Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

添加剂PEG对共混超滤膜结构和性能的影响

以不同分子量聚乙二醇 (PEG)作为PSf/A共混超滤膜的添加剂 ,测定所制备膜的水通量、截留率 .结果表明 ,膜的水通量随PEG分子量的变化呈现非线性关系 .当PEG分子量为4000时 ,水通量达到最大值115.2mL·(cm²·h)^-1,是不加PEG时的6倍 .通过超滤实验结果以及膜结构的电镜照片的观察 ,研究了PSf/A共混超滤膜体系中PEG作用的规律 .PEG分子量的增加改变了PSf/A铸膜液体系的相平衡关系 ,使铸膜液成为热力学不稳定体系 ,加速了相分离的发生 ;另外 ,PEG分子量的增加提高了铸膜液的粘度 ,引起相分离的延迟,这2种作用影响了膜的最终结构和性能.     

甲基叔丁基醚的研究进展

甲基叔丁基醚(MTBE)用作汽油添加剂具有很多优点,但由于MTBE本身的性质,决定了其对生态环境也有一定的影响。介绍了MTBE的基本性质、国内外生产概况、制备工艺、对环境的潜在危害及替代品等。     

功能性低聚糖在饲料添加剂中的应用

低聚糖或称寡糖是由2-10个单糖分子通过糖苷键连接组成的小聚合体。作为一种新型的功能性饲料添加剂,在动物体内可促进消化道有益菌的生长,抑制有害病原菌的繁殖,提高动物机体免疫力。多数试验研究表明,饲料中添加适量低聚糖,能在较大程度上替代抗生素而改善动物健康,增强抗病力,提高家禽及幼龄动物成活率,提高动物的生长增重和饲料转化率。     

含微胶囊添加剂的低压细水雾厨房灭火实验研究

通过全尺寸实验研究低压细水雾对抑制和熄灭K类火灾的有效性。选用三种喷头进行灭火实验,并选择灭火效果最好的喷头进行含微胶囊F-500添加剂的细水雾灭火实验。结果表明,低压细水雾对抑制和熄灭食用油火灾具有一定的效果,但容易发生复燃。而添加了微胶囊F-500的低压细水雾,灭火效率较纯细水雾提高约3～10倍,且能有效地避免复燃,同时提高了火场的能见度。不同浓度的F-500溶液具有不同的灭火效果,综合考虑经济性和有效性因素,3％浓度的F-500溶液是厨房低压细水雾灭火系统的最佳灭火介质。     

Comparison of fatty acid profile in the chicken meat after feeding with narasin,nicarbazin and salinomycin sodium and phyto-additive substances

The purpose of this study was an experimental investigation and a statistical evaluation of the influence of various additives in feed mixtures of broiler chickens on fatty acids content and their ratio in breast and thigh muscles. First feed additive consisted of narasin, nicarbasin and salinomycin sodium, and other five additives were of phytogenic origin. In vivo experiment was realized on the poultry experimental station with deep litter breeding system. A total of 300 one-day-old hybrid chickens Cobb 500 divided into six groups were used for the experiment. The experimental period was divided into four phases, i.e. Starter, Grower 1, Grower 2 and Final, according to the application of commercial feed mixture of soy cereal type. Additive substances used in feed mixtures were different for each group. Basic feed mixtures were equal for all groups. Fatty acid profile of breast and thigh muscles was measured by the method of FT IR Nicolet 6700. Investigated additive substances in the feed mixtures did not have statistically significant effect on fatty acid content and omega-6/omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) ratio in breast and thigh muscles. Strong statistically significant relation between omega-6 PUFAs and total PUFAs were proved by experiment. A relation between omega-3 PUFAs and total PUFAs was found only in the group with Biocitro additive.     

Suppressive effect of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls transfer from feed to eggs of laying hens by activated carbon as feed additive

In this study, we investigated the suppressive effect of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs) transfer from the feed to the eggs of laying hens by using activated carbon as a feed additive. Four groups of six hens (White Leghorn egg-layers; age, 11 weeks) were housed as two control groups and two exposure groups for a period of 20 weeks. Two control groups were fed with either the basal feed “Control” or basal feed additing activated carbon “Control + C”. Another two exposure groups were fed with feed contaminated (about 6 ng TEQ kg⁻¹ feed) by standard solutions of PCDDs/PCDFs and DL-PCBs “Exposure” alone and contaminated feed adding activated carbon “Exposure + C”. There was no significant effect on each groups for the growth rate, biochemical blood components, and egg production: these were around the standard levels for poultry in general. Moreover the results in this study showed the availability of activated carbon as a feed additive owing to the reduction in the risk of food pollution by PCDDs/PCDFs and DL-PCBs. The concentration in the eggs of the Exposure group gradually increased following the start of egg-laying but reached a steady state after about 1 month. In contrast, the concentration for the Exposure + C group was stationary and below the maximum EU level (6 pg TEQ g⁻¹ fat). In comparison to the Exposure group, the Exposure + C group showed a significant decline in the percentage of bioaccumulation into the egg. This reduction due to activated carbon was also observed in the muscle and abdominal fat. The reductions were compound- and congener-dependent for DL-PCBs as follows: PCDDs/PCDFs, non-ortho-PCBs, and mono-ortho-PCBs were more than 90%, 80%, and 50%, respectively, irrespective of the type of tissues. Fat soluble vitamin concentrations in the eggs of the Exposure + C group showed lower trends than the Exposure group. The γ-tocopherol and α-tocopherol concentrations in eggs of Exposure + C group showed a significant reduction of about 40%. However, the addition of activated carbon into animal feed could obviate the remote potential for accidents causing unintentional food pollution with PCDDs/PCDFs and DL-PCBs.     

通风条件对城市污水厂污泥好氧堆肥过程的影响

本文选择堆肥熟料作为添加剂与城市污水厂污泥混合进行好氧堆肥。通过对温度、耗氧速率、有机物、含水率、pH值和氨氮等指标的分析,重点研究了不同通风条件对堆肥过程的影响。实验结果表明,污泥与熟料混合后,有机物含量较低,堆肥速率较快,对通风条件的改变比较敏感。当通风量低于0.025m3/(m3.min)时,堆肥前期系统供氧不足,堆肥速率较慢,耗时长,同时堆体内变为厌氧环境,pH值变低,臭气产生量高;当通风量高于0.05m3/(m3.min)以及采用变风量通风时,在保证供氧量充足的同时,具有较长的高温期,具有臭气产生量小、堆肥速率快的优点,但采用变风量通风更加节能。     

Fe_2O_3和K_2CO_3对钙基添加剂脱硫脱硝的影响

在研究焦炭燃烧过程中使用钙基添加剂固硫的基础上,探讨了Fe_2O_3或K_2CO_3对CaO脱硫脱硝的影响。实验结果表明:添加剂的种类对焦炭燃烧过程中排放的SO_2和NO的浓度及总量均有一定的影响;加入Fe_2O_3或K_2CO_3替代部分CaO后,焦炭燃烧过程中排放的SO_2和NO比单独加入CaO时均有所下降;向焦炭中分别混合3.0%(w)CaO),1.5%(w)CaO+1.5%(w)Fe_2O_3,1.5%(w)CaO+1.5%(w)K_2CO_3的添加剂时,焦炭的SO_2排放总量分别降低了69.93%,75.98%,79.98%,NO排放总量分别降低了64.38%,79.73%,84.14%;加入Fe_2O_3或K_2CO_3后,钙基添加剂的表面性质发生了变化,同时增加了反应的活性中心数,因而复合添加剂能更有效地进行脱硫脱硝。