Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

非饱和土壤渗透系数空间不确定性对溶质运移的影响

包气带渗透系数的不确定性是影响非饱和带溶质运移的主要因素。应用贝叶斯方法对非饱和土壤渗透系数进行前处理,使用Monte-Carlo方法模拟其空间不确定性,并通过HYDRUS-1D模型对溶质运移进行数值模拟,研究包气带渗透系数的空间不确定性对溶质运移的影响。结果表明,由于包气带渗透性的不确定性使得溶质浓度分布呈现明显的不确定性,包气带内不同点的浓度值相差很大。与忽略包气带土性参数空间不确定性的模拟结果相对比,考虑包气带渗透系数不确定性的模拟结果与实际情况更加接近,更具合理性和科学性。同时,根据模拟结果,对实际工作中进行地下水数值模拟时溶质初始浓度输入值的确定提出相应建议。     

一体化A/O生物膜反应器低温硝化研究

采用自行设计制作的新型一体化A/O生物膜反应器,研究了温度、进水碱度对反应器硝化性能的影响.结果表明,当反应器温度控制在20,15和10℃时,硝化率分别为98%,90%和60%.此时进水COD和TN浓度分别为100～150 mg/L和65～78 mg/L.总氮去除率分别为50%,30%和20%.当反应器温度控制在8℃,进水中不加有机碳源,随着进水碱度的增加,硝化率从72%提高到95%,在低温下取得了良好的硝化效果.当进水碱度为280 mg/L时,反应器各区出现亚硝酸盐积累,亚硝化率达到80%.详细分析了形成亚硝酸盐积累的原因.     

兽药抗生素对生态环境的混合毒性研究进展

抗生素是环境中普遍存在的污染物,畜牧水产养殖是其主要来源之一.环境中可能同时存在多种抗生素残留,因此单一药物的毒性评价难以反映抗生素对生态环境的影响,应探究其混合物的毒性效应.本文在总结大量文献的基础上,介绍了兽用抗生素的残留现状,总结了兽用抗生素对生态环境的混合毒性研究进展,讨论了兽用抗生素残留对土壤生物和水生生物的...     

LB复合膜选择性检测水中痕量镉离子的方法研究

开发了一种利用LB复合膜选择性地检测水中痕量镉离子的技术方法,研究了最佳LB复合膜检测器的制作条件.用表面活性剂十二烷基-(2-噻唑偶氮)间苯二酚(DTAR)作显色剂,对乙烯基硬脂酸盐(PVS)、十八烷基异丁烯酸盐(PMOA)、乙烯基-N-氨基甲酸十八烷基酯(PVOC)和顺丁烯二酸酐-1-十八烯(PMO)4种聚合物进行了强度实验,得出稳定的检测器结构,即偶数层DTAR上附着单层PVOC的LB复合膜.经过灵敏度实验,制作出最佳LB复合膜检测器DTAR6-PVOC1,在pH为7.5,温度40℃且搅拌的反应条件下,该检测器可以在10 min之内检出10-7mol/L镉,并可目视定性及半定量检测出水中痕量镉离子.水中可能共存的离子中只有CU2+和Zn2+会干扰镉离子的检测,需要抑制.      

防空导弹的综合环境可靠性试验剖面研究

为有效地进行防空导弹综合环境可靠性试验,根据试验剖面的模拟真实性、应力适当性和试验可操作性的要求,确定以防空导弹随战车值勤和空中飞行为主要试验阶段。主要研究了地面和空中2种试验环境中温度应力、湿度、振动应力和电应力等环境参数的确定,并给出了相应的原则或计算公式。最后讨论了如何确定试验时间的问题,并绘出了综合环境可靠性试验剖面图。     

卫星光学反射膜光谱反射率空间综合环境退化研究

对玻璃基底和金属基底的铝反射膜在紫外、低能电子、低能质子的综合环境作用下的光谱反射率退化进行了实验研究。试验结果表明两种铝反射膜的光谱反射率均发生了退化,且光谱反射率的退化主要集中在可见光波段,在近红外波段退化很小;玻璃基底铝反射膜退化在420 nm左右出现峰值点,2种金属基底铝反射膜的退化的峰值点在450 nm左右。由于电荷沉积在玻璃中后会抑制带电粒子入射,因此玻璃基底铝反射膜的退化要小于金属基底铝反射膜。     

Temperature Effect on Migration of Zn and Cd Through Natural Clay

To investigate the effect of temperature on effective diffusion coefficients and retardation factors for Zn and Cd, combined diffusion and sequential extraction analyses were conducted at 15 ^˚C and 55 ^˚C. The effective diffusion coefficients of the metals increased up to ten times according to the increased temperature. On the other hand, the effect of temperature on the retardation factor depended on the retention mechanisms of the metals. The distribution coefficient for Zn, which was mainly partitioned in the carbonate phase, increased up to two times with the increase in temperature. On the other hand, the distribution coefficient for Cd, which was mainly partitioned in the exchangeable phase, was hardly affected by the temperature change. Results of combined diffusion and sequential extraction analysis showed that the effect of temperature on the heavy metals’ (Zn and Cd) migration through the compacted natural clay was influenced by the combined effects of the diffusion coefficient and the retardation factor. Additionally, we could also observe the change in retention mechanism for the metals with the change in pore water concentration.     

Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

ASBBR-二级SBBR-化学除磷组合工艺处理榨菜腌制废水

针对榨菜腌制废水高盐高氮磷高有机物浓度的特征,提出"厌氧序批式生物膜反应器(ASBBR)-二级序批式生物膜反应器(SBBR)-化学除磷"组合处理工艺,在前期对组合工艺中单元工艺的关键工况参数研究的基础上,考察组合工艺的处理效能。实验结果表明,采用该组合工艺,可使进水COD、NH4+-N、TN及PO43--P分别为10 000、345、550和38.5mg/L的榨菜腌制废水,处理出水COD、NH4+-N、TN及PO43--P分别达到93.6、12.3、18和0.1 mg/L,去除率分别为99.1%、96.4%、96.7%和99.9%,出水达到污水综合排放一级标准。