研究趋势的总结发现:首先,国际社会有关CO_2排放的核算方法不断完善,从IPCC(1995)到IPCC(2006),内容更加完善,方法更趋合理;其次,排放责任的区分日益公平合理,随着"碳转移"和"碳泄露"问题研究的深入,有关排放责任区分方法的研究逐渐在从生产视角向消费视角转变;第三,排放因素分解逐步深入,分解公式包括KAYA公式和投入产出公式,分解方法从指数法到平均对数法再到微积分法,分解模型日趋成熟和多元化;第四,排放预测模型也不断综合化、长期化,自上而下模型和自下而上模型逐渐相互借鉴和融合.在此基础上,笔者对我国CO_2排放研究提出了几点启发,即加快排放因子数据库建设,重视责任排放和结构分析研究,提高自主建模的水平和完善我国技术环境数据库等.以期提高我国对温室气体排放现状和历史的认识,在国际气候变化领域发挥积极的作用.     

Assessment of decadal changes in sediment contamination in a large connecting channel (Detroit River,North America)

Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn) and organic contaminants (PCBs, PAHs) were investigated in samples from the Detroit River (Great Lakes, North America) in 1999 and 2008/09 collected using a stratified random sampling design. Getis–Ord geospatial analysis was used to further establish locations of areas demonstrating significantly high and low contaminant concentrations in the river. Based on the stratified random sampling design, a majority of the examined metals and organic contaminants demonstrated little or no trends with respect to regional sediment concentrations and river-wide mass balances over the investigated time interval. The Getis–Ord analysis revealed local scales of contaminated and clean areas which did not conform to the original strata used in the geostatistical sampling design. It is suggested that geospatial analyses such as Getis–Ord be used in the design of future sediment quality surveys to refine locations of strata that can simultaneously address sediment recovery over system-wide, regional and local spatial scales.     

Evaluation of the Impact of Long-range Transport and Aerosol Concentration Temporal Variations at the Eastern Coast of the Baltic Sea

Ambient particles vary greatly in their ability to affect visibility, climate and human health. The fine fraction of aerosol is responsible for greater and wider effects on human health; thus, investigation of this fraction is very important. Continuous measurements of PM2.5 (particulate matter below 2.5 μm in size) concentrations at the Preila monitoring station started in 2003. During a period of 2 years, the episodes of high daily and semi-hourly concentrations of PM2.5 were measured. These episodes did not depend on the season or time of day. The substantial role of long-range transport of pollutants to these increases in concentration was shown using chemical and statistical analysis. It was found that most of the severe episodes occurred when air masses came from a specific site besides it was established that air masses of different origin were characterized by different mixing layer depth. Lower mixing depth was observed in air masses characterized by higher observed concentrations at the measuring site and vice versa. PM2.5 concentrations showed diurnal and seasonal variations whose pattern reflected the regional origin of the aerosol. The regional pollution level was evaluated by the statistical analysis of PM2.5 concentrations. The background annual average of PM2.5 mass concentration for the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea was 15.1 ± 0.8 μg m⁻³.     

Spatial concentration distributions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in Patras, Greece, in a winter period

An economic and quick methodology for performing a preliminary spatial assessment of a city air quality with the purpose to identify locations and zones susceptible to high pollution levels is proposed. A Patras case-study is selected, regarding the air pollutants of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). A total number of 451 samples of short duration, of which 225 were randomly picked in morning rush hours and 226 within evening rush hours, were collected from 50 locations of the major Patras area during a year period, when peaks of primary air pollutants usually occur. Concentration measurements at prescribed locations used to statistically calculate spatial average concentrations approximating 1-h mean values with mean probable errors less than 25.9% for SO₂, NO and NO_x and less than 15.5% for NO₂. Then iso-concentration contour diagrams plotted indicate high pollution zones and possibly appropriate locations for continuous or random monitoring according to the European Community (EC) Directives. The 1-h mean concentrations were in good correlation to the corresponding traffic rates and useful relationships are given (0.54 ≤ r ≤ 0.63). In addition, comparisons with data available for other cities, as well as with the limit and guide values provided by the EC and the World Health Organization (WHO) were given. The present data could be useful for the design and optimization of a city network of stations for monitoring air quality, for environmental impact assessments, future reference and comparisons due to city development needs, as well as for validating dispersion models.     

