分子流态下翅片管式热沉传输几率计算分析

目的研究空间环境模拟器翅片管式热沉传输特性,为进一步开展真空等效性分析等研究工作奠定基础。方法根据热沉结构特点建立镜面反射气体输运通道模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法,对该模型的传输几率进行分析计算,并建立验证模型,对计算结果进行验证。结果对于所选择的翅片管式热沉,其平面阵列的传输几率为0.030 116 4,柱面阵列的传输几率为0.017 988 6。结论蒙特卡罗方法可以用于计算一定结构的翅片管式热沉的传输几率。通过传输几率的计算,可以将热沉等效为具有相应传输几率的可透射平面,从而在保证模拟精度的同时大大简化模拟计算强度,提高计算效率。     

某850kW水平轴风力发电机机舱火灾模拟与分析

采用火灾动力学模拟器软件和性能化防火设计理论,基于实际事故案例分析,设计针对某850 kW水平轴风力发电机机舱的典型火灾场景,建立池火灾模型,对额定风速(13 m/s)下机舱内该类型火灾的发生和发展过程进行研究,模拟计算机舱内火灾的热释放速率、温度场和速度场等参数,探讨进气口风速对火灾热释放速率和温度场等的影响。结果表明:封闭条件下,从齿轮箱底部发展起来的油池火灾热释放速率在62.4 s时达到最大值(757 kW),持续燃烧93 s后降至0;齿轮箱附近部件遭受火灾破坏最为严重,喷射油料二次燃烧导致火强度变大并加剧了火灾的破坏程度。额定风速下,齿轮箱附近软管喷射油料未出现二次燃烧现象,但火灾后期热释放速率在335 s内达到4 000 kW;以火源为分界面,火源前方区域温度(406~567℃)明显高于后方区域温度(177~279℃);顶部通风口承受全部热流,机舱罩顶部温度最终达到930℃,并出现轰燃。     

驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为特性的关系

采用驾驶模拟系统平台,以不同车道类型及不同交通流状态(自由流/稳定流/不稳定流/强制流)为虚拟试验场,应用心理试验设计方法,测试得到21名被试在不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求及驾驶行为。对5种车道类型及4种交通流状态下被试驾驶时的视觉注意力需求特性和驾驶行为特性数据进行分析,得到不同车道不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求变化情况。利用多元回归方法分析了不同交通流状态下驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为之间的关系,并构建了基于驾驶行为特性的驾驶人视觉注意力需求预测模型。结果表明,驾驶人视觉注意力需求与制动次数、油门踏板位移和车辆轨迹偏差之间存在相关关系。     

Assessing fitness to drive—A validation study on patients with mild cognitive impairment

Objectives: There is no consensus yet on how to determine which patients with cognitive impairment are able to drive a car safely and which are not. Recently, a strategy was composed for the assessment of fitness to drive, consisting of clinical interviews, a neuropsychological assessment, and driving simulator rides, which was compared with the outcome of an expert evaluation of an on-road driving assessment. A selection of tests and parameters of the new approach revealed a predictive accuracy of 97.4% for the prediction of practical fitness to drive on an initial sample of patients with Alzheimer's dementia. The aim of the present study was to explore whether the selected variables would be equally predictive (i.e., valid) for a closely related group of patients; that is, patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Methods: Eighteen patients with mild cognitive impairment completed the proposed approach to the measurement of fitness to drive, including clinical interviews, a neuropsychological assessment, and driving simulator rides. The criterion fitness to drive was again assessed by means of an on-road driving evaluation. The predictive validity of the fitness to drive assessment strategy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses.

Results: Twelve patients with MCI (66.7%) passed and 6 patients (33.3%) failed the on-road driving assessment. The previously proposed approach to the measurement of fitness to drive achieved an overall predictive accuracy of 94.4% in these patients. The application of an optimal cutoff resulted in a diagnostic accuracy of 100% sensitivity toward unfit to drive and 83.3% specificity toward fit to drive. Further analyses revealed that the neuropsychological assessment and the driving simulator rides produced rather stable prediction rates, whereas clinical interviews were not significantly predictive for practical fitness to drive in the MCI patient sample.

Conclusions: The selected measures of the previously proposed approach revealed adequate accuracy in identifying fitness to drive in patients with MCI. Furthermore, a combination of neuropsychological test performance and simulated driving behavior proved to be the most valid predictor of practical fitness to drive.     

