APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

扎龙湿地的生态环境评价及防治对策

介绍了扎龙湿地的生态状况 ,并运用模糊数学对其生态状况给予评价 ,为做好扎龙湿地的生态保护工作 ,提出了相应的对策     

复杂岩溶矿床延深水平涌水量的预测

随着岩溶矿床的延深开采,矿坑涌水量的计算成为防治水害首先要解决的难题。文章创造性地采用国外广泛采用的岩溶水衰减动态分析法,选择了我国南方复杂岩溶含水层中有代表性的重庆市红岩煤矿,将丛林采区茅口组岩溶水动力单元和该单元南大巷(标高+370 m)的茅口灰岩岩溶含水层的主要排水点-1号突水点作为研究对象,建立了该单元岩溶含水层的计算模型-衰减动态(流量和水位)方程,求出了岩溶水动力单元水均衡、地下水储量计算和矿坑涌水量预测的水文地质参数:a、T、K、S、μ、Ie,建立了该单元岩溶裂隙-管道水的水均衡方程, 根据连续观察一个水文年以上的丰富地下水动态资料,预测了红岩煤矿370 m标高以下的延伸开采水平(295- 370 m)矿坑涌水量。     

典型装备温度响应测量及平衡时间研究

目的 研究武器装备在温度环境试验过程中温度的测量方法和温度平衡稳定的时间。方法 利用直接测量方法对3种典型装备进行温度响应时间测量和分析,找出不同类型装备的传热规律,明确其温度环境试验的作用机理,确定装备的温度平衡时间。结果 通过多项试验测试的数据分析了武器装备温度试验应力的选取,在低温和高温工作试验时,整体温度平衡所需时间应适当延长8～10h,高温贮存时间偏短,应适当延长4～6h。结论 在武器装备温度环境试验中,应根据自身性能特点获得装备的真实温度相应特性,在条件允许的情况下,尽可能地敞开武器装备的密闭空间,加快热交换,以缩短达到温度平衡的时间。对于关键及敏感部件,应实时进行温度响应测量,保证试验量级选取的科学合理,为装备环境分析及试验方案的制定提供参考依据。     

Antecedents and consequences of satisfaction with work–family balance: A moderating role of perceived insider status

This study developed a moderated mediation model to investigate how family‐supportive paid leave and supervision affect employees' satisfaction with work–family balance and in turn their affective organizational commitment and supervisor‐directed organizational citizenship behavior depending on their perceived insider status in the organization. Our analysis of data collected from 118 employee–supervisor dyads in Korean organizations revealed that satisfaction with work–family balance mediated the linkages from family‐supportive supervision to affective organizational commitment and supervisor‐directed organizational citizenship behavior, and the linkage from family‐supportive paid leave to affective organizational commitment. Results further showed that the entire mediational process for family‐supportive supervision was more pronounced for those who perceived themselves to be an insider of their organizations, while the same pattern was not found for the meditational process related to family‐supportive paid leave. Our findings provide theoretical implications for work–family balance research and offer practical suggestions to make employees satisfied with work–family balance.     

中国石油资源的资产负债表编制初探

我国境内石油行业总体呈现原油开采量上升的态势,为之付出的经济和生态成本也越来越大。开展我国境内石油资源资产负债表的编制工作对于摸清我国石油资源的家底、评估我国石油资源开采的经济—资源—环境综合成本、探讨我国石油开采战略的合理性具有重要的意义。本文首先探讨了石油资源资产负债表的编制方法和框架,构建了集"生态系统服务"、"环境污染"和"资源消耗"三位于一体的"生态负债"账户。其次,收集并整理了重要的污染物处理成本和生态系统服务的价值评估成果,构建了价值化因子数据表。最后,基于2012年数据尝试编制了目前我国的第一份石油资源资产负债表。结果显示,(1)2012年末,我国石油资源的资产总额为1.47×109万元,负债总额为9.03×107万元,所有者权益为1.38×109万元;(2)石油资源资产总额占到当年政府资产总额的14.43%,占政府资源性资产比重达31.12%;(3)石油行业的资产负债率为6.15%,负债权益比达到了6.56%;(4)"生态系统服务"构成了负债的最大比重,达到了98.16%。总的来说,我国石油开采行业整体处于"高资产、高负债、强生态压力和弱可持续性"的状态。从这份资产负债表我们可以看出,我国境内石油开采的生态成本不容忽视。随着资源的不断开发,石油开采的边际生态成本只会越来越大,因此,能指向经济和生态两方面的综合成本应该取代账面成本成为政府进行石油资源开发的决策依据之一。此外,要落实石油资源资产负债表对于生态保护的实际指导意义,我们建议应该将石油资源开采的资产负债率、负债权益比等指标纳入官员的绩效考核体系。     

Analysis of interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces: based on constructed MRIO Model

The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China’s provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.     

京津冀地区环境资产负债表编制研究

环境容量资产的核算是自然资源资产负债表编制中的主要组成部分。本文基于环境容量提出京津冀地区环境资产负债表编制方法,阐明该地区环境资产负债表的编制内容、核算范围以及编制路径,对2013年该地区及13个城市的环境容量资产进行核算,并编制了实物量资产负债表。在此基础上,提出了京津冀地区降低环境资产负债的政策建议,指出我国环境资产负债核算工作逐步规范化、制度化的方向。结果表明,京津冀地区大气及水环境容量均处于严重负债状态,其中,主要大气污染物SO2、NOx和PM2.5环境容量资产负债率分别为-235%、-263%和-316%,主要水污染物COD和NH3-N环境容量资产负债率分别为-414%和-850%。本文研究成果可为京津冀地区资源环境与经济发展决策提供科学基础,同时也可为其他地区开展环境资产核算研究提供参考。     

广州城市绿地系统碳的贮存、分布及其在碳氧平衡中的作用

在研究广州城市绿地植物生物量和净第一性生产量的基础上,通过对城市绿地碳的贮存、分布和固碳放氧能力的估算,探讨城市绿地对城市碳氧平衡的作用。结果表明,城市绿地植物生物量和净生产量分别为287150t和1058122t/a;植物碳贮量和净生产量中的碳量分别为1328649t和462624t/a;绿地光合作用释放的氧量为2242788t/a。植物的光合作用固碳和放氧量分别相当于人口呼吸释放碳和消耗氧量的1.7和1.9倍,但远小于化学燃料燃烧放出的碳和消耗的氧量。如果广州城市绿地能得到适当的保护和改良,其对碳氧平衡的作用将大大提高。     

持久性有机污染物环境多介质空间分异模型研究进展

环境多介质空间分异模型能够对持久性有机污染物(POPs)在环境多个介质中空间尺度上的迁移转化和分配过程进行准确、细致和接近真实的描述,是进行POPs的环境多介质归趋模拟和环境风险评价的重要工具.将环境多介质空间分异模型分为环境多介质质量平衡空间区划模型和大气化学传输模型,对目前几种常用的环境多介质空间分异模型GLOBO...