淀山湖总氮和总磷的时空模拟分布

为了解氮磷在淀山湖的时空分布特征及变化规律,运用ELCOM-CAEDYM耦合模块分析了2008年淀山湖总氮和总磷浓度的时空变异。研究表明:模型较好地模拟了淀山湖上覆水中的总氮、总磷的时空分布,总氮、总磷质量浓度总体变化趋势与实测值相一致。淀山湖春冬季总氮的质量浓度要明显高于夏秋季,3月份是淀山湖总氮质量浓度最高的时候,千墩港是淀山湖总氮质量浓度最高的区域。淀山湖总磷的分布并未表现出季节上的规律性,空间分布整体呈现北高南低的趋势。     

红枫湖特征污染物变化趋势分析

时红枫湖2004年至2007年的特征污染物总磷、总氮以及氨氮的变化趋势以及库容变化进行分析.结果表明,红枫湖总磷严重超标,所有监测垂线超标率为100%;总磷浓度年均值南湖高于北湖,五条监莉垂线由南向北总磷浓度呈递减趋势;从总磷的总量来看,四年间总磷总量增幅较大,2007年比2004年增加895.3吨.总氮、氨氮亦严重超标,年均浓度值超标率为100%,并且氨氮与总氮变化趋势一致.2004年～2007年红枫湖年平均库容量呈逐年上升趋势,但污染物总磷和总氮的浓度并没有降低,其总量也随着上升.     

新疆750kV变电站周围电磁环境水平及其特征分析

通过对新疆已建成运行的3座750 kV超高压变电站附近的电磁环境水平进行分析,阐述新疆750 kV超高压变电站周围电磁环境的变化特征,并提出相应的电磁辐射减缓措施。     

Trends in Pesticide Use and Efficacy During 26 Years of Changing Agriculture in Southern England

We report on trends in agricultural pesticide use from1970 to 1995 inclusive in arable crops on the SouthDowns, West Sussex, U.K. Information is given on theproportion of cropped area treated with pesticides,the percentage spray area, the number of pesticideapplications per field, and the number of compoundsapplied per field for herbicides, foliar fungicidesand insecticides. Compared to national publishedfigures, our data are broadly representative of thenational picture; they provide a complete and detailedtime series whereas national figures are available foronly 7 out of the 26 yr. In general, the areatreated (fungicides, insecticides) and the intensityof use (all three types of pesticide) increased overthe 26 yr. The spectrum of activity of theherbicides applied to arable crops increased from anaverage of 22 weed taxa susceptible in 1970 to 38 weedtaxa susceptible in 1995. The odds on herbicide andfungicide use in break crops were, respectively, 93%and 99% lower than average; odds on insecticide usein spring cereals were 98% lower than average. Comparing winter wheat on the most traditional farm(grass/cereal rotation) with the most modern one(monoculture winter wheat), the proportion of fieldstreated with herbicides was similar, but the odds onbeing treated with fungicides were 129% higher on themodern farm. Insecticides were used in only 2% ofthe fields on the traditional farm, while on themodern farm over the same time period, 79% of thefields were treated. This fits previously observeddifferences in wildlife abundance on the two farms.     

广东不同环境大气污染特性比较

利用2014年广东南岭背景站、天湖郊区站、磨碟沙城区站和受体区域桃源站SO2、NO2、PM10、O3、PM2.5与CO自动监测数据,分析不同环境大气污染特性。结果表明,4个站点的SO2、NO2、PM10与CO整体平均年均值较低,分别为14,28,59μg/m3和0.7 mg/m3;PM2.5整体平均值为36μg/m3,O3日最大8 h第90百分位数平均值为172μg/m3,二者高于国家二级标准限值。磨碟沙城区站和桃源站的污染物日变化规律较为明显,NO2、PM10和PM2.5在早晚交通高峰或紧接其后的时段出现峰值区。南岭背景站PM2.5质量浓度日间略高于夜间;O3未呈典型单峰分布,而是维持在较平稳、较高浓度水平。周末与工作日O3平均值的相对高低多与NO2、PM10和PM2.5的情况相反。4个站点O3日最大8 h值第90百分位数均未达标;南岭背景站和天湖郊区站O3值尤高,除10月外,在1月或6月也易出现O3高值。区域性的O3污染控制亟须深化开展。     

Global Research Trends Related to CO2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is more prominent) , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed countries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other researchers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of "carbon transfer" and "carbon leakage", the perspective and methodology for allocating regional CO2 emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expression and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.