Difficulties with the lognormal model in mean estimation and testing

A frequent assumption in environmental risk assessment is that the underlying distribution of an analyte concentration is lognormal. However, the distribution of a random variable whose log has a t-distribution has infinite mean. Because of the proximity of the standard normal and t-distribution, this suggests that a distribution such as the gamma or truncated normal, with smaller right tail probabilities, might make a better statistical model for mean estimation than the lognormal. In order to assess the effect of departures from lognormality on lognormal-based statistics, we simulated complete lognormal, truncated normal, and gamma data for various sample sizes and coefficients of variation. In these cases, departures from lognormality were not easily detected with the Shapiro-Wilk test. Various lognormal-based estimates and tests were compared with alternate methods based on the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The examples were also considered in the presence of random left censoring with the mean and standard error of the product limit estimate replacing the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The results suggest that in the estimation of or tests about a mean, if the assumption of lognormality is at all suspect, then lognormal-based approaches may not be as good as the alternative methods.     

基于应力-强度干涉理论的可靠度点估计研究

研究了基于应力-强度干涉理论(SSI)的可靠度点估计的一般模型,进而给出了应力和强度均服从单参数指数分布和双参数指数分布时可靠度估计值计算公式,给出其与样本值之间的定量关系。对于应力和强度服从其他分布的情况,采用分布类型变换将其变换为指数分布,然后利用指数分布类型的研究结果给出可靠度估计值计算式,简化了计算。     

Exploitation of Fenton and Fenton-like reagents as alternative conditioners for alum sludge conditioning

The use of Fenton’s reagent (Fe2+/H2O2) and Fenton-like reagents containing transition metals of Cu(II), Zn(II), Co(II), and Mn(II) for an alum sludge conditioning to improve its dewaterability was investigated. The results obtained were compared with those obtained from conditioning the same alum sludge using cationic and anionic polymers. Experimental results show that Fenton’s reagent was the best among the Fenton and Fenton-like reagents for the alum sludge conditioning. A considerable e ectiveness of capillary suction time (CST) reduction e ciency of 47% can be achieved under test conditions of Fe2+/H2O2 = 20/125 mg/g DS (dry solid) and pH 6.0. The observation of floc-like particles after Fenton’s reagent conditioning of alum sludge suggested that the mechanism of Fenton’s reagent conditioning was di erent from that of polymer conditioning. In spite of the lower e ciency in the CST reduction of Fenton’s reagent in alum sludge conditioning compared to that of polymer conditioning, Fenton’s reagent o ers a more environmentally safe option. This study provided an example of proactive treatment engineering, which is aimed at seeking a safe alternative to the use of polymers in sludge conditioning towards achieving a more sustainable sludge management strategy.     

生活垃圾填埋场填埋气产生量估算模型

生活垃圾填埋场产生的填埋气含有约60%左右的甲烷,具有较高的利用价值。但有效开发利用的前提是对填埋气产气量及产气速率进行较为准确的估算,而填埋气的产生是一个非常复杂的过程,为此一些发达国家对此进行了积极的探索和研究,取得了一定的经验。文章据此对各种生活垃圾填埋场填埋气产生量及产气速率的估算方法进行了归纳和总结,按照理论模型和经验模型进行了分类,并比较了各自的优缺点和适用性;同时对先进国家的经验模型进行了剖析,为填埋气的利用提供了设计依据。     

活性污泥生物反应动力学模型研究

介绍了在进行活性污泥法过程模型化研究中,通过对国内外现有成果改进和强化,所建立的结构化生物反应动力学模型。文中提出了建模的系统化方法;采用概念模型图示和矩阵表达法简明清晰地表述了模型化的思路和全部定性定量信息;并简要地介绍了模型参数估值的试验方法及估值结果。      

Estimated home ranges can misrepresent habitat relationships on patchy landscapes

Home ranges of animals are generally structured by the selective use of resource-bearing patches that comprise habitat. Based on this concept, home ranges of animals estimated from location data are commonly used to infer habitat relationships. Because home ranges estimated from animal locations are largely continuous in space, the resource-bearing patches selected by an animal from a fragmented distribution of patches would be difficult to discern; unselected patches included in the home range estimate would bias an understanding of important habitat relationships. To evaluate potential for this bias, we generated simulated home ranges based on optimal selection of resource-bearing patches across a series of simulated resource distributions that varied in the spatial continuity of resources. For simulated home ranges where selected patches were spatially disjunct, we included interstitial, unselected cells most likely to be traveled by an animal moving among selected patches. We compared characteristics of the simulated home ranges with and without interstitial patches to evaluate how insights derived from field estimates can differ from actual characteristics of home ranges, depending on patchiness of landscapes. Our results showed that contiguous home range estimates could lead to misleading insights on the quality, size, resource content, and efficiency of home ranges, proportional to the spatial discontinuity of resource-bearing patches. We conclude the potential bias of including unselected, largely irrelevant patches in the field estimates of home ranges of animals can be high, particularly for home range estimators that assume uniform use of space within home range boundaries. Thus, inferences about the habitat relationships that ultimately define an animal's home range can be misleading where animals occupy landscapes with patchily distributed resources.     

