中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅲ.次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策

本文通过种群自我调节的规律以及Leslie模型进行数量动态分析,从而提出了次生林数量动态与经营的生态经济对策。     

污水分析方法监测城市毒品滥用长期趋势

毒品滥用问题是全球广泛关注的社会问题,对城市毒品滥用情况进行长期监测具有重要意义.采用污水流行病学的方法,对大连市毒品的滥用情况进行连续长期调查.2020～2021年采集大连市22个污水处理厂的进口污水,通过气相色谱衍生化方法分析测定甲基苯丙胺、海洛因、氯胺酮、摇头丸和可卡因的生物标志物的浓度,即其尿液代谢产物甲基苯丙胺、吗啡、氯胺酮、摇头丸和苯甲酰芽子碱.结果表明,2020年p(甲基苯丙胺)、p(吗啡)和p(氯胺酮)均值分别为23.69、23.21和2.40 ng·L-1;2021年均值分别为20.64、20.92和0.47 ng·L-1,在所有的污水样品中均未检测出摇头丸和苯甲酰芽子碱,根据相关信息估算5种毒品的人均滥用量,并结合往年监测数据分析大连市这5种毒品的滥用趋势.甲基苯丙胺和海洛因滥用量均在2019年有上升趋势,2020大幅度下降,2021年基本保持不变;氯胺酮的滥用则一直处于较低水平.本研究为大连市实时监控毒品滥用情况提供科学依据,对防治毒品犯罪具有重要意义.     

五常流域拉林河水环境现状、变化趋势及防治对策

本文运用单因子指数细致分析了五常流域拉林河水环境质量现状,运用秩相关系数定量研究9a的水环境污染变化趋势,明确提出了防治水污染的主要对策。     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅱ.次生林的演替规律

本文研究了湖南省中亚热带次生林的种群动态,建立了静态生命表、存活曲线、结构模型以及材积或生物量动态模型,提出了中亚热带次生林的演替基本模式。     

阿勒泰地区雾的气候特征与变化趋势及其对人体的影响研究

利用1961年-2012年阿勒泰地区气象观测资料,对雾的时空分布特征和变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:阿勒泰地区雾日数在时间分布上,初春的3月出现最多;冬季(12月-翌年2月)雾出现的比例最高,占37.6%。20世纪80年代年雾出现日数最多,2000年至今最少。阿勒泰地区雾日数在空间分布上也不是很均匀,区域性为西部的吉木乃、哈巴河县最多,东部的富蕴、青河县最少。阿勒泰地区雾出现日数年变化率与各县站的变化趋势一致,均呈明显的下降趋势,在1966年出现了减少的突变现象。R/S方法分析表明,各县站未来的年雾出现日数仍会呈减少趋势,雾天对人体有一定的影响。     

2010—2019年台州市市区降水化学组成特征及变化趋势

为了解台州市市区大气降水化学成分组成特征及变化规律,对2010—2019年台州市市区降水监测数据进行了统计分析。结果表明:2010—2019年降水样品pH为4.20～4.84夏高冬低,强酸性降水频率下降显著,电导率平均值为3.16 mS/cm。SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-是降水中最主要的阴离子,NH_4~+和Ca~(2+)是降水中最主要的阳离子。Ca~(2+)浓度在2018年开始有所抬升,SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-浓度整体呈波动下降趋势。SO_4~(2-)与NO_3~-浓度比均值为1.50,呈下降趋势,同大气中SO_2与NO_2的质量浓度比变化趋势基本一致。SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-相关性显著,Cl~-、Na~+及Mg~(2+)三者之间具有较好相关性。降水与气态污染物相关性不大,对颗粒物有明显冲刷去除作用。SO_2和NO_x的排放量显著下降,酸雨污染呈现改善过程。     

