Model calculating annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＡｎａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｅｄｉｓｐｅｒｓｉｏｎｆｉｅｌｄｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔｗａｓｄｏｎｅｏｎｔｈｅｃｏａｓｔａｌｓｉｔｅｏｆｎｕｃｌｅａｒｐｏｗｅｒｐｌａｎｔ (ＮＰＰ)ｉｎｔｈｅｅａｓｔｐａｒｔｏｆＣｈｉｎａｄｕｒｉｎｇ 1995— 1996 Ｔｈｅｃｏｎｔｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｉｓｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔｉｎｃｌｕｄｅｓ:ｈｏｕｒｌｙｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｏｆｗｉｎｄａｎｄｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅｏｎｔｈｅｔｏｗｅｒｏｆ10 0ｍ ;Ｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｕｒｆａｃｅｗｉｎｄａｎｄｓｅｅａｎｄｌ…     

Climatic Controls on Watershed Reference Evapotranspiration Varied during 1961–2012 in Southern China

Reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is an important hydrometeorological term widely used in understanding and projecting the hydrological effects of future climate and land use change. We conducted a case study in the Qinhuai River Basin that is dominated by a humid subtropical climate and mixed land uses in southern China. Long‐term (1961–2012) meteorological data were used to estimate ET_o by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith model. The individual contribution from each meteorological variable to the trend of ET_o was quantified. We found basin‐wide annual ET_o decreased significantly (p < 0.05) by 3.82 mm/yr during 1961–1987, due to decreased wind speed, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and increased relative humidity (RH). However, due to the increased VPD and decreased RH, the ET_o increased significantly (p < 0.05) in spring, autumn, and annually at a rate of 2.55, 0.56, and 3.16 mm/yr during 1988–2012, respectively. The aerodynamic term was a dominant factor controlling ET_o variation in both two periods. We concluded the key climatic controls on ET_o have shifted as a result of global climate change during 1961–2012. The atmospheric demand, instead of air temperature alone, was a major control on ET_o. Models for accurately predicting ET_o and hydrological change under a changing climate must include VPD in the study region. The shifts of climatic control on the hydrological cycles should be considered in future water resource management in humid regions.     

Streamflow Forecasting Using Singular Value Decomposition and Support Vector Machine for the Upper Rio Grande River Basin

The current study improves streamflow forecast lead‐time by coupling climate information in a data‐driven modeling framework. The spatial–temporal correlation between streamflow and oceanic–atmospheric variability represented by sea surface temperature (SST), 500‐mbar geopotential height (Z₅₀₀), 500‐mbar specific humidity (SH₅₀₀), and 500‐mbar east–west wind (U₅₀₀) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean is obtained through singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD significant regions are weighted using a nonparametric method and utilized as input in a support vector machine (SVM) framework. The Upper Rio Grande River Basin (URGRB) is selected to test the applicability of the proposed model for the period of 1965–2014. The April–August streamflow volume is forecasted using previous year climate variability, creating a lagged relationship of 1–13 months. SVD results showed the streamflow variability was better explained by SST and U₅₀₀ as compared to Z₅₀₀ and SH₅₀₀. The SVM model showed satisfactory forecasting ability with best results achieved using a one‐month lead to forecast the following four‐month period. Overall, the SVM results showed excellent predictive ability with average correlation coefficient of 0.89 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.79. This study contributes toward identifying new SVD significant regions and improving streamflow forecast lead‐time of the URGRB.     

降水量与城市大气环境关系——以113个环保重点城市为例

为研究降水量与大气污染物之间的关系,依据2017年全国113个环保重点城市大气质量数据,得出城市聚类空间分布规律及两者之间线性拟合方程。基于南北降水量分布特性与城市空气污染指数,采用模糊聚类法对具有不同亲疏程度的城市进行类别划分,运用Spearman相关性与拟合方程对大气污染特征值与降水量进行分析。结果表明：随着聚类种数增多,城市聚集在空间分布上由“环环相套”发展为“依流域分布”,降水量与大气污染物浓度呈现负向关联性,晋冀鲁豫陕省份污染最严重。采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验法,得出NO₂、O₃、PM_2.5总体分布符合正态分布,SO₂、PM₁₀、CO既不符合正态分布,也不符合均匀、指数分布,它们与降水量的相关系数为：-0.316、-0.238、-0.332、-0.617、-0.574、-0.695;线性拟合方程系数处于 [-0.031, -0.008] 之间,降水量与大气污染物浓度之间负相关性明显。研究结果有助于了解和认识降水量对城市大气环境变化的影响。     

公众态度和机构监督对大气污染的影响

虽然以往对于环境库兹涅兹曲线（EKC）的研究中考虑了正式制度因素如政府机构监督,但是较少考虑非正式制度因素.本文重点检验两种制度情境的影响,微观层面的环境态度形成的非正式制度以及宏观层面的环保机构监督形成的正式制度对大气污染排放量的影响.基于CGSS2010-2013和2015年的数据库,从中提取出体现环境态度的问题,将其赋值指标化后,作为制度情境纳入环境方程.经过公开数据的收集,得到我国26个省份2010-2014年5年的面板数据.通过固定效应和随机效应模型,发现机构监督与人均GDP的交互项对氮氧化物、烟（粉）尘、二氧化硫排放都有影响,但是公众态度与人均GDP的交互项只对烟（粉）尘排放有影响,从而对不同制度情境下的环境库兹涅兹曲线进行了探索.     

