Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.     

环境影响的IPAT模型再认识

伴随工业文明的发展,探究日益恶化环境问题的社会根源成为学术界激烈争论的议题,从人口规模与技术水平的单因素争论拓展到文化背景、政府类型和消费观念等多因素论的讨论,在横向上从宏观社会到微观个体层次的解释,最终形成经典的环境影响的IPAT模型,试图解释环境问题产生的复杂社会动力机制。本文通过国内外学者对IPAT模型的实证研究以及理论探讨梳理发现:模型中的因变量环境影响I以及自变量人口数量P、富裕程度A和技术水平T的内涵、完备性以及分析单位的适用性等方面备受争议。为了克服变量的局限,首先通过分解IPAT模型中T变量,进一步拓展模型中可能被忽略的对环境影响的多重因素;同时为了避免模型中不同因素对环境影响的同比例线性变化的局限性,将IPAT模型转化为非线性的STIRPAT随机模型,使各变量值随观察值的变化而变化;其次为了克服研究中忽视个体对环境影响差异性的不足,以"双重转换"理论为基础分析少数特权群体对环境造成不成比例的影响;最后面对分析单位以及分析情景的差异性与复杂性,基于"世界体系论"视角突破特定区域时空以国家间互动关系为分析单位对全球环境退化展开讨论。研究表明,IPAT模型的发展演变表明环境保护与经济发展关系逐渐从悲观的"零和"冲突走向协调发展的路径,有利于探索更加有效的举措应对全球复杂而严峻的环境问题,同时对新常态下中国推进生态文明建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究

环境质量是影响目的地旅游竞争力和可持续发展的重要因素。近年来,中国大陆出现了大范围的严重空气质量问题,雾霾成为备受关注的环境问题,关于雾霾的成因及其影响和防治成为当前学术研究的热点。包括北京在内的许多旅游城市饱受雾霾的困扰,雾霾对旅游业的负面影响开始显现,并成为当前旅游发展和学术研究的新问题。北京是世界知名的旅游目的地,旅游业在北京经济社会发展中占有重要地位,科学揭示雾霾对北京作为目的地旅游市场需求的负面影响,对于丰富雾霾影响的认识以及深化旅游研究具有重要意义。本文利用问卷星和微信平台进行了在线问卷调查,通过滚雪球方式获得了大数量较高可靠性的样本数据,研究了京外大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知及其决策行为倾向,分析了大陆居民对北京雾霾感知的群体差异。研究表明:1在国内外媒体的广泛报道、亲友的口耳相传以及亲身经历等渠道的综合影响下,大陆居民对北京的雾霾及旅游健康风险、旅游体验风险均有十分强烈的感知;2在雾霾的持续困扰下,北京国内旅游需求减弱,市场增长速度放缓,同时也加剧了北京旅游市场的季节波动;3高学历、高收入群体对北京雾霾的旅游影响更加敏感,雾霾严重地区的居民对北京雾霾的感知强度明显大于雾霾不严重地区的居民,雾霾严重地区的居民在旅游目的地选择方面也更加排斥北京。     

山地城市小型季节性河流雨洪淹没的数值模拟

为预测伏牛溪中下游河段沿岸工程设施在流域暴雨期的潜在淹没危险性,利用MIKE11模型模拟了不同重现期暴雨和长江洪水发生时,伏牛溪中下游河段淹没深度及淹没范围。结果表明:50年及100年一遇暴雨发生时,伏牛溪中游河段的平均淹没深度分别为4.9 m和5.7 m,淹没面积分别为40 542 m2和41 980 m2,鳌山综合市场处居民生活用地会被淹没;50年及100年一遇长江洪水倒灌发生时,下游河段平均淹没深度分别为7.5 m和8.9 m,淹没面积分别为9 890 m2和10 931 m2;50年及100年一遇暴雨和长江洪水同时发生时,下游河段平均淹没深度分别达到9.4 m和10.1 m,淹没面积分别为14 559 m2和16 987 m2,下游污水处理装置会被淹没,部分居民建筑物地基受到威胁。模拟结果为伏牛溪流域的防洪规划和工程设施建设提供了参考。     

Quantification of the influence of life cycle parameters on the total environmental impact of steel-framed buildings

Due to the increased urgency with which environmental issues are currently being prioritized, business sectors such as construction, that have been identified as one of the largest consumers of raw materials and energy, are actively involved in research aiming to optimize construction processes and products in terms of environmental impact. Although researchers have pointed out various issues and aspects of a construction project’s delivery process that can significantly affect its environmental impact, the extent to which these issues can influence the total environmental impact of the project is unclear. The current research aims to investigate and eventually quantify the influence of a number of such parameters, utilizing an existing steel-framed building as the basis for the necessary calculations. The conclusions drawn illustrate the actual extent of the influence of the examined life cycle parameters, while also offering specific insight in regard to the determination of criteria that can be used as the basis for recommendations for similar projects.     

