Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

汉江上游斜坡破坏的变异

本文从工程地质观点出发,分析汉江上游斜坡一带的天然地质条件及其斜坡破坏的基本形式和原因,从理论上探讨由于经济-工程活动而引起其在天然地质过程方面的变异及效应这一环境工程地质问题。     

车辆悬架螺旋弹簧断裂失效行为研究

目的 判定车辆悬架螺旋弹簧失效的原因,提出改进措施.方法 通过分析和测试其化学成分、氢含量、非金属夹杂物、力学性能、金相组织、断口形貌等,研究车辆悬架螺旋弹簧的失效行为.结果 试件弯曲变形内侧的剪切应力值最大,容易引起应力集中.材料最后断裂区为韧窝和沿晶的混合断裂,且断后伸长率偏低.喷丸并未完全去除脱碳层及表层的其他原始缺陷,表层形成疲劳缺陷的可能性增高.喷丸造成螺旋弹簧表层存在较深的凹坑,凹坑边缘形成明显凸起棱边,引起应力集中,且材料表层存在折叠缺陷.在循环应力作用下,凹坑处折叠缺陷端部首先成为裂纹萌生点,在循环应力作用下,裂纹持续扩展,最终疲劳断裂.结论 减小钢丸粒径,降低喷丸压力,以避免过深的凹坑及尖锐的凸起棱边,并适当增加喷丸过程的表层去除深度;调整热处理工艺,适度降低材料强度、提高韧性,使断后伸长率大于10％.改进轧制工艺,消除材料的折叠缺陷,加强材料缺陷检测.     

顺层边坡岩体结构稳定性分析

顺层边坡的失稳问题一直是工程地质学和岩石力学领域内极为瞩目和急待解决的问题之一。本文根据顺层边坡的地质背景及力学作用机制,抽象出了顺层边坡溃屈破坏的力学模型。利用板柱弹性稳定性理论,结合结构力学的知识,推导出了相应的计算公式。实例分析表明,利用文中的理论方法,并结合工程现场有效的量测手段,可方便、有效的判定顺层边坡的稳定性。     

压缩机组连接螺栓异常断裂失效分析与治理

目的 解决压缩机组一级进气缓冲罐连接螺栓断裂及管嘴失效问题.方法 针对压缩机机械结构和生产工况,通过气流脉动、机械振动测试分析,并结合仿真分析,提出气流脉动抑制措施和机械振动控制措施.分析得出一级进气缓冲罐连接螺栓断裂及管嘴失效的主要原因.结果 压缩机组中体支撑结构刚度不够,缸内交变气流力作用引起进气缓冲罐和气缸水平方向振动.原机组气流脉动控制设计不合适,导致一级进气缓冲罐内脉动不平衡力偏大.结论 提出了基于气流脉动控制和机械振动控制的整改方案,并进行了初步实施,实现了管嘴法兰螺栓受力状态的优化,降低了振动强度,达到了治理目的.     

资源可持续利用:一种资源利用伦理原则

论文阐释了资源利用伦理的概念,从历史实践、现实需求和社会基本伦理意识等方面说明资源可持续利用伦理原则的合理性,用博弈论方法重点讨论了资源可持续利用伦理原则在资源利用中克服“囚徒困境”的作用,伦理失灵的原因和伦理法律化的必要性。     

Development of an Earthen Dam Break Database

Earthen embankment dams comprise 85% of all major operational dams in the United States. Assessment of peak flow rates for these earthen dams and the impacts on dam failure are of high interest to engineers and planners. Regression analysis is a frequently used risk assessment approach for earthen dams. In this paper, we present a decision support tool for assessing the applicability of nine regression equations commonly used by practitioners. Using data from 108 case studies, six parameters were observed to be significant factors predicting for peak flow as a metric for risk analysis. We present our work on an expanded earthen dam break database that relates the regression equations and underlying data. A web application, regression selection tool, is also presented to assess the appropriateness of a given model for a given test point. This graphical display allows users to visualize how their data point compares with the data used for the regression equation. These contributions improve estimates and better inform decision makers regarding operational and safety decisions.     

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and risk for premature ovarian failure and reproductive hormones imbalance

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a typical class of persistent organic pollutants that is ubiquitous worldwide. Previous animal studies suggested that PAHs had adverse effects on female reproduction. However, the human data regarding relationship of PAHs exposure with women reproductive health, such as ovarian dysfunction, are scarce. In this case-control study, the associations of serum levels of PAHs with the risk of premature ovarian failure (POF) and reproductive hormones in Chinese women were investigated, with recruiting 157 POF patients and 217 healthy women. The serum levels of 12 types of PAHs, as well as reproductive hormones, including follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone and anti-mullerian hormone, were determined. In the logistic regression models, most individual PAH congeners showed significantly positive correlations with the risk of POF (p < 0.05), except for fluorine and pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as the most carcinogenic PAH congener, was observed to be significantly positively associated with the risk of POF. After adjustment for age, body mass index, educational levels and household income, per one-unit increase in the log-transformed BaP concentration was significantly correlated with 2.191-fold increased risk of POF (OR = 2.191, 95%CI: 1.634–2.938, p < 0.05). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report an association between internal exposure levels of PAHs and the increased risk of POF in women.     

T型槽密封结构的有限元分析及试验验证

目的通过有限元分析,实现T型密封结构的优化设计。方法利用ABAQUS建立液压系统用T型槽密封结构的二维轴对称模型,分析计算密封结构中过渡圆角、槽宽、倾斜角度等对密封圈应力分布、接触应力的影响,通过设计密封圈老化寿命试验,验证分析结论。结果随着过渡圆角(R0.5～R2)的增大、倾斜角度(10°～3°)的减小,密封圈的局部应力最大值和接触应力均减小。随着槽宽(10～18mm)的增加,密封圈的局部应力最大值逐渐增加,接触应力逐渐减小。分析用密封结构的接触应力均大于密封介质压力0.7 MPa。最终通过试验证实了分析用密封结构均满足密封性能,且不合理的设计会降低密封圈寿命。结论在密封介质压力较小的情况下,建议选用较大的过渡圆角(推荐值为R2),较小的倾斜角度(推荐值为5°～6°)及槽宽(推荐值为密封圈截面直径的1.2～1.5倍)。     

压载舱锌阳极失效原因分析及实验室研究

目的 找到压载舱锌阳极失效原因,并提出整改方案。方法 对服役环境进行调研、阳极化学成分检测、电化学性能检测以及阳极表面形貌检测。结果 干湿交替以及高温的环境是造成锌阳极发生钝化的主要原因。在干湿交替环境下,阳极腐蚀表面晶粒松散,晶界宽度大,发生晶间腐蚀和晶粒脱落,造成了阳极失效。结论 通过该项目的实验研究,得出了锌阳极的适用条件,在干湿交替的环境以及高温环境(50 ℃)下,不推荐使用锌阳极,建议使用铝阳极。