Protection of Mammal Diversity in Central America

Abstract:  Central America is exceptionally rich in biodiversity, but varies widely in the attention its countries devote to conservation. Protected areas, widely considered the cornerstone of conservation, were not always created with the intent of conserving that biodiversity. We assessed how well the protected-area system of Central America includes the region's mammal diversity. This first required a refinement of existing range maps to reduce their extensive errors of commission (i.e., predicted presences in places where species do not occur). For this refinement, we used the ecological limits of each species to identify and remove unsuitable areas from the range. We then compared these maps with the locations of protected areas to measure the habitat protected for each of the region's 250 endemic mammals. The species most vulnerable to extinction—those with small ranges—were largely outside protected areas. Nevertheless, the most strictly protected areas tended toward areas with many small-ranged species. To improve the protection coverage of mammal diversity in the region, we identified a set of priority sites that would best complement the existing protected areas. Protecting these new sites would require a relatively small increase in the total area protected, but could greatly enhance mammal conservation.     

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy‐neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists’ interpretations of the phrase “significant portion of its range” in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

The inertial range “outer scale” and optical turbulence

The crucial parameter used to calculate turbulence effects upon light waves propagating through the atmosphere is known as the structure constant, . As Tatarski has shown, this parameter depends upon the “outer scale” of the inertial sub-range of the turbulence. Recently there have been successful predictions of astronomical “seeing” conditions at Mauna Kea Astronomical Observatory which have increased interest in this subject and in the use of the so-called “Dewan Optical Turbulence Model”. In the case of the Air Force, there has been a longstanding need for such optical turbulence prediction, especially in the stratosphere. In the past researchers have used a relation due to Tatarski, (which plays a prominent role in this model) in order to deduce values of the “outer scale” from measurements. When doing this, they have been surprised to find values very much smaller than expected. The goal of the paper is to explain this unexpected result. As we will show, this result can be explained by two factors: (a) the average turbulent layer thicknesses are smaller than originally believed, and, more importantly, (b) only a minor fraction of the stratosphere is turbulent. In order to arrive at this conclusion, we used the high-resolution (10 m) wind profiles that were originally used to formulate the previously mentioned optical turbulence model. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Genetic relatedness and space use in a behaviorally flexible species of marmot, the woodchuck (Marmota monax)

Solitary species show several patterns of space use and relatedness. Individuals may associate randomly or may live near female or male kin, often as a result of natal philopatry or dispersal patterns. Although usually described as solitary or asocial, woodchucks (Marmota monax) are behaviorally flexible marmots that exhibit greater sociality in some populations than others. I examined relationships between kinship, geographic distance, and home range overlap, as well as dispersal and philopatry, to determine the extent to which kin associated spatially. I used a combination of microsatellite DNA analysis, long-term behavioral observations, and radiotelemetry to test predictions that females, but not males, would associate with kin. Indeed, woodchucks lived closer and shared a greater proportion of their home range with more closely related animals. Overlap of females' and males' home ranges was positively correlated with kinship, and male–female dyads shared more area with closer kin. Most juveniles delayed dispersal beyond their first summer. Females often remained philopatric and settled near their natal range. Although males often dispersed as yearlings, some males also established territories within or immediately adjacent to their natal home ranges. A combination of factors can explain these spatial patterns, including high population density associated with the study site's location within a suburban environment, high dispersal costs, and abundant food. Thus, despite their asocial and solitary reputation, woodchucks displayed spatial patterns seen in other, more social species of ground-dwelling sciurids.     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

基于三角随机模拟和ArcGIS的河流水环境健康风险评价模型

基于河流水环境系统中随机性、模糊性等多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将三角模糊数与随机模拟方法相耦合,构建了三角随机模拟模型,并将其应用到湘江(长沙段)的健康风险评价中。通过将各参数浓度进行三角模糊化和随机模拟,结果表明,各断面污染物造成的健康风险的变化趋势,总体沿湘江上游至下游逐步降低,表现为昭山 > 猴子石 > 五一桥 > 橘子洲 > 乔口 > 三汊矶,且昭山、三汊矶断面和乔口断面均有恶化趋势。相对于常规的确定性方法,本模型能够得出评价区域健康风险的可能值区间及其相应的概率水平等定量信息,更加客观、全面地表征评价区域的风险状态及其空间分布差异,为决策者提供更多有用的信息。     

聚合氯化铝-腐殖酸(PACl-HA)絮体的物理与分形特征研究

采用低温急速冷冻-真空干燥技术制备了PACl-HA絮体的粉末样品,研究了这些样品的物理与分形特征.结果表明,PACl-HA絮体具有无定形结构,主要组成元素为C、O、Al,所含特征官能团保留了絮体组成原料的一些特征;絮体的BET比表面积为130～161 m²·g^-1,BJH累积吸附孔体积为0.38～0.52 cm³·g^-1,BJH脱附平均孔径为7.7～9.6nm,PSD峰值对应孔径8.4～11.2nm.PACl-HA絮体具有自相似性的粗糙表面,呈现多尺度分形特征;图象法和N₂吸附/脱附等温线法确定的表面分形维数Ds分别为2.03～2.26、2.24～2.37,前者的分形尺度大约处于23～390nm之间,主要属于絮体外表面尺度,而后者的分形特征尺度区间的下限大约为0.2nm,属于孔表面尺度;另外,对同一絮体,N₂吸附法和脱附法确定的孔表面分形维数不同.热力学模型计算出的D_s远大于3,与Sahouli等的研究不符.     

含体积缺陷隔水管安全区间研究

为保障隔水管在海上安全作业,需要对含缺陷隔水管进行安全评估,使其在作业过程中不发生压溃、泄漏、断裂等安全事故。基于弹塑性线性硬化模型及Von Mises屈服准则,考虑拉弯内压载荷和缺陷几何尺寸的影响,建立含体积缺陷隔水管的三维有限元计算模型,分析含体积缺陷隔水管在复合载荷作用下的力学特性和安全作业区间,评价隔水管的安全性。结果表明:缺陷深度越大,含缺陷隔水管越易达到屈服;隔水管安全作业区间随着缺陷深度的增加而减小;较大的内压载荷会明显减小含缺陷隔水管安全区间范围,但是内压载荷较小时,缺陷深度对隔水管安全区间范围影响较小;弯矩载荷过大时,隔水管安全区间所承受的极限轴向载荷明显下降,但所承受的极限内压载荷变化不大。