江汉平原湿地农业技术体系探讨

以十多年来江汉平原农业地理和涝渍地开发研究实践为基础,综合国内外湿地研究新成果,首次提出了建立中国南方湿地农业技术体系的构想。针对本地区涝渍灾害严重和生态脆弱化突出的实际,重点探讨了湿地农业关键技术和建立湿地农业开发模式的问题,湿地农业的关键技术主要有涝渍地农业小区综合整治开发规划与实施;涝渍地排水改良技术;涝渍地土壤肥力特征及改良技术;适生生物资源的发现、引进与鉴定;主要作物抗涝渍的机理及抗渍高产栽培;涝渍地作物病虫草害的发生规律及综合防治技术;涝渍地生态环境异化评价与生态恢复技术。基于江汉平原实际,今后湿地农业必须在国土整治与水资源合理分配、调控技术、选择与培育湿地特色产业和恢复优美环境与确保食物安全等方面进行重点攻关研究。     

社会脆弱性研究综述

在梳理社会脆弱性概念和分析框架的基础上,从气候变化、自然灾害、城市化、旅游发展、健康、环境污染及公共安全等扰动视角出发,对其影响下的社会脆弱性研究内容进行梳理总结,并提出未来社会脆弱性研究的关键问题.社会脆弱性研究的关注度不断上升,但社会脆弱性的概念和分析框架尚无统一定论;研究内容多关注气候变化和自然灾害等自然因素扰动...     

Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections

Expert knowledge is used in the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSMs) for management and conservation decisions. However, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on 1 method for elicitation, the analytic hierarchy process, we generated expert-based HSMs for 4 felid species: 2 forest specialists (ocelot [Leopardus pardalis] and margay [Leopardus wiedii]) and 2 habitat generalist species (Pampas cat [Leopardus colocola] and puma [Puma concolor]). Using these HSMs, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and expert attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses and iterative feedback improved model performance. We ran 160 HSMs and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve] >0.7) than those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased as participant years of experience in the study area increased, but only for the understudied generalist species, Pampas cat (β = 0.024 [SE 0.007]). No other participant attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, and aggregating judgments across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgments increased as group size increased but leveled off after 5 experts for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases as habitat specialization increases. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modeling of understudied and generalist species.     

A framework of enabler’s relationship for implementation of green manufacturing in Indian context

This study aims to recognize and select the appropriate strategy for implementing green manufacturing (GM) in Indian manufacturing industry by developing an instrument which could measure the progress of an organization towards the GM philosophy. This study identifies and analyses the key enablers behind the successful achievement of environmental sustainability in Indian manufacturing industry. Based on extensive literature review and discussions with experts, the critical success factors (CSFs) of GM have been identified. After examining the internal consistency of enablers, weightage is identified for finalizing the priority by analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The pairwise comparison method of AHP identified that top management commitment, green procurement practices and societal concern for protection of natural environment art the most important enablers, and competitiveness and availability of clean technology have comparatively less importance for the studied manufacturing industries. The purpose of this paper is to rank the enablers on identified weightage and develop the framework for offering the useful insights and guides about how industries should link CSFs of GM to improve the environmental and operational performance.     

CVM在中国资源环境价值评估中的应用

条件价值评估法（CVM）是获取资源环境等公共物品或服务全部价值的有效方法.我国引入CVM时间较短,仍处于应用相关理论、模仿各种评估方法的阶段,在问卷设计、情景描述、价值引导技术选择、模型应用及可靠性和有效性论证等方面缺少科学指导.本文从理论、方法及实践视角对CVM进行了系统梳理和总结,尤其补充了考虑受访者不确定性偏好的随机价值理论及价值引导技术选择问题.未来研究中,我国应加强CVM理论和方法体系的改进、进行多地区大规模调查、开展不同价值引导技术的比较研究、重视不确定性偏差的影响及结果的可靠性和有效性验证.     

