Development of a FRAM-based framework to identify hazards in a complex system

System-based approaches such as Functional Resonance Analysis Model (FRAM) are developed to model the complex interactions of system variables and their performance variabilities that may lead to a hazardous scenario in a complex system. However, they have limitations to be applied in process industries for hazard identification since they are heavily based on qualitative analysis and expert elicitations. To overcome the limitations of the system-based hazard identification, the study developed a FRAM-based framework to integrate a human performance model, an equipment performance model, and a first-principle based chemical process model into a hybrid simulator, which will be able to aid hazard analysis in the process industries. The simulator is capable of simulating the performance variabilities of the functions through the aggregation of mathematical models within a complex system, which can be used to simulate potential hazard situations and identify the corresponding interactions. Interaction analysis is conducted by applying association rule mining to the simulated data. The impact of the interactions among upstream functions on the performance of downstream functions can be identified by interpreting the rules, whose antecedents contain upstream functions and consequents contain downstream functions.     

基于MOVES的西安市出租车污染物排放分析

利用MOVES模型对2012年西安市出租车油改气后污染物排放因子进行模拟,得出污染物CO、NOx、PM2.5、PM10、HC的排放因子分别为3.488 1 g/km、0.370 0 g/km、0.004 7 g/km、0.005 1 g/km、0.095 2 g/km,计算得到5种污染物的年排放总量分别为4 830.76 t、512.42 t、6.51 t、7.06 t、131.85 t。将得到的数据与2010年相关数据比对,说明出租车油改气后污染物排放量在机动车总排放量中所占比例有所下降。     

铜绿微囊藻和孟氏颤藻在富营养化湖泊中生长特征的模拟研究

为了模拟富营养化状态下2种蓝藻在湖泊中的生长特征,采用大型室内湖泊模拟装置进行了模拟研究,并通过三角瓶实验以及光合作用速率的响应实验对模拟装置中藻的生长特征进行了分析.湖泊模拟装置中,铜绿微囊藻和孟氏颤藻在对数生长期的特征生长速率分别为0.43d-1和0.32d-1,但对数生长期很短,仅3～4d.在对数期后有一个很长的"线性期",即生物量随时间近似成线性增长.在氮、磷较为充分的条件下,由于较强的光合作用导致了水体pH的升高,以及生物量增高导致了藻的自遮蔽作用,使藻的生长容易出现碳源限制和光限制.受水下光的影响,2种藻细胞内叶绿素a含量在对数期内一直增大.随后颤藻细胞内叶绿素a含量又逐渐降低,而微囊藻细胞内叶绿素a含量仍保持较高的水平,其原因可能是微囊藻能适应更高的pH.     

Impact of perceptual countermeasures on driving behavior at curves using driving simulator

Objective: The probability of crash occurrence on horizontal curves is 1.5 to 4 times higher than that on tangent sections. A majority of these crashes are associated with human errors. Therefore, human behavior in curves needs to be corrected.

Methodology: In this study, 2 different road marking treatments, optical circles and herringbone patterns, were used to influence driver behavior while entering a curve on a 2-lane rural road section. A driving simulator was used to perform the experiment. The simulated road sections are replicas of 2 real road sections in Flanders.

Results: Both treatments were found to reduce speed before entering the curve. However, speed reduction was more gradual when optical circles were used. A herringbone pattern had more influence on lateral position than optical circles by forcing drivers to maintain a safe distance from opposing traffic in the adjacent lane.

Conclusion: The study concluded that among other low-cost speed reduction methods, optical circles are effective tools to reduce speed and increase drivers’ attention. Moreover, a herringbone pattern can be used to reduce crashes on curves, mainly for head-on crashes where the main problem is inappropriate lateral position.     

Effect of alcohol use on accelerating and braking behaviors of drivers

Objective: The present study examines the accelerating and braking behaviors of drivers at different blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) in heterogeneous driving conditions using driving simulator experiments.

Methods: Eighty-two licensed drivers performed simulated driving in a rural road environment designed in the driving simulator at 4 BAC levels: 0.00, 0.03, 0.05, and 0.08%. Driving performance was analyzed using vehicle control variables such as mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force. Generalized linear mixed models were developed to quantify the effect of different alcohol levels and explanatory variables such as driver’s age, gender, and other factors on the driving performance indicators.

