计算毒理学在内分泌干扰物筛选上的应用和展望

内分泌干扰物通过干扰内分泌系统导致多种疾病,如生殖疾病、肥胖症甚至癌症。然而,面对环境中大量潜在的内分泌干扰物,传统的体外、体内评估方法由于成本高、耗时长等问题,难以实现内分泌干扰物的高通量筛查。计算毒理学逐渐发展成为被美国环保局(Environmental Protection Agency,EPA)、经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,OECD)等机构所推荐的内分泌干扰物筛选与预测方法。本文综述了计算毒理学在内分泌干扰物筛选上的进展,主要包括分子对接和分子动力学模拟的应用,并对有害结局路径(adverse outcome pathway,AOP)的方法进行介绍和展望。     

The channels of the effect of government expenditure on the environment: evidence using dynamic panel data

This paper explores the relationship between government spending and environmental quality using panel data for 94 countries for the period 1970–2008. We identify and estimate three distinct channels that comprise the total direct effect of government expenditure on air pollution, namely a marginal effect, an effect conditional on economic growth and an effect conditional on institutional quality. Since adjustment rate of emissions to their equilibrium level is slow due to technological and institutional reasons, we explicitly take into account dynamics by applying appropriate econometric methods. The results demonstrate that there is a significant alleviating direct effect of government expenditure on SO₂ and NO_x emissions, which increases with the level of economic growth and democracy. However, there is no evidence of a significant effect on pollutants with more global impact on the environment and human health, like N₂O and CO₂, implying that the adoption of international environmental treaties is required in this case.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

柔性散粒材料静力及动力学性能实验研究

战场环境下单兵防常规炸弹爆炸抗震减震技术装备及器材,由于受经费投入、战场环境等因素影响,一直没有成功研制并得到装备.通过室内砂箱振动台震动模拟试验,测试了不同柔性散粒材料在震动条件下的加速度值,对其减震性能作了一些初步的探讨.通过研究,可以看到柔性散粒材料在隔震方面具有其他材料所不具有的优越性能,可以作为制造隔震器材的首选.     

建筑火灾烟气中CO迁移规律的FDS模拟

以T型"侧间-走廊"典型建筑火灾为模拟对象,分析烟气在走廊中的水平和垂直流动特征,并对火源房门高低、走廊端头启闭和多房门启闭等场景使用火灾模拟软件(FDS)进行了模拟和远距离房间CO浓度的迁移规律的分析。结果表明:烟气从火源房间经拱腹溢出在走廊中形成受限空间的顶棚射流;门檐高度决定了CO能够在走廊中的迁移量;烟气在走廊远距离封闭端头形成上部的热烟气层,中部回流层和下层的补气层;其中中部烟气回流层的高低、流速和CO浓度是影响临近非火源房间CO浓度的重要因素。走廊启闭和多房门火灾场景的模拟结果也进一步证明了CO的迁移规律。     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

The role of periodic boundary forcing in plankton pattern formation

We consider one and two-dimensional minimal models in plankton dynamics. The influence of oscillating boundary forcing functions as agents for triggering pattern formation is discussed. In particular it is found that in these conditions population waves arise for one dimensional models, while for two dimensional models, different amplitudes and frequencies in the boundary forcing generate definite patterns, mimicking the boundary term. This happens even though the model we investigate is very simple. The emergence of these features is an interesting metaphor for the fundamental biological problem of how pattern formation processes may be inevitable in natural heterogeneous ecosystems.     

木根麦冬的种群数量动态

运用静态生命表、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型,研究了木根麦冬种群数量动态过程,揭示了种群各龄级植株的动态规律,结果表明,木根麦冬种群为衰退型种群,种群的净增殖率、内禀增长率和周限增长率较低,种群世代周期偏长,种群不能自我更新,在20a内种群幼苗数量和总数量将持续快速下降,木根麦冬种群在16-20a年龄段受到了环境筛的强烈过滤作用。     

Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie

Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends.     

洪泽湖水体富营养化时空分布特征与影响因素分析

通过2014年—2017年对洪泽湖12个水质断面定期调查,采用营养状态指数(TLI)综合评价其水体富营养状态,同时应用主成分分析方法(PCA)分析其富营养化状态的时空变化特征。结果表明,洪泽湖70%以上的调查断面水质全年处于轻度富营养化状态,夏季是其富营养化最严重的季节;洪泽湖年内水体水质差异较大,而其水华特征并未呈现明显差异;洪泽湖富营养化很大程度上受制于营养盐的积累程度,并与湖泊透明度呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.001),与湖水pH值呈现极显著的正相关关系。