鄱阳湖湿地现状问题与未来趋势

近年来鄱阳湖秋冬季水文呈干枯态势,湿地生态系统及其关键因子也发生了变化。如何合理保护和利用鄱阳湖湿地引起各方关注。系统综述了鄱阳湖湿地生态系统在水文、江湖关系、水质、水鸟栖息地、渔业资源等方面存在的问题,梳理了引起这些问题的外部和内部因素。针对"一切照常"和"水位调控"两种情景,预测了湿地未来的变化趋势,并指出了当前研究中的不确定性问题。研究认为:鄱阳湖秋冬季的低枯水位,对水质、湿地植被、水鸟栖息地以及鱼类食物资源和"三场"(即:产卵场、洄游通道、索饵场)产生了一定不利影响。建议通过模型模拟和情景预测来分析不同调控方案的影响效果,优化调控方案、将生态系统的负面影响降到最低。     

南汇边滩的沉积特征和沉积物输运趋势

在对南汇边滩沉积物粒度特征进行分析的基础上,利用Gao Collins泥沙概率输运模型探讨边滩的沉积物输运趋势,结果表明：①沉积物中值粒径、分选系数和偏度的分布具有一致性,三者相关性较强;②边滩的沉积物粒度特征表现为正偏,分选性较差,分选系数值集中在2左右,沉积物相对较粗（中值粒径大于0.01 mm）的区域主要集中在没冒沙中部、南汇咀及卢潮港近岸,其它区域沉积物相对较细（中值粒径小于0.01 mm）;③将 Gao Collins的泥沙概率模型和南汇边滩的动力与沉积环境结合表明,沉积物在东滩的净输运趋势是由北向南输运。由于南滩的动力条件相对复杂,因此南滩沉积物的净输运趋势有待进一步分析。     

Relating meteorological variables and trends in motor vehicle emissions to monthly urban carbon monoxide concentrations

A model which quantifies the relationship between the monthly time series for CO emissions, the monthly time series in ambient CO concentration, and meteorologically driven dispersion was developed. Fifteen cities representing a wide range of geographical and climatic conditions were selected. An eight-year time series (1984–1991 inclusive) of monthly averaged data were examined in each city. A new method of handling missing ambient concentration values which is designed to calculate city-wide average concentrations that follow the trend seen at individual monitor sites is presented. This method is general and can be used in other applications involving missing data. The model uses emissions estimates along with two meteorological variables (wind speed and mixing height) to estimate monthly averages of ambient air pollution concentrations. The model is shown to have a wide range of applicability; it works equally well for a wide range of cities that have very different temporal CO distributions. The model is suited for assessing long-term trends in ambient air pollutants and can also be used for estimating seasonal variations in concentration, estimation of trends in emissions, and for filling in gaps in the ambient concentration record.     

Temporal changes in Ohio amniocentesis utilization during the first twelve years (1972–1983), and frequency of chromosome abnormalities observed

The history of amniocentesis utilization in the seventh largest state of the United States is documented from its inception in 1972 through the first half of 1984. Amniocentesis utilization ratios for Ohio residents aged ⩾35 have increased from 0.21 per cent (19/9091) in 1972 to 23.4 per cent (1655/7531) in 1983, representing an average annual growth rate of 43.1 per cent. Of the amniocenteses performed from January 1, 1978–July 1, 1984, 71 per cent were referred for advanced maternal age (⩾35), 15 per cent for maternal anxiety (30–34), 10 per cent for family history or previous child with a genetic defect, and 4 per cent for other reasons. Between 1978-1983 utilization by women 45 years of age was only 20 per cent higher than women 35 even though their risk of giving birth to a Down syndrome child was about one order of magnitude higher. In addition, various factors were tested as to whether they affected utilization of amniocentesis by women ⩾35 during 1978 1983. A strong correlation of +0.89 existed between county population size and utilization ratios. No difference in utilization was found between whites and nonwhites, regardless of county population size. When utilization ratios were compared separately between Protestants, Catholics and other religions in Ohio's most populated county, no statistical differences were found. From 1978–July 1, 1984, the frequency of all cytogenetically abnormal chromosome results observed in Ohio amniocenteses to women ⩾35 was 2.48 per cent (187/7536). Of these, 2.15 per cent (162/7536) had unbalanced karyotypes. Future maximum amniocentesis utilization for women ⩾35 is estimated at 60–70 per cent.