SELECTION AND SUSTAINABILITY OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Most spatial decision support systems for natural resource planning and management are limited by their scenario-based (non-behavioral), deterministic (non-stochastic) structure. A spatial decision support system is developed that uses a multiple attribute decision-making model to explain how a property manager selects a land and water resource management system (LWRMS) based on its multiple, stochastic economic and environmental attributes. The decision support system assesses sustainable resource management at the property and watershed scales and identifies the most cost-effective policy for enhancing sustainable resource management. Economic attributes are determined with an economic model and environmental attributes are simulated with an environmental model. Input parameters for both models are generated with a geographic information system. The decision support system is used to rank five LWRMS for a sample of 20 farmers in Missouri's Goodwater Creek watershed and for two hypothetical watershed alliance groups. Results indicate that the average farmer and the two alliance groups would rank the five LWRMS in the same manner. From the viewpoint of the watershed alliance, the most preferred LWRMS for the average farmer in the watershed is sustainable.     

Contradictory findings in studies of sex ratio variation in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)

Patterns of sex ratio variation and maternal investment reported in the literature are often inconsistent. This could be due to intra- and inter-specific variation in social systems, but may also be a result of the a posteriori nature of much of this type of analysis or the testing of models which are inappropriate. Two recent papers reported directly opposed results concerning variation in offspring sex ratios in relation to maternal condition in roe deer, interpreting the results as support for the Trivers and Willard model and for the local resource competition hypothesis, respectively. In this paper, we present data on offspring sex ratios and early juvenile body weight from two long-term studies of this species to test predictions arising from these two models concerning sex biases in litter composition and maternal care. First, we observed no consistent pattern of sex differences in an index of weaning weight or body weight at 1 month old in either population, indicating a lack of sex bias in maternal care. However, in one population, higher maternal body weight was associated with higher juvenile body weight of daughters, but not of sons. Secondly, we found a negative, but not statistically significant, relationship between maternal body weight and litter sex ratio such that heavier females tended to produce more daughters and lighter females to produce more sons. These results indicate that roe females which have additional investment potential available do not invest it in sons, as predicted by the Trivers and Willard model. Our results may provide some support that roe deer are subject to local resource competition acting at the level of the individual mother; however, the fact that particular trends in sex ratio data can be explained in functional terms provides no indication that they are actually adaptive. Received: 9 December 1997 / Accepted after revision: 11 November 1998     

洞庭湖区湿地综合资源管理与复合生态系统建设

通过对洞庭湖区湿地衰退原因与特征的分析,提出合理开发湿地资源必须强化湿地整体管理,控制湿地开发规模,适度退田还湖还蓄（洪区）,调整农业布局与种植制度,走集约持续发展之路,建设复合高效湿地生态系统;进行适应洪涝灾害发生规律的避洪、耐渍型生态设计,建立适应浅水水体、湖洲和低湖渍害田的复合高效生态工程模式。     

千岛湖流域旅游开发项目的气候评价

根据千岛湖流域的气候特点,对夏季避暑度假旅游、休闲观光农业和季节性旅游项目的开发进行了气候评估,将有利于促进千岛湖流域旅游业的发展     

海南省农业能值分析

应用ＯｄｕｍＨＴ创立的能值分析理论和方法,对海南省农业进行了分析和评价,结果表明：由于自然条件得天独厚,环境资源对农业的贡献很大,环境资源能值占能值利用率的３０％,高于全国平均值（１３％）;净能值产出率为１．２７,高于日本和意大利,可以作为一种能值来源;农牧渔业产品的宏观经济价值远大于市场价值,农业生产中有相当大一部分环境资源无偿投入;环境承载指标为２．４４,远低于日本和意大利,环境压力较小,发展潜力很大。进而提出促进农业持续发展的有关建议与设想。     

固相微萃取-气相色谱法测定饮用水及其水源水中的氯酚

利用固相微萃取(SPME)-气相色谱法(GC)联用技术测定饮用水及其水源水中的氯酚．优化萃取温度、萃取平衡时间、酸度、离子强度等实验条件．所建方法简便、精确,自来水和太湖水中均检测到氯酚。     

成都平原毗河下游生态环境需水量研究

20世纪90年代以来,河流生态环境需水成为生态水文学研究的重要内容。阐述了基于国际上新兴发展的生态水文学理论的生态环境需水量的概念和内涵。并以毗河为例,用能反映时间尺度的河流流量来表达生态环境需水量,而不是传统意义上的水量。为了与水资源配置的时间单元协调起来,对3个代表年〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗=50%（1968年）,〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗=75%（1986年）,〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗=90%（1987年）分别进行生态环境需水量的计算。根据毗河的自然条件,利用Montana法计算了河道维护水生生境最小需水量和最适宜需水量;蒸发需水量由水面宽度、河道两断面间平均长度、河道蒸发深度三者确定;结合河道功能区划和水质目标,计算了污染物稀释需水量。最终确定毗河下游河道的最小生态环境需水量为20.64 m3/s,最适宜生态环境需水量为25.84 m3/s。     

风力发电--中国重要的后续能源

针对中国目前面临的能源短缺和环境污染问题,介绍了中国风能资源的分布及风力发电的特点和现状。提出在中国凤能资源丰富地区大力发展风力发电。目前,风力发电是除水力发电外可再生能源开发利用中技术最成熟、最具规模开发条件和商业化发展前景的发电方式。大力发展风力发电,是解决中国能源和环保问题的重要战略措施之一。     

节能环保产业政策工具评述与展望

节能环保产业是打赢污染防治攻坚战的重要支撑,也是推动经济发展的新兴绿色动能。本文利用瓦当设计的政策工具三分法,对当前节能环保产业政策工具进行了分类研究。当前,影响节能环保产业政策的工具主要包括管制型工具、经济型工具、信息型工具三个类型。管制型工具包括指标控制、强制性标准和监督考核等;经济型工具包括财政支持、税收优惠、价格政策、金融政策等;信息型工具包括技术推广机制、产品推广机制等。尽管我国已经初步建立了政策支持体系,但当前政策工具仍然存在一系列不足,管制型工具、经济型工具、信息型工具都有较大的改进调整空间,应当进一步形成规范、合理的管制型制度,以普惠为主而非补助为主的经济型制度,以提供信息服务为主的信息型制度,并以此促进节能环保产业健康、有序发展。     

Scenario simulation of water security in China

Umited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China‘ s sustainable development. The “compound water security“ consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.