烧结烟气SCR脱硝系统的数值模拟及工程验证

对某钢厂烧结机增设的选择性催化还原（SCR）烟气脱硝系统进行了数值模拟优化及工程验证。将高温焦炉烟气喷入烧结烟气后,喷氨格栅入口平均温度提高了30 K,为催化剂层的SCR反应提供了较适宜的温度。采用分别在烟道弯头处和反应器主体入口处添加导流板的方法解决了烟气回流问题,SCR反应器第一层催化剂入口处速度最大偏转角降为8.2°,氨与NO_x摩尔比的标准偏差系数降至4.11%,SCR反应器脱硝率为82.6%,均达到技术标准要求。     

Incidence of thyroid disease following exposure to polybrominated biphenyls and polychlorinated biphenyls, Michigan, 1974-2006

Thyroid hormones, which influence body metabolism and development, could be affected by persistent organic pollutants. We sought to examine the relationship between polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and thyroid disease. We employed incidence density sampling to perform a nested case control analysis of the Michigan Long-Term PBB Cohort. Cohort members (n = 3333) were exposed to PBBs through contaminated cattle feed in 1973-1974 and to PCBs through daily life. Those with detectable serum PBB and PCB concentrations at enrollment were categorized into tertiles of PBB and PCB exposure. Case-patients were cohort members answering “Yes” to “Has a healthcare provider ever told you that you had a thyroid problem?” during follow-up interviews; control-patients were cohort members answering “No”. We used odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare odds of thyroid disease by PBB and PCB exposure and by various risk factors. Total cumulative thyroid disease incidence after 33 years was 13.9% among women and 2.6% among men. After adjusting for body mass index, we found no statistically significant differences in odds of any type of thyroid disease among women or men with elevated PBB or PCB exposure. Compared to control-patients, women with thyroid disease had increased odds of being overweight/obese (OR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.94-4.11) and developing infertility (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08-2.69), diabetes (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.04-2.51), or arthritis (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18-2.50) during follow-up. Additional research should explore potential associations between PBBs/PCBs and thyroid disease among children exposed in utero.     

HAZOP分析技术改进研究

通过HAZOP分析技术研究,提出针对性的3方面改进措施:开发HAZOP偏差专家库,并在开发的辅助分析软件中进行自动关联提示,弥补分析成员经验不足;基于专业化的计划安排与分工控制分析过程,提高分析工作效率;简化分析范围,并借助偏差库的帮助简化重复工作。对开展HAZOP分析的时间给出了具体建议。最后,以改进的技术方案为基础,针对某装置HAZOP分析过程为例,与改进前HAZOP分析过程进行了对比。     

电离层对短波测向系统的影响分析

目的研究电离层对短波测向系统的影响。方法从电离层传播介质入手,分析路径偏离效应和波干涉效应的形成机理及其对短波测向的影响。结果电离层系统倾斜引起的测向误差可借助电离层长期预测模型、短期预测算法或电离层实时探测数据对测向方位偏差进行补偿。行波扰动不可预测,只能依据行波扰动观测结果进行测向误差校正。波干涉误差可通过时间平滑进行抑制。结论提升现有短波测向系统测向性能的根本途径是为短波测向系统配备电离层探测设备,准确获取系统覆盖区内电离层状态信息,并进行传播效应补偿。     

燃烧对SF6扩散影响的示踪试验研究

根据2010年9月,在北京某试验场开展的一系列SF6示踪扩散试验,以及获取的SF6浓度空间分布数据,以高斯模式和计算机拟合为基础,计算出SF6浓度分布在水平和垂直方向的扩散标准差、地面峰值浓度等参数,分析、总结出了在典型地理(山区和平原连接处)和边界层条件下燃烧对SF6扩散的影响。通过试验及分析可知,燃油对试验区域气流产生了明显扰动,但具体原理有待于进一步分析。     

基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。     

Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.     

定性与定量评估4种重金属及2种农药混合物对费氏弧菌的毒性相互作用

重金属与农药共同暴露产生的联合毒性作用可以对实际环境产生潜在的风险。为了研究重金属与农药混合物在不同浓度比毒性相互作用(协同、拮抗与加和)及其定量评估相互作用大小,根据单个物质无观测浓度(NOEC)、5%效应浓度(EC5)、10%效应浓度(EC10)和50%效应浓度(EC50),设计3组混合物体系(即农药-农药、重金属-重金属和农药-重金属)分别按NOEC、EC5、EC10和EC50浓度比的12条混合物射线,测试单个化合物及混合物对以费氏弧菌的发光抑制急性毒性,利用浓度加和(CA)、独立作用(IA)、模型偏差比(MDR)及其观测值置信区间定性和定量评估12条混合物射线的毒性相互作用。结果表明,农药-农药二元混合物体系和农药-重金属六元混合物体系均产生明显的协同作用,其中农药-农药混合物体系中,混合物射线EE-NOEC在50%效应下协同作用大小达到30.6(MDRCA和MDRIA数值);混合物射线EE5、EE10的协同作用大小接近于混合物射线EE-NOEC,混合物射线EE50的效应大于15%时CA和IA计算的MDR值均在置信区间上限的上方,即混合物发生协同作用;农药-重金属混合物体系的4条混合物射线EE-NOEC、EE5、EE10和EE50在所有测试浓度水平的MDR值均在置信区间上限的上方,呈现出明显的协同作用;在50%效应下,混合物射线EE-NOEC、EE5、EE10和EE50的MDRCA和MDRIA值分别为4.05和4.91、6.12和7.98、3.70和4.60、2.62和2.59。重金属-重金属四元混合物体系除了EC50浓度比混合物表现出拮抗作用,其余混合物在所有测试浓度范围的MDR值均在置信区间范围内,均为加和作用。因此,混合物的毒性相互作用大小随着组分浓度比变化而发生变化。     

燃煤电厂袋式除尘器入口烟道烟气温度偏差调整

应用计算流体力学（CFD）方法对某燃煤电厂袋式除尘器入口烟道烟气流场进行了三维数值模拟研究,分析了导致除尘器入口烟道烟气温度偏差的原因,主要是由于回转式空气预热器的工作原理所致。为此,提出了减小除尘器入口烟道烟气温度偏差的方向及措施,为燃煤电厂除尘器入口烟道的改造、设计提供参考。     

农业可持续发展状态评价指标(体系)框架及其分析

通过对农业活动、农业政策与农业环境变化关系的研究,提出了反映农业可持续发展状态的指标结构以及面向农业决策的状态指标分析框架,建议采用“离差法”来评价农业系统的可持续发展状态,其评价结果可以用来判断和制定正确的农业政策;同时还论述了状态评价的具体方法、步骤及评价标准