京津冀地区矿产资源开发的生态环境影响研究

京津冀地区位于我国北方农牧交错带前缘,坝上、燕山、太行山等地区是区域水源的主要发源地,同样是京津及华北平原的主要生态屏障。对京津冀地区矿产资源开发的生态环境影响进行评价,具有重要现实意义。本文根据京津冀地区矿产资源开发现状、规划空间布局和生态环境特点,综合运用GIS空间分析技术和生态风险理论,从矿产资源的空间布局合理性角度入手,分析京津冀地区矿产资源开发利用的生态环境影响,并以此识别区域内矿产资源开发的生态风险高发区和较高发区。结果显示,京津冀地区矿产资源开发空间布局与燕山、太行山山地水源涵养与水土保持区、坝上高原风沙防护区等生态功能区存在空间重叠,规模性的矿产开发会对区域内的水源涵养、土壤保持、生物多样性维护等生态功能构成持续性影响;高海拔地区的高强度开矿同样会加剧水土流失和荒漠化。天津市滨海区,承德市宽城满族自治县,邯郸市武安市等市县因密集分布了已有的矿产开发企业,并囊括了近期矿产资源开发的众多矿区,矿产资源开发的遗留性问题也比较突出,成为矿产资源开发的生态风险高发区。在生态影响分析基础上,本文提出了有针对性的空间差异性生态保护对策,以期为京津冀地区矿产资源开发布局优化提供技术支撑。     

瓯江河口潮汐特征变化及其原因分析

利用瓯江河口沿程4个长期潮位站的监测数据,结合潮流数学模型,计算分析1960~2014年各站年均高、低潮位,年均涨落潮历时特征值,得出瓯江河口近54 a来潮汐特征变化过程,分析相关影响因素,探讨河口潮汐特征变化原因。结果表明:瓯江河口下游的龙湾站多年来潮汐特征尚无明显趋势性变化;河口中上游的温州、梅岙和花岩头站趋势性变化明显且变化规律基本一致,整体表现为高潮位上升、低潮位下降、潮差增大,涨潮历时延长、落潮历时缩短的特征,时空格局上,上游站位潮汐特征变幅大于下游站位,低潮位变幅大于高潮位变幅。原因分析表明,流域来水对河口潮汐特征的影响不明显;堤线调整和围垦工程等人类活动主要引起工程局部河段潮位变化;河口高强度的采砂活动应是温州、梅岙、花岩头站潮汐特征变化的主因。瓯江河口不同河段因受径流、潮流、人类活动等因素的影响程度不同,其潮位特征沿程的变化特点也不同,需要在河口工程设计、防洪减灾与河口治理等方面予以关注。     

Modeling Watershed‐Scale Impacts of Stormwater Management with Traditional versus Low Impact Development Design

Stormwater runoff and associated pollutants from urban areas in the greater Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) impair local streams and downstream ecosystems, despite urbanized land comprising only 7% of the CBW area. More recently, stormwater best management practices (BMPs) have been implemented in a low impact development (LID) manner to treat stormwater runoff closer to its source. This approach included the development of a novel BMP model to compare traditional and LID design, pioneering the use of comprehensively digitized storm sewer infrastructure and BMP design connectivity with spatial patterns in a geographic information system at the watershed scale. The goal was to compare total watershed pollutant removal efficiency in two study watersheds with differing spatial patterns of BMP design (traditional and LID), by quantifying the improved water quality benefit of LID BMP design. An estimate of uncertainty was included in the modeling framework by using ranges for BMP pollutant removal efficiencies that were based on the literature. Our model, using Monte Carlo analysis, predicted that the LID watershed removed approximately 78 kg more nitrogen, 3 kg more phosphorus, and 1,592 kg more sediment per square kilometer as compared with the traditional watershed on an annual basis. Our research provides planners a valuable model to prioritize watersheds for BMP design based on model results or in optimizing BMP selection.     

Effects and success factors of sustainable consumption policy instruments: a comparative assessment across Europe

Important knowledge gaps exist regarding the effects of policy instruments for sustainable consumption (SC) and success factors of such instruments. This article compares and summarizes the results of six case studies on the effects and success factors of SC instruments in the need areas of housing and food. While analysing different instrument types from four different European countries, all case studies were guided by the same analytical framework and mixed-methods approach. This synthesis article particularly emphasizes factors fostering the generation of instrument effects (outcomes and impacts) or hampering the creation of such effects, respectively. These factors include instrument goals and design, the accommodation of consumer needs, and the simultaneous addressing of framework conditions, as well as market context, policy interaction, and stakeholder involvement. The findings and conclusions can contribute to a better understanding of the conditions under which policy instruments can steer consumer behaviour towards sustainability.