我国道路运输现代化建设评价体系的建立

交通运输系统是国民经济的重要生产系统 ,同时又是国民经济发展的重要条件 ,其中道路运输作为交通运输系统的一个子系统 ,其现代化的实质就是建设与基本实现现代化的社会经济相适应的道路运输。笔者介绍了交通运输现代化的含义以及我国道路运输现代化建设的必要性及内容要求 ;给出了建立我国道路运输现代化建设评价体系应遵循的 5项原则 ;进而在借鉴山东省交通运输现代化道路运输现代化目标体系结构的基础上 ,对我国道路运输现代化建设评价指标体系进行了科学、合理的设计 ;最后建立了一套我国道路运输现代化建设综合评判模型 ,该模型包括我国道路运输现代化建设的评价标准确定、指标权数确定方法以及评价方法的选择。     

Aerosol Number Concentrations during Kosa Events on Suburban Hills in Japan

Measurements of aerosol size-separated number concentrations were performed in March 2001 on the Tama Hills of Japan, located near regions of heavy industry. The concentrations of particles larger than 1.0 μ m in diameter dramatically increased during the Kosa phenomena on 6–8 and 18–24 March. The number concentrations of coarse particles (> 3.0 μm) showed distinct diurnal variations, especially during the Kosa events. Fine particles smaller than 0.5 μm increased when the relative humidity was high and the wind speed was low. On the other hand, the coarse particles concentrations were well correlated with wind speed and temperature. The dry deposition velocity of the coarse particles at the forest canopy was estimated from the nighttime decrease in the number concentrations.     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

气候环境试验设备温度参数数据处理方法的分析与探讨

不同的温度参数数据处理方法有不同的计算结果,本文针对检测与评定气候环境试验设备的技术性能中存在的问题,分析了三个标准(GB 11158-89、GB/T 5170.1-1995、JTM K 05-1991)的温度参数数据处理方法,比对了二组实际检测数据的计算结果,说明"绝对极值法"科学准确、简捷实用.     

System failure probability evaluation using fault tree analysis and expert opinions in intuitionistic fuzzy environment

In quantitative fault tree analysis of a system, exact failure probability values of components are utilized to calculate the failure probability of the system. However, in many real world problems, it is problematic to get precise and sufficient failure data of system components due to insufficient or imprecise information about components, changing environment or new components. A methodology has already been developed by employing fuzzy set theory for the system reliability evaluation by utilizing qualitative failure data of system components when quantitative failure data of components are inaccessible or insufficient. This paper extends the concept of fuzzy set to intuitionistic fuzzy set and proposes a novel approach to evaluate system failure probability using intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree analysis with qualitative failure data of system components. The qualitative failure data such as expert opinions are collected as linguistic terms. These linguistic terms are then quantified by triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers in form of membership function and non-membership function. Additionally, a method is developed for combining the different opinions of experts. To illustrate the applicability of proposed approach, a case study of the crude oil tank fire and explosion accident is performed. The obtained results are very close to the results from pre-existing approaches which confirm that the proposed approach is a more realistic alternative for the study of system reliability in intuitionistic fuzzy environment when quantitative failure data of system components are not known. To help decision makers for improving the security execution of the crude oil tank system, importance measures including Fussell-Vesely importance and cut sets importance are also executed.     

论基于多元联系数的集对分析评价模型

集对分析是一种处理不确定性问题的系统分析方法,利用该方法对系统危险性进行了评价,指出了多元联系数集对分析方法在系统危险性评价中存在的不足,探讨了其应用条件,提出了与系统级别特征值相结合来判断系统危险性级别的方法,并给出了多元联系数集对分析的评价程序。实例表明,该方法科学、可行,为系统危险性评价提供了一种新的思路。     

In-vehicle Measurement of Ultrafine Particles on Compressed Natural Gas, Conventional Diesel, and Oxidation-catalyst Diesel Heavy-duty Transit Buses

Many metropolitan transit authorities are considering upgrading transit bus fleets to decrease ambient criteria pollutant levels. Advancements in engine and fuel technology have lead to a generation of lower-emission buses in a variety of fuel types. Dynamometer tests show substantial reductions in particulate mass emissions for younger buses (<10 years) over older models, but particle number reduction has not been verified in the research. Recent studies suggest that particle number is a more important factor than particle mass in determining health effects. In-vehicle particle number concentration measurements on conventional diesel, oxidation-catalyst diesel and compressed natural gas transit buses are compared to estimate relative in-vehicle particulate exposures. Two primary consistencies are observed from the data: the CNG buses have average particle count concentrations near the average concentrations for the oxidation-catalyst diesel buses, and the conventional diesel buses have average particle count concentrations approximately three to four times greater than the CNG buses. Particle number concentrations are also noticeably affected by bus idling behavior and ventilation options, such as, window position and air conditioning.     

An overview of experimental results and dispersion modelling of nanoparticles in the wake of moving vehicles

Understanding the transformation of nanoparticles emitted from vehicles is essential for developing appropriate methods for treating fine scale particle dynamics in dispersion models. This article provides an overview of significant research work relevant to modelling the dispersion of pollutants, especially nanoparticles, in the wake of vehicles. Literature on vehicle wakes and nanoparticle dispersion is reviewed, taking into account field measurements, wind tunnel experiments and mathematical approaches.Field measurements and modelling studies highlighted the very short time scales associated with nanoparticle transformations in the first stages after the emission. These transformations strongly interact with the flow and turbulence fields immediately behind the vehicle, hence the need of characterising in detail the mixing processes in the vehicle wake. Very few studies have analysed this interaction and more research is needed to build a basis for model development. A possible approach is proposed and areas of further investigation identified.     

大气超细颗粒物观测和扩散模拟研究进展

总结了近年来不同地区对不同环境下大气超细颗粒物的观测和扩散模拟研究进展。大量的观测研究结果表明,大气超细颗粒物的时空分布、组成特征、形成和成长的特性因观测地区的不同而存在很大差异,受气象因素和局部污染源的影响很大;其来源主要包括固定、移动燃烧源的直接排放和大气中颗粒成核现象,前一种来源一般是局部的,而后一种来源则是区域性的。目前,大多数关于大气超细颗粒物扩散的模拟研究都是针对其质量浓度的,对其数浓度扩散的模拟研究主要集中在小范围(机动车排放烟云的研究方面),在城市区域范围上的研究和应用还很少。最后,探讨和展望了大气超细颗粒物今后的主要研究方向和研究中面临的挑战。