基于数据分解的AQI的CEEMD-Elman神经网络预测研究

针对Elman神经网络在预测空气质量指数（AQI）时易受到数据非平稳性的影响导致预测趋势良好但准确度较低的问题,提出以互补集合经验模态分解（Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,CEEMD）为基础的CEEMD-Elman模型.应用CEEMD对AQI序列分解成不同时间尺度上的本征模态函数分量和剩余分量,进而首次将对非平稳的AQI序列的预测研究转化为对多个平稳的本征模态函数分量的研究.分别与Elman单一模型、EMD-Elman模型、BP单一模型及CEEMD-BP模型进行实验对比.结果表明：应用该方法建立的模型的均方误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别为4.80、0.71、1.84%,均小于其他模型结果;对应空气质量等级预报正确天数的频率为94.12%.该模型能有效的降低非平稳性对实验预测结果的影响,实现对空气质量等级的准确预报;该研究为进一步预测AQI的走向提供了有效依据,也为政府决策和管理部门制定空气污染控制提供了更充分的参考.     

Facile synthesis of Ag-modified manganese oxide for effective catalytic ozone decomposition

O₃ decomposition catalysts with excellent performance still need to be developed. In this study, Ag-modified manganese oxides (AgMnO_x) were synthesized by a simple co-precipitation method. The effect of calcination temperature on the activity of MnO_x and AgMnO_x catalysts was investigated. The effect of the amount of Ag addition on the activity and structure of the catalysts was further studied by activity testing and characterization by a variety of techniques. The activity of 8%AgMnO_x for ozone decomposition was significantly enhanced due to the formation of the Ag_1.8Mn₈O₁₆ structure, indicating that this phase has excellent performance for ozone decomposition. The weight content of Ag_1.8Mn₈O₁₆ in the 8%AgMnO_x catalyst was only about 33.76%, which further indicates the excellent performance of the Ag_1.8Mn₈O₁₆ phase for ozone decomposition. The H₂ temperature programmed reduction (H₂-TPR) results indicated that the reducibility of the catalysts increased due to the formation of the Ag_1.8Mn₈O₁₆ structure. This study provides guidance for a follow-up study on Ag-modified manganese oxide catalysts for ozone decomposition.     

大型电子设备机架气流分解方法研究

目的研究分析一种分解大型电子设备机架风冷气流条件的方法。方法以温差和Nu数作为描述传热效果的参数,使用相似对流的方法,使分解夹具中模块两侧的气流传热效果等效于大型机架中模块两侧的气流传热效果。结果气流在分解后,其在分解夹具中的冷却效果等效于分解前其在大型机架中的冷却效果。结论该分解方法能够有效地进行风冷气流条件分解,可以应用于实际工程。     

三普2#地热站供热工程设计方案优化分析

通过分析地热供热的相关概念，建立了高效利用地热能源的一系列实现途径。根据工程的基础材料，从技术和经济方面对单纯地热供热方案、地热燃气调峰方案、热泵配置方案以及最终的组合方案进行了优化和调整，从而为三普2#地热井供热工程提供了优化方案，提高了该地区的地热利用率。     

Internal eutrophication: How it works and what to do about it—a review

In the 1980s and 1990s, it became increasingly clear that changes in external nutrient loads alone could not entirely explain the severe eutrophication of surface waters in the Netherlands. Nowadays, 'internal eutrophication' has become a widely accepted term in Dutch water management practice to describe the eutrophication of an ecosystem without additional external input of nutrients (N, P, K). This review surveys the principal mechanisms involved in this process. It also discusses possible remedies to combat internal eutrophication.     

EDTA直接滴定测定镍

参考磷酸在345~356℃时有强腐蚀性的特点,采有硫磷混合酸消解矿样,能使样品消解完全。本方法经加标校核证明,检测结果重现性好,准确度高。     

上海市人口分布变动的空间特征分析

空间自相关分析是一种空间统计的方法。可以揭示区域变量的空间结构形态。通过对2000-2003年期间上海市乡镇人口密度变化率的空间相关性分析，发现上海市近几年人口分布空间变动格局表现为以中心城区为中心的环状分布模式，中心城区和远郊区人口密度变化小。人口增长缓慢，而近郊区人口密度变化大，人口增长迅速。全市人口密度变化率存在着显著的空间集聚现象。四种类型的空间关联在空间分布上具有明显的规律性。研究结果表明，目前上海市人口郊区化趋势明显。高人口密度区域在不断向外扩张，人口分布与经济、交通等社会发展因素的关系日益密切。这些研究结果说明利用空间自相关统计方法能够扩展和加强对人口分布空间模式的研究．从而为经济总体布局和城市化建设提供辅助参考作用。     

Computer-assisted analysis of fetal behavioural states

A computerized system which simultaneously acquires and quantifies several ultrasonically detected fetal activities, including gross body movements, breathing movements, and eye movements, was developed in order to obtain additional quantitative data on fetal behaviour. Movements were automatically related to fetal heart rate allowing computation of their mean incidence, duration, lag time and percentage time spent moving during different heart rate patterns. The incidence of various behavioural states was also calculated. The study of 15 healthy fetuses near term revealed the existence of statistically significant differences in these parameters between low and high variability patterns of fetal heart rate suggesting a quantitative modulation of fetal movements by behavioural states.     

不同升温速率下模块装药的烤燃特性分析

目的 研究不同升温速率下模块装药烤燃特性的变化.方法 基于模块装药结构及其烤燃化学反应机理,提出基本假设,建立二维非稳态烤燃计算模型,通过数值模拟计算分析研究模块装药在不同工况下的烤燃特性.结果 在3.30、5.25、7.20 K/h的加热条件下,模块装药发生烤燃响应的着火温度分别为476.6、473.1、477.1 ...     

中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变,因此,碳排放不可避免地会出现一定幅度的增加。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法（Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method,LMD）,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995-2004年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率都呈倒“U”。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的中国碳排放量增长。