Predicting local population distributions around a central shelter based on a predation risk-growth trade-off

Animals face trade-offs between predation risk and foraging success depending on their location in the landscape; for example, individuals that remain near a common shelter may be safe from predation but incur stronger competition for resources. Despite a long tradition of theoretical exploration of the relationships among foraging success, conspecific competition, predation risk, and population distribution in a heterogeneous environment, the scenario we describe here has not been explored theoretically. We construct a model of habitat use rules to predict the distribution of a local population (prey sharing a common shelter and foraging across surrounding habitats). Our model describes realized habitat quality as a ratio of density- and location-dependent mortality to density-dependent growth. We explore how the prey distribution around a shelter is expected to change as the parameters governing the strength of density dependence, landscape characteristics, and local abundance vary. Within the range of parameters where prey spend some time away from shelter but remain site-attached, the prey density decreases away from shelter. As the distance at which prey react to predators increases, the population range generally increases. At intermediate reaction distances, however, increases in the reaction distance lead to decreases in the maximum foraging distance because of increased evenness in the population distribution. As total abundance increases, the population range increases, average population density increases, and realized quality decreases. The magnitude of these changes differs in, for example, ‘high-’ and ‘low-visibility’ landscapes where prey can detect predators at different distances.     

协调贸易与环境的最佳途径——环境成本内部化

面对经济发展带来人类福利增加的同时所产生的日益严重的环境污染问题。国际贸易被指责为环境质量下降的原因之一．甚至连国际贸易自由化的原则也受到质疑。围绕贸易与环境可否协调以及如何协调的问题．由环境保护与贸易自由化在理论和实践中的冲突引出贸易与环境之间存在着复杂的相互作用；并通过进一步的经济学分析得出结论：环境问题的根源并不是国际贸易。而是环境成本的外部性造成的市场失灵，而国际贸易只是加重了这种市场失灵。二者可以协调发展。环境成本内部化是解决这一问题的最佳手段。通过环境成本内部化可以达到环境资源的合理配置并最终实现可持续发展。     

Accuracy of Down syndrome risks produced in a first-trimester screening programme incorporating fetal nuchal translucency thickness and maternal serum biochemistry

Over the past three years approximately 12 000 women have been screened in the first trimester through our OSCAR programme, which utilizes fetal NT and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A. During this time 30 cases of Down syndrome were identified either prenatally or postnatally. Using an established procedure the accuracy of predicted risk for Down syndrome was assessed in a population of 30 cases of Down syndrome and 11 758 unaffected pregnancies. The correlation between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome was very high (r=0.9995). It is concluded that risks produced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation combined risk algorithm agree very closely with Down syndrome prevalence and can be used with confidence when counselling women of their risk. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal detection of free sialic acid storage disease: genetic and biochemical studies in nine families

Sialic acid storage disorders, Salla disease (SD) and a severe infantile form of disease (ISSD), are recessively inherited allelic lysosomal storage disorders due to impaired egress of free sialic acid from lysosomes. Fourteen pregnancies at risk of adult-type free sialic acid storage disease, SD, were monitored by sialic acid assays, genetic linkage or mutation detection analyses using chorionic villus samples. Three affected and 12 unaffected fetuses were identified. The first studies were based on the sialic acid assays alone, but the location of the gene enabled the use of genetic linkage analysis and, more recently, the identification of the SLC17A5 gene and disease-causing mutations added yet another possibility for prenatal studies. A missense mutation 115C→T (R39C) is present in 95% of all Finnish SD alleles, providing an easy and reliable means of diagnostic studies. Both molecular and biochemical (sialic acid assay) studies can be used for prenatal diagnosis of free sialic acid storage diseases. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maternal serum levels of dimeric inhibin A in pregnancies affected by trisomy 21 in the first trimester

Dimeric inhibin A was measured in maternal serum samples from 45 pregnancies affected by trisomy 21 and 493 samples from unaffected pregnancies at 10–14 weeks of gestation. Inhibin A levels in affected pregnancies were compared with levels of free β-hCG and PAPP-A in the same series. In the trisomy 21 group, the median multiple of the median (MoM) inhibin A was not significantly elevated (1.28 vs 1.00) with only 15.5% being above the 95th centile. In contrast, the median MoM free β-hCG was significantly increased (2.05 vs 1.00) with 36% above the 95th centile and PAPP-A was significantly reduced (0.49 vs 1.00) with 42% below the 5th centile. Inhibin A levels in the trisomy 21 group were significantly correlated with gestational age such that median levels rose from 1.04 at 11 weeks to 1.30 at 12 weeks and 1.67 at 13 weeks. These findings suggest that first trimester biochemical screening for trisomy 21, which is currently optimised using maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A and fetal nuchal translucency, will not benefit from the inclusion of inhibin A. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

二氧化氯-氯联合用于饮用水消毒的研究进展

使用单一的氯或者二氧化氯消毒剂都有一定的局限性,二氧化氯-氯联合消毒工艺是近年来消毒工艺研究的新方向,本文主要对二氧化氯-氯联合消毒工艺的特点和控制因素进行阐述。实验结果表明,二氧化氯-氯联合消毒工艺不仅能够有效地去除水样中的大肠杆菌以及其他细菌,而且联合消毒工艺能够减少消毒副产物的生成,并且有比较强的持续消毒能力。联合消毒工艺受投加比例的影响比较大,因为二氧化氯的浓度过高,衰减也相应增加,并且所产生的ClO2^-量也随之增加;而当液氯的浓度过高时,对应所产生的消毒副产物也随之增加。投加比例一般在ClO2：Cl2=1：3到1：6之间。     

“限塑令”政策有效性评估的实例分析

通过对上海市杨浦区3个居民小区"限塑令"实施前后塑料袋消费情况的调研.发现"限塑令"在一定程度上起到了塑料袋减量化的作用,但效果并不明显.其瓶颈在于我国当前对商品流通领域的控制能力非常薄弱,对非正规零售商约束力度不够、监管缺位,导致他们无视"限塑令"的规定,继续提供免费塑料袋,从而严重架空了"限塑令"的减量化效果.文章中提出了通过加强监管和处罚力度、培育社会参与机制,以及加大公众宣传活动等措施,消除"限塑令"的政策死角,以真正实现塑料购物袋消费减量化的目标.     

“限塑令”发布后的变化与反响

对国务院办公厅下发“限塑令”后的变化与反响以及出现的问题等进行了全面分析,并在此基础上,综合阐述了国内各大媒体针对“限塑令”在推行过程中存在的问题提出的若干切中实际的应对策略。主要包括：如何理解和贯彻“限塑令”这个利国利民的“国策”,如何将“限塑”作为一项造福人类的系统工程来实施,如何将“限塑”引入到改善环境、节约资源、培养健康生活习惯的良性循环轨道上来等意见和建议。