地表变形预测分析--发电厂典型例子研究

通过对地表变形观测数据的分析、拟合及训练,采用人工神经网络方法和数理方法对地表变形的规律及发展趋势进行预测,并与观测数据进行对比分析,得到了较好的结果,为控制地表变形的发展及工程处理提供了可靠依据.     

城市防灾减灾设施的层级选址问题建模

提出了城市防灾减灾设施的层级选址问题,并对其进行了分类.针对高低级设施相对独立和相互从属的层级选址问题进行了建模.依据城市防灾减灾设施选址问题的特点,提出了两阶段的层级选址过程:(1)使用位置集合覆盖模型确定能覆盖全部需求点所必需的最少设施数量和位置,作为基本等级设施的选址;(2)对独立型层级选址问题,使用最大覆盖准则确定高级设施的位置,对从属型层级选址问题,使用极小和准则确定高级设施的位置.对层级选址问题模型的应用进行了讨论.     

准确快速科学评估地震灾害及其损失的方法

以江苏省常熟－太仓５．１级地震现场震害评估和经济损失分析工作为基础，结合江苏省地震重点监视防御区震灾快速预测，讨论准确快速科学评估地震灾害及其损失的途径和方法。     

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVERITY OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHTS BASED ON AGRO-CLIMATIC FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations.     

气田开发对水土流失的影响预测──以陕甘宁盆地中部气田开发为例

结合大量的实际调查资料，筛选出影响水土流失的因子，建立了预测水土流失的灰色状态模型；并以此分析了气田开发对水土流失的影响，最后作出了影响预测，并提出了相应的措施与对策。     

菏泽5．9级地震的发震构造及其前兆构造活动

在分析了地震地质、物探、卫片等新的资料的基础上，认为在菏泽地震区地下隐伏着一条北东向深大断裂带。地震区内的解元集—小留集断裂与北面向的成武—定陶断裂构成共轭破裂导致菏泽５．９级地震发生，北东向断裂是其主要的发震构造。由菏泽５．９级地震前沿发震断层的ＭＬ≥３．０级地震震中迁移、震源深度的变化及跨断层形变测量资料表明，发震断层在区域构造应力场的作用下逐步克服障碍，使断层贯通，与此同时在发震构造断层面上，断层上盘向上逆冲，使应力最后集中在两条断层的交汇部位致５．９级地震发生。     

用泥石流灾害信息网络减轻泥石流对列车的威胁

提出建立铁路泥石流灾害信息网络的设想，以便在泥石流形成和发生的各个阶段，较准确地作出是否让列车过桥的决定。文中对网络的背景、组成、工作原理及开发中应注意的问题进行了探讨。     

Models for Prediction and Assessment of Losses of Production Suspending and Cutting in Enterprises

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湖泊水环境预测的原理与方法

论述了湖泊水环境预测常用方法,主要有输入输出模型、扩散模型、富营养化水质模型和多元回归模型等,属于因果关系的短期和瞬时预测,并且将灰色动态模型和回归分析模型耦合能预测湖泊水环境今后几年甚至几十年的变化,将提高预测效率;提出了湖泊水环境的基本程序;最后指出水资源研究的随机分析、模糊分析和灰色系统的耦合与ＧＩＳ、ＲＳ和ＧＰＳ的应用是今后湖泊水环境预测的发展趋势。     

新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP知识库子系统

对新一代地震预报专家系统ＮＧＥＳＥＰ中“规则／框架”知识、学习知识、一般规则进行了详细的介绍,给出了各类知识在地震预报中所对应的不同含义和一致性检查的方法。