大气腐蚀数据降维最优维度研究

目的确定金属大气腐蚀数据降维的最优维度。方法分别采用PCA、MDS、Isomap和LLE四种方法对大气腐蚀数据进行降维处理,并采用集成学习算法建立预测模型。针对不同的降维方法和近邻点个数计算,使用MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error,相对百分误差绝对值的平均值)对预测结果进行评价,将最佳预测速率所对应的维度作为最优维度。结果不同的降维方法和近邻参数作用下,最优维度从2维到7维不等。流形学习方法对大气腐蚀数据进行降维的MAPE均小于线性降维方法。结论适合每种降维方法的最优维度可能是不同的,通过对MAPE进行对比,得到大气腐蚀数据在各种降维方法的最优维度。     

多因素综合高原高寒气候环境模拟加速试验箱研制

目的研制一种多因素综合高原高寒气候环境模拟加速试验箱,主要用于高原地区使用的工艺、材料和零部件的快速筛选和环境适应性评价。方法通过高原气候特征分析、工艺验证和文献分析,进行设计、制造、试验谱设计和试验验证等工作。结果解决了光照和高低温低气压环境条件的同时施加问题,形成同时施加光照、气压、温度、湿度和风速五因素的高原高寒气候环境模拟加速试验箱。设计了一套高原高寒气候环境模拟加速试验谱,实现了高原高寒气候环境的多因素综合模拟和加速。结论试验箱各项技术指标达到设计要求。塑料样品的拉伸强度和冲击韧性性能、有机涂层的色差和光泽变化指标,与拉萨站试验结果进行对比,具有良好相关性和加速性。本试验箱可用于高原地区使用的工艺、材料和零部件的快速筛选和环境适应性快速评价。     

两种典型大气环境下7A85铝合金的腐蚀行为研究

目的研究湿热海洋、干热沙漠两种典型大气环境对7A85铝合金腐蚀行为的影响。方法在万宁、敦煌两种典型环境中开展7A85铝合金大气暴露试验,利用金相显微镜分析7A85铝合金在我国两种典型大气环境中的腐蚀特征,定期测试该材料的拉伸强度和腐蚀深度。结果暴露3 a,7A85铝合金湿热海洋、干热沙漠两种典型大气环境中的最大腐蚀深度分别为254、90μm,抗拉强度分别下降了18%和5%,断后伸长率分别下降了72%和22%。结论 7A85铝合金暴露于相对湿度较低的干热沙漠环境,表面形成的腐蚀产物膜会阻止腐蚀的进一步发生;暴露于湿热海洋大气环境,随暴露时间的延长,7A85铝合金腐蚀逐渐加深。     

重轨钢腐蚀的研究进展

钢轨的腐蚀关乎铁路运营效益和运输系统的安全等重大问题,重轨钢的耐腐蚀性同强度、硬度、耐磨性一样重要,应高度重视对重轨钢耐腐蚀性能的研究。介绍了国内外重轨钢的研究,主要概述在重轨钢加入Cr、Nb、Cu、Si、Mn、Ti、Al、Cr或Ni等不同合金元素,对重轨钢耐腐蚀性能的影响。介绍不同组织(珠光体、贝氏体、马氏体、奥氏体)的重轨钢,以及这些组织对重轨钢耐腐蚀性能的影响,并说明了不同的热处理或加工工艺对重轨钢耐腐蚀性能好坏的影响。最后结合重轨钢腐蚀机理、锈层形成机理和电化学过程以及影响金属大气环境腐蚀的主要因素,提出了几点提高重轨钢耐腐蚀性的研究方向。     

变电站大气环境腐蚀参数自动检测仪研制及应用

目的通过自主研发的大气环境腐蚀参数自动检测仪,监测并积累变电站大气腐蚀数据,判断大气腐蚀性,为变电站选择腐蚀与防护手段,提供数据支持和依据。方法依据变电站大气腐蚀研究的最新理论成果,参考最新国家标准,将影响变电站腐蚀因素的各参数整合,选择国内外最先进的传感器,根据实际工况要求,研制了一台基于变电站环境的大气腐蚀参数检测仪。结果仪器的各项技术指标均达到设计要求,能够满足现场要求,可以根据变电站设备材质要求,定制腐蚀传感器。结论通过在国家大气腐蚀网站(沈阳站)、浙江电力公司所属变电站的测试,研制的大气环境腐蚀参数自动检测仪能够实时采集影响腐蚀的各影响因子的参数值,满足未来腐蚀监测仪器、装备多参数、智能化的要求。