Machine learning based quantitative consequence prediction models for toxic dispersion casualty

Incidental release of toxic chemicals can pose extreme danger to life in the vicinity. Therefore, it is crucial for emergency responders, plant operators, and safety professionals to have a fast and accurate prediction to evaluate possible toxic dispersion life-threatening consequences. In this work, a toxic chemical dispersion casualty database that contains 450 leak scenarios of 18 toxic chemicals is constructed to develop a machine learning based quantitative property-consequence relationship (QPCR) model to estimate the affected area caused by toxic chemical release within a certain death rate. The results show that the developed QPCR model can predict the toxic dispersion casualty range with root mean square error of maximum distance, minimum distance, and maximum width less than 0.2, 0.4, and 0.3, which indicates that the constructed model has satisfying accuracy in predicting toxic dispersion ranges under different lethal consequences. The model can be further expanded to accommodate more toxic chemicals and leaking scenarios.     

Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

The integrated project AquaTerra of the EU sixth framework lays foundations for better understanding of river-sediment-soil-groundwater systems

The integrated project "AquaTerra" with the full title "integrated modeling of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system; advanced tools for the management of catchment areas and river basins in the context of global change" is among the first environmental projects within the sixth Framework Program of the European Union. Commencing in June 2004, it brought together a multidisciplinary team of 45 partner organizations from 12 EU countries, Romania, Switzerland, Serbia and Montenegro. AquaTerra is an ambitious project with the primary objective of laying the foundations for a better understanding of the behavior of environmental pollutants and their fluxes in the soil-sediment-water system with respect to climate and land use changes. The project performs research as well as modeling on river-sediment-soil-groundwater systems through quantification of deposition, sorption and turnover rates and the development of numerical models to reveal fluxes and trends in soil and sediment functioning. Scales ranging from the laboratory to river basins are addressed with the potential to provide improved river basin management, enhanced soil and groundwater monitoring as well as the early identification and forecasting of impacts on water quantity and quality. Study areas are the catchments of the Ebro, Meuse, Elbe and Danube Rivers and the Brévilles Spring. Here we outline the general structure of the project and the activities conducted within eleven existing sub-projects of AquaTerra.     

以关键酶为基础共代谢模型的建立——以甲烷细菌共代谢三氯乙烯为例

根据共代谢过程扣特点，详细推导建立了一个以关键酶为中心的综合性数学模型，模型不仅包括传统的基质降解迷率和微生物生长，而且包括关键产诱导，毒性抑制和自我恢复，以及能量的调节等重要因素，模型能够在理解释文献报道的各种实验现象。     

Preparation of solar-enhanced AlZnO@carbon nano-substrates for remediation of textile wastewaters

Photoactive aluminum doped ZnO(AlZnO) was synthesized by sol-gel method.After that,AlZnO photocatalyst was deposited on five carbon-based materials(CBMs) using ultrasonic route followed by solid-state mixing using ball mill.The CBMs used were poly aniline(PANI),carbon nitride(CN),carbon nanotubes(CNT),graphene(G),and carbon nanofibers(CNF).The crystal phases,elemental compositions,morphological,and optical properties of the AlZnO@CBMs composites were investigated.Experimental results revealed that two of AlZnO@CBMs composites exhibited superior bleaching efficiency(100% removal) and photocatalytic stability(three cycles) for 50 μmol/L Methylene Blue(MB) contaminated water after 60 min irradiation in visible light at pH 6.5,0.7% H_2O_2,and 5 g/L inorganic salts.Under optimum conditions,AlZnO@CBMs nanocomposites were employed for the treatment of mixed dyestuffs composed of MB,Methyl Orange(MO),Astrazone Blue FRR(BB 69),and Rhodamine B(RhB) dyes under dark,ultraviolet,visible,and direct sunlight.For mixed dyestuffs,the AlZnO@G achieved the highest dye sorption capacity(60.91 μmol dye stuffs/g) with kinetic rate 8.22 × 10~(-3) min~(-1) in 90 min via multi-layer physisorption(Freundlich isotherm) on graphene sheet.In additions,AlZnO@CN offered the highest photo-kinetic rate(K_(photo)) of～54.1 × 10~(-3) min~(-1)(93.8% after 60 min) under direct sunlight.Furthermore,the selective radical trapping experiment confirmed that the holes and oxidative superoxide radicals are crucial on dyes photodegradation pathway.Owing to their superior performance,AlZnO@G and AlZnO@CN nanocomposites can offer an effective in-situ solar-assisted adsorption/photocatalytic remediation of textile wastewater effluents.     

Long‐Term Trends of Nutrients and Sediment from the Nontidal Chesapeake Watershed: An Assessment of Progress by River and Season

To assess historical loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) from the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed (NTCBW), we analyzed decadal seasonal trends of flow‐normalized loads at the fall‐line of nine major rivers that account for >90% of NTCBW flow. Evaluations of loads by season revealed N, P, and SS load magnitudes have been highest in January‐March and lowest in July‐September, but the temporal trends have followed similar decadal‐scale patterns in all seasons, with notable exceptions. Generally, total N (TN) load has dropped since the late 1980s, but particulate nutrients and SS have risen since the mid‐1990s. The majority of these rises were from Susquehanna River and relate to diminished net trapping at the Conowingo Reservoir. Substantial rises in SS were also observed, however, in other rivers. Moreover, the summed rise in particulate P load from other rivers is of similar magnitude as from Susquehanna. Dissolved nutrient loads have dropped in the upland (Piedmont and above) rivers, but risen in two small rivers in the Coastal Plain affected by lagged groundwater input. In addition, analysis of fractional contributions revealed consistent N trends across the upland watersheds. Finally, total N:total P ratios have declined in most rivers, suggesting the potential for changes in nutrient limitation. Overall, this integrated study of historical data highlights the value of maintaining long‐term monitoring at multiple watershed locations.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Recent application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in process safety and loss prevention: A review

In recent years, significant progress has been made to ensure that process industries are among the safest workplaces in the world. However, with the increasing complexity of existing technologies and new problems brought about by emerging technologies, a strong need still exists to study the fundamentals of process safety and predict possible scenarios. This is attained by conducting the corresponding consequence modeling and risk assessments. As a result of the continuous advancement of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools and exponentially increased computation capabilities along with better understandings of the underlying physics, CFD simulations have been applied widely in the areas of process safety and loss prevention to gain new insights, improve existing models, and assess new hazardous scenarios. In this review, 126 papers from 2010 to 2020 have been included in order to systematically categorize and summarize recent applications of CFD for fires, explosions, dispersions of flammable and toxic materials from accidental releases, incident investigations and reconstructions, and other areas of process safety. The advantages of CFD modeling are discussed and the future of CFD applications in this research area is outlined.     

Water Quality Modeling of Municipal Discharges from Sea Outfalls,Mumbai

The island city of Mumbai with a population of about 10 million generates about 2000 million liters per day (mld) of sewage from the seven service areas of the city sewerage network and discharges it into the adjoining west coast and the two creeks in the Arabian Sea. This has resulted in degradation of coastal water quality, contamination of the adjoining beaches and seafronts. The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai has therefore, undertaken the task of delineating appropriate sewage disposal system to achieve cleaner marine ecosystem through marine outfalls at specific locations. This paper presents the results of the mathematical simulations on the impacts of discharge is-a-vis the length of the outfall and level of land treatment apriori. The results of the simulation indicate the level of bacterial pollution to be higher near the diffuser locations as compared to nearshore regions. 48 hsimulation result analysis shows that FC counts nearthe diffuser location will be in the range of 2000–8000 counts per 100 ml.