Application of game theory for a groundwater conflict in Mexico

Exploitation of scarce water resources, particularly in areas of high demand, inevitably produces conflict among disparate stakeholders, each of whom may have their own set of priorities. In order to arrive at a socially acceptable compromise, the decision-makers should seek an optimal trade-off between conflicting objectives that reflect the priorities of the various stakeholders. In this study, game theory was applied to a multiobjective conflict problem for the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District, located in the state of Guanajuato in Mexico, where economic benefits from agricultural production should be balanced with associated negative environmental impacts. The short period of rainfall in this area, combined with high groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells, has produced severe aquifer overdraft. In addition, current agricultural practices of applying high loads of fertilizers and pesticides have contaminated regions of the aquifer. The net economic benefit to this agricultural region in the short-term lies with increasing crop yields, which requires large pumping extractions for irrigation as well as high chemical loading. In the longer term, this can produce economic loss due to higher pumping costs (i.e., higher lift requirements), or even loss of the aquifer as a viable source of water. Negative environmental impacts include continued diminishment of groundwater quality, and declining groundwater levels in the basin, which can damage surface water systems that support environmental habitats. The two primary stakeholders or players, the farmers in the irrigation district and the community at large, must find an optimal balance between positive economic benefits and negative environmental impacts. In this paper, game theory was applied to find the optimal solution between the two conflicting objectives among 12 alternative groundwater extraction scenarios. Different attributes were used to quantify the benefits and costs of the two objectives, and, following generation of the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve, four conflict resolution methods were then applied.     

高氯酸盐分析方法研究进展

高氯酸盐是一种甲状腺毒素,它会干扰碘的吸收,阻碍甲状腺的产生,影响胎儿、儿童脑部的发育,甚至造成脑部的损伤。随着检测技术的发展,其在世界范围内的水体中陆续检出,牛奶、瓶装饮料、桶装水、土壤、植物中检出高氯酸盐也随后出现。文章参考大量文献,对高氯酸盐监测分析方法进行了详细论述。     

基于SWOT法和层次分析法的海洋文化产业发展战略研究——以河北秦皇岛为例

针对海洋文化产业发展战略研究中缺乏定量分析的不足,将SWOT分析法和层次分析法相结合,通过量化各影响因素的权重,得出薄弱的海洋文化产业综合竞争力和海洋文化人才队伍建设是制约秦皇岛海洋文化产业发展的关键因素.论证了秦皇岛海洋文化产业应充分利用资源禀赋丰富的优势,抓住国家战略政策机遇,采取开拓型战略,积极应对各种劣势和威胁,走“以海洋文化产业资源为依托,以海洋旅游产业为主导”的核心产业带动发展模式.     

大气NOx测量准确性问题分析

采用美国热电公司的NO-N02-NOx分析仪(Model 42i TL)和NOy分析仪(Model 42i NOy),在2011年1月-10月期间,对北京城市大气中的NO、NOx和NOy进行了连续在线测量.两台仪器对NO的测量结果具有较高的一致性(r＞0.998,p＜0.01),说明两台仪器测量精度基本一致.将NOy分析仪(Model 42i NOy)采样口处安装和不安装颗粒物过滤膜两种条件下测量的NOy结果与NO-NO2-NOx分析仪所测的NOx结果分别进行了相关性分析([NOy] =0.989x[NOx],R2 =0.993;[NOy] =1.134 ×[NOx],R2=0.959),得出以下两个结论:①以颗粒态硝酸盐为代表的颗粒物是造成NOx与NOy偏差的主要原因,其所占比例在10％左右;②目前Model 42i-TL所测NOx的浓度水平较真实值偏高,其测量值更接近气态NOy的浓度水平.为估算NO2测值被高估的程度(以2011年8月6日-15日观测数据为例),用扣除部分气态NOz物种(HONO、HNO3、PAN、PPN)的修正方法,推论出在夏季N02被高估约7％(R2=0.968).