An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

我国危险化学品安全监管网络整合研究

分析我国危险化学品安全监管网络的特征,指出安全监管网络中存在的法律法规、监管部门信息共享、合作协调机制等方面存在的突出问题,提出了我国危险化学品安全监管网络整合的主要对策,包括建立监管部门之间的常态合作协调机制、无缝隙化城市安全监管平台以及跨区域合作监管机制。危险化学品安全监管网络整合,对提高我国危险化学品监管水平具有重要意义。     

中美职业安全健康法对比

通过对中美职业安全健康立法目的和背景的考察,对比分析职业安全健康法涉及的6项具体内容,即体例结构、适用范围、监管方式、监管体制、教育与培训、法律责任,并指出国情不同是造成中美职业安全健康法立法巨大差异的原因之一。经对比分析,可得出几点结论:从中国国情出发,走逐步完善的职业安全健康立法路径,建立独立的职业安全健康法律体系,是我国安全生产的治本之策;对从业人员的职业安全健康保护具有首要性,须明晰保护劳动者的上层法律要求,《安全生产法》并不能代替《职业安全健康法》;完善中国职业安全健康法律制度须走一体化整合的道路。     

精密度--偏性分析质控试验数据处理系统

结合环境监测实验实质量控制数据处理的实际要求,用计算机高级语言,设计开发成功了《精密度－偏性分析质控试验数据处理系统》,该系统具有数据输入,查询,修改,统计分析和打印报告等功能,在实际应用中,取得良好效果。     

Spatial modelling of the probability of obtaining a detectable concentration of ammonia in Moreton Bay, Australia

Ammonia is an important water quality variable, which in excess, can be detrimental to waterways and their ecosystems. In the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in South-east Queensland ammonia is monitored monthly, however, often more than 50% of the ammonia observations in Moreton Bay are below detection limit, making it difficult to draw useful inferences. In this paper a clipped Gaussian random field is used to spatially model and map the probability of detectable concentration of ammonia. The methodology is applied to the Moreton Bay samples collected in February 2005. The results suggest that for this month the oceanic impacted areas have higher probability of detectable ammonia concentration than the areas closer to the main sources of anthropogenic inputs.     

Using Multi-Scale Sampling and Spatial Cross-Correlation to Investigate Patterns of Plant Species Richness

Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, I _YZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m²) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m² subplots within each of the 1000 m² plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure.     

浅淡监测数据的共享与社会效应

结合工作实际对如何有效利用监测数据进行了探讨 ,并引申出监测数据的 4种效应 ,即信息效应、价值效应、广告效应和政治效应。     

Coupling upland watershed and downstream waterbody hydrodynamic and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) for better water resources management in complex river basins

Effective water resources management programs have always incorporated detailed analyses of hydrological and water quality processes in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. We have integrated two powerful hydrological and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) to simulate the combined processes of water quantity and quality both in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. Whereas the SWAT model outputs water quality variables in its entirety, the CE-QUAL-W2 model requires inputs in various pools of organic matter contents. An intermediate program was developed to extract outputs from SWAT at required subbasin and reach outlets and converts them into acceptable CE-QUAL-W2 inputs. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was later calibrated for various hydrodynamic and water quality simulations in the Cedar Creek Reservoir, TX, USA. The results indicate that the two models are compatible and can be used to assess and manage water resources in complex watersheds comprised of upland watershed and downstream waterbodies.     

浅论环境指标的相关性分析在监测数据审核中的应用

数据审核是环境监测质量保证的重要环节之一,数据审核的方法有许多种,文章从监测数据中各环境指标之间的相关性分析出发,对水、气、声环境要素中的各环境指标间的相关性进行总结,并将其应用于数据合理性的审核,具有借鉴意义.