Changes in driving performance after first and second eye cataract surgery: A driving simulator study

Introduction: This study investigated the separate impact of first eye and second eye cataract surgery on driving performance, as measured on a driving simulator. Method: Forty-four older drivers with bilateral cataract aged 55+ years, awaiting first eye cataract surgery participated in a prospective cohort study. They completed a questionnaire, visual tests and a driving simulator assessment at three time points: before first eye, after first eye, and after second eye cataract surgery. Generalized Estimating Equation Poisson or linear regression models were undertaken to examine the change in four driving outcomes of interest after adjusting for cataract surgery and other potential confounders. Results: The rate of crashes/near crashes decreased significantly by 36% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.64, 95% CI 0.47–0.88, p = 0.01) after first eye surgery and 47% (IRR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35–0.78, p < 0.001) after second eye surgery, compared to before first eye cataract surgery, after accounting for confounders. The rate of crashes/near crashes also decreased with better contrast sensitivity (IRR 0.69, 95% CI 0.48–0.90, p = 0.041). A separate model found that time spent speeding 10 kilometers per hour or more over the limit after second eye surgery was significantly less (0.14 min, p = 0.002), compared to before first eye surgery, after accounting for confounders. As contrast sensitivity improved, the duration of speeding also decreased significantly by 0.46 min (p = 0.038). There were no statistically significant changes in lane excursions or speed variation. Practical applications: The findings highlight the importance of timely first and second eye cataract surgery to ensure driver safety, especially as older drivers wait for second eye cataract surgery. It also provides further evidence that contrast sensitivity is probably a better predictor of driving ability in older drivers with cataract than visual acuity, the measure on which driver licensing requirements are currently based, and should also be used when assessing fitness to drive.     

Posttreatment Tree Mortality After Forest Ecological Restoration,Arizona, United States

Pine–oak forests are of high ecological importance worldwide, but many are threatened by uncharacteristically severe wildfire. Forest restoration treatments, including the reintroduction of a surface fire regime, are intended to decrease fire hazard and emulate historic ecosystem structure and function. Restoration has recently received much management attention and short-term study, but little is known about longer-term ecosystem responses. We remeasured a replicated experimental restoration site in the southwestern United States 5 years after treatments. Basal area, tree density, and canopy cover decreased in the treated units at a faster rate than in controls. Delayed mortality, not evident right after treatment, decreased density modestly (13% in treated units and 10% in controls) but disproportionately affected large trees (“large” ponderosa pines were those with diameter at breast height [dbh] ≥37.5 cm; other species dbh ≥20 cm). In treated units, 10.9 large trees ha^–1 died, whereas 6.2 trees ha^–1 died in control units. Compared with reference conditions, the experimental blocks remained higher in pine density and, in three of the four blocks, in basal area. Pine trees grew significantly faster in treated units than in controls, enough to reach the reference level of basal area in 6 years. Although mortality of large trees is a concern, the treated units have vigorous growth and low density, indicating that they will be relatively resistant to future drought and fire events. Similar treatments may be beneficial in many areas of the United States and in related pine-oak ecosystems elsewhere.     

人的失误理论研究进展

人的失误理论研究已进入结合认知心理学并以人的失误动态过程为研究热点的阶段。笔者回顾了人的失误理论研究的进展,讨论了相关的人的认知行为类型、认知失误的基本概念和人的失误模型。例如适用于不同情景和应用条件的几种模型:刺激-调制-响应(S-O-R)模型;失误的决策阶梯(Step-ladder)模型;通用GEMS模型以及Worledge认知模型。由于人的行为的复杂性和难以预测性造成了人的可靠性分析(HRA)的困难,因此,对人的行为的深入了解必须从人的行为特性及其规律性入手,将人的可靠性分析与行为科学理论结合起来,揭示人的失误发生的内在规律。与此同时,重点分析了概率安全评价技术(PSA)中如何对人的失误事件进行定量估计;如何考虑人的心理因素影响的几种重要的人的失误理论模型,并对今后这该领域中的研究方向进行了讨论。     

MODELING INFILTRATION WITH VARYING HYDRAULIC CONDUCTWITY UNDER SIMULATED RAINFALL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Physically-based models are extensively used to simulate the infiltration process under varied field conditions. Most models are based on the deterministic nature of input parameters related to the flow process (such as hydraulic conductivity). These models yield poor predictions of infiltration rates because they do not include the field-scale variations of flow parameters. The paper presents an approach for integrating the field-scale variability of hydraulic conductivity with an infiltration model to simulate infiltration under the rainfall conditions. A model describing the spatial structure of hydraulic conductivity has been developed using stochastic techniques. The stochastic structure of hydraulic conductivity was then incorporated in the Green-Ampt and Mein-Larson infiltration model. The model outputs on the instantaneous infiltration rates and cumulative infiltration were evaluated using the field infiltration data measured under simulated rainfall conditions. The results show that the combined model is capable of rep. resenting the instantaneous infiltration rates and cumulative infiltration of the study soils. The model may, therefore, be used to simulate the rainfall infiltration process for spatially-variable soils under the field conditions.     

叶面喷施磁处理复合肥对新红星（Starkrimson）苹果树营养元素的影响

叶面喷施磁处理复合肥对新红星（Ｓｔａｒｋｒｉｍｓｏｎ）苹果树营养元素的影响程文林，杨佩芳，刘和，陈晓春，高美英（山西农业大学大谷０３０８０１）关键词磁处理复合肥，根外追肥，新红星苹果树，营养元素ＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＭＡＧＮＥＴＩＺＥＤＣＯＭＰＯＵＮＤＦＥ...