Source function estimate by means of variational data assimilation applied to the ETEX-I tracer experiment

The ETEX data set opens new possibilities to develop data assimilation procedures in the area of long-range transport. This paper illustrates the possibilities using a variational approach, where the source term for ETEX-I was reconstructed. The MATCH model (Robertson et al., 1996) has been the basis for this attempt. The timing of the derived emission rates are in accordance with the time period for the ETEX-I release, and a cross validation, with observations beyond the selected assimilation period, shows that the source term gained holds for the entire ETEX-I experiment. A poor-man variational approach was shown to perform nearly as good as a fully variational data assimilation. The issue of quality control has not been considered in this attempt but will be an important part that has to be addressed in future work.     

中部地区承接国际产业转移效率及驱动机理研究——基于超效率DEA模型和面板回归分析

为研究我国中部6省近15a承接国际产业转移成效,探索提高承接国际产业转移水平路径,从投入产出角度构建了承接国际产业转移效率测度指标体系,采用EMS3.1软件测度了我国中部6省80个地级单元2000~2014年承接国际产业转移效率的时空分异特征,结合GeoDa095i软件分析了中部地区承接国际产业转移效率的时空分异格局及空间关联性;在分析影响承接国际产业转移效率机制的基础上,采用固定效应模型对我国中部6省承接国际产业转移效率的影响因素进行定量分析。结果表明:(1)2000~2014年间处于DEA有效的地市数量逐渐增加,处于波动上升的地市有52个,呈现下降趋势的有28个,省会城市及其周边地区DEA效率值相对高于其他地区;(2)中部地区承接国际产业转移效率空间分异显著,具有明显的空间群聚效应;(3)产业支撑因子、产业吸引因子、产业发展因子对中部地区承接国际产业转移效率影响较为显著,而产业鉴别因子影响相对较弱。影响因素回归系数由大到小分别为二、三产业从业人员比重、客运总量、职工平均工资、人均GDP、年末金融机构存款余额研究与试验发展(RD)经费支出。基于研究结果对中部地区承接国际产业转移提出了相应对策建议。     

中国电线积冰灾害危险性评估和区划

中国有关电线积冰方面的观测资料太少,难以直接用于灾害评估。为了解决这个问题,利用1960-2009年现有的电线积冰和常规气象资料,在分析观测冰重和常规气象指标相关性的基础上,逐步筛选出影响冰重的主要气象指标,构建了电线积冰灾害危险性评估的常规气象指标体系,再利用常规气象资料采用多元线性回归方法估算积冰量,对中国电线积冰灾害危险性进行了评估和区划。结果表明:(1)在综合考虑相关性和空间代表性的基础上,影响雨凇和混合凇冰重的主要气象指标为过程平均风速、积冰时间、过程累计降水量;影响雾凇的为过程平均风速、过程浓雾时间。(2)中国大部分地区电线积冰灾害危险性较低,中高危险区面积较小,分布特征表现出明显的南北差异。中高危险区呈带状分布于南方地区的长江中下游山地丘陵区,北方地区则呈点状分布,具体位置与山地丘陵、江河湖泊均有着密切的关系。     

Lessons from the 2006 Louisiana health and population survey

The 2005 hurricane season caused extensive damage and induced a mass migration of approximately 1.1 million people from southern Louisiana in the United States. Current and accurate estimates of population size and demographics and an assessment of the critical needs for public services were required to guide recovery efforts. Since forecasts using pre-hurricane data may produce inaccurate estimates of the post-hurricane population, a household survey in 18 hurricane-affected parishes was conducted to provide timely and credible information on the size of these populations, their demographics and their condition. This paper describes the methods used, the challenges encountered, and the key factors for successful implementation. This post-disaster survey was unique because it identified the needs of the people in the affected parishes and quantified the number of people with these needs. Consequently, this survey established new population and health indicator baselines that otherwise would have not been available to guide the relief and recovery efforts in southern Louisiana.