Copula-Based Bivariate Return Period Analysis and Its Implication to Hydrological Design Event

In univariate frequency analysis, the return period of an event has a one-to-one correspondence with its characteristic value, and the response of the hydraulic structure to hydrological load expressed by the hydrological event is monotonic. Thus, the design criteria of the hydraulic structure can be equivalently represented by the return period of the hydrological event, and consequently, design event-based design parameters evaluated have been widely used in practical engineering. However, the monotonic correspondence between the return period of the hydrological event and the response of the hydraulic structure does not exist in the multivariate context, and hydrological load with a larger joint return period does not always produce a more unsafe response. Misunderstandings of concepts of return periods of hydrological event, and estimation of hydrological design events usually take place in multivariate frequency analysis. This study theoretically derives the relations between different types of joint return periods, joint return period and its marginal return periods, the occurrence of bivariate extreme events and their return periods, and then the theoretical framework is tested. Results from the case contribute to the understanding of bivariate return periods of hydrological event, and the results demonstrate that design criteria cannot be equivalently represented by joint return periods of hydrological load, and design parameters of the hydraulic structure should not be determined by multivariate hydrological design events.     

人机操作界面中有或无外部反应对后继作业的干扰作用

实验结果提示：在高速复杂人机系统操作界面的优化设计中,有或无外部反应都不能消除对后继作业的瓶颈干扰。但是,有外部反应比无外部反应,对后继作业的瓶颈干扰更大;无外部反应降低了瓶颈的干扰强度,从而显示出提高了被交叠作业绩效的趋向。另外,降低反应选择复杂度可有效提高被交叠作业的绩效     

近场长周期强地震动幅值谱研究

本文研究了近场长周期强地震动加速度的傅氏谱和功率谱模型及其参数估计方法,基于强地震动参数统计上的无向性,提出了一种结合地震学模拟模型和工程学统计回归模型的综合方法。文中定义了强地震动平稳段均方根加速度的计算方法,并通过均方根加速度建立了震源力学参数和强地震动工程参数间的关系。通过对目前使用的主观持时定义的应用分析,指出主观持时定义使得估计的地震动过程的峰值加速度的变异性与实际地震动过程的峰值加速度的变异性有显著不同,明显偏小,这对于结构抗震可靠度分析可能会得到失效概度偏小的结果,应引起工程界的重视。     

长江中游致洪暴雨天气气候特征

本文从建国以来长江中游地区发生的所有暴雨事件中选出四个典型年，并从这些典型年的暴雨个例中得出暴雨和大暴雨和大暴雨的分布范围和暴雨特征，由此而造成的特大洪水情况，以及洪涝灾害对国民经济的影响。最后应用天气归纳方法分析了暴雨的大尺度环流背景。     

基于人工神经网络的巢湖富营养化分时分区评价

应用人工神经网络方法,以温度、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、总氮作为评价参数,对巢湖湖区12个点位的营养状态进行了分时段评价,一共评价了2000年至2003年四个年度的各月份的营养状态。因为湖泊的营养状态水平是变化的,不同区域、不同时段营养状态水平是不同的,因此采用分区分时评价更能全面客观地反映巢湖的营养状态水平及其变化特征。     

采空区遗煤自燃过程及其规律的数值模拟研究

基于非均质多孔介质中的连续性方程、多相气体渗流———扩散方程和综合传热方程,建立了工作面动态推进下的采空区自燃数值模型。结合实例,从理论上描绘了工作面开采过程中采空区的漏风流态、氧、CO、瓦斯和温度等分布状态及其动态过程。计算中考虑了瓦斯涌出对自燃的耦合作用;工作面动态推进对自燃的影响,以及沿边界冒落非压实性对漏风供氧、自燃高温区产生的影响。从理论上重点讨论了采空区自燃与各因素的定量化关系,得出自然发火期与煤氧化速度、工作面风量二者均呈显著的反比例关系;对于综放工作面采场漏风供氧系统,自然发火期主要取决于煤的耗氧能力,提高工作面风量仅能扩大自燃高温区的范围,增大自燃的发生几率;提高推进度能显著延长采空区自然发火期,呈指数变化。     

应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性

运用极值分布理论对1970～1999年间台湾和华东地区的地震资料进行统计性研究,得出其地震相应震级的复发周期[T(M)]、理论发震次数(η)和华东地区中强地震的发震概率阈值(PO)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究的结果对华东地区5级以上地震的发震概率、发震时间和地震强度进行综合判定,效果较好。     

Evaluation of energy savings by using high efficiency motors in a thermal power station

This paper presents potential energy savings by installing high-efficiency motors instead of existing ones and their impact on greenhouse gases emissions reductions. This research study of the energy efficiency of electric motors has been performed in a typical thermal power plant. In the literature, the focus has been mainly on separate and away electric motors from operating facilities. The important advantage of this paper over other studies is that it uses the actual motors’ efficiency in the evaluation. The gains both in terms of electrical energy savings and in terms of financial economy by using high-efficiency motors have been discussed. As a result, the energy saving can be expected as 12.6% at the operating rate. This excellent result also reduces greenhouse gas emission by 1,423 tons every year. The analysis of the data provided an overview on energy losses often generated by the degradation and rewinding of electrical motors. This study represents very encouraging results that will help energy managers of industrial plants to become more involved in energy efficiency strategies.     

长江流域的空间结构研究

在认识空间结构内涵与确定研究范围的基础上,运用主成分和聚类分析方法,获得了长江流域的空间分异状况。长江流域空间结构符合核心 边缘结构模式,包括3个一级核心、8个二级核心、两大跨省成长三角、1条主轴、2条辅轴、3条地方轴、1个外围区和1个边缘区。长江流域空间结构的演变,经历了低水平的离散型阶段、极化发展的非均衡阶段、扩散的多核非均衡阶段,未来将向区域一体化的高水平均衡阶段发展。从聚散原理、空间相互作用和国家宏观区域发展战略等3方面,分析了长江流域空间结构的演变机制。长江流域空间结构的优化,要从内部要素与外部力量两方面入手做3件事情。一要加快单个节点的发展和尽快形成核心区域,尤其是上游地区要构建一个以成渝为双核的兼顾南北较大范围的成长多边形;二要加快东西通道的建设和注重主轴与辅轴间的连接通道的构建或完善;三要注重基于市场一体化的区域空间治理体制的创新.