Results: Alcohol use was reported as a significant factor affecting the accelerating and braking performance of drivers. The acceleration model results indicated that drivers’ mean acceleration increased by 0.013, 0.026, and 0.027 m/s² for BAC levels of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.08%, respectively. Results of the brake pedal force model showed that drivers’ mean brake pedal force increased by 1.09, 1.32, and 1.44 N for BAC levels of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.08%, respectively. Age was a significant factor in both the models where a 1-year increase in driver age resulted in a 0.2% reduction in mean acceleration and a 19% reduction in mean brake pedal force. Driving experience could compensate for the negative effects of alcohol to some extent while driving.

Conclusions: The findings of the present study revealed that drivers tend to be more aggressive and impulsive under the influence of alcohol, which deteriorates their driving performance. Impairment in accelerating and braking behaviors of drivers under the influence of alcohol leads to increased crash probabilities. The conclusions may provide reference in making countermeasures against drinking and driving and contribute to traffic safety.     

Dissipation and translocation of saisenxin in tobacco and soil under conventional field and controlled laboratory conditions

Abstract

The aim of this investigation was to investigate the fate and translocation characteristics of saisenxin (SSX), a novel organic zinc fungicide, in the environment and tobacco plants under conventional field and laboratory conditions. A rapid and sensitive analytical technique based on high-performance liquid chromatography was used for determination of SSX, in soil samples and tobacco leaf, stem and root samples. The method had satisfactiry linearity (R^2?=?0.9999) and the limits of detection and of quantitation of the target compound were 0.06 and 0.20?mg kg^?1, respectively. The average recoveries were in the range of 89.74–94.24% in soil, leaf, stem and root samples, with relative standard deviations of <8%. For conventional field trials, the half-life (t_1/2) of SSX was 5.9–6.5 days in soil and 4.8–5.3 days in tobacco leaves; the corresponding values under controlled laboratory conditions were extended to 7.1 and 7.6?days. The translocation factor (TF) values were in the range of 0–2.25 and 0–0.25 for foliage and root irrigation treatments, respectively. The TFs of SSX in tobacco indicated that tobacco had a high ability to transfer SSX upward.     

Analysis of effects of driver’s evasive action time on rear-end collision risk using a driving simulator

Introduction: Driver’s evasive action is closely associated with collision risk in a critical traffic event. To quantify collision risk, surrogate safety measures (SSMs) have been estimated using vehicle trajectories. However, vehicle trajectories cannot clearly capture presence and time of driver’s evasive action. Thus, this study determines the driver’s evasive action based on his/her use of accelerator and brake pedals, and analyzes the effects of the driver’s evasive action time (i.e., duration of evasive action) on rear-end collision risk. Method: Fifty drivers’ car-following behavior on a freeway was observed using a driving simulator. An SSM called “Deceleration Rate to Avoid Crash (DRAC)” and the evasive action time were determined for each driver using the data from the driving simulator. Each driver tested two traffic scenarios – Cars and Trucks scenarios where conflicting vehicles were cars and trucks, respectively. The factors related to DRAC were identified and their effects on DRAC were analyzed using the Generalized Linear Models and random effects models. Results: DRAC decreased with the evasive action time and DRAC was closely related to drivers’ gender and driving experience at the road sections where evasive action to avoid collision was required. DRAC was also significantly different between Cars and Trucks scenarios. The effect of the evasive action time on DRAC varied among different drivers, particularly in the Trucks scenario. Conclusions: Longer evasive action time can significantly reduce crash risk. Driver characteristics are more closely related to effective evasive action in complex driving conditions. Practical Applications: Based on the findings of this study, driver warning information can be developed to alert drivers to take specific evasive action that reduces collision risk in a critical traffic event. The information is likely to reduce the variability of the driver’s evasive action and the speed variations among different drivers.     

Assessing the hazards from a BLEVE and minimizing its impacts using the inherent safety concept

Many worlds' major process industry accidents are due to BLEVE such as at Feyzin, France, 1966 and San Juan Ixhuatepec, Mexico City, 1984. One of the approaches to eliminate or minimize such accidents is by the implementation of inherently safer design concept. This concept is best implemented where the consequence of BLEVE can be evaluated at the preliminary design stage, and necessary design improvements can be done as early as possible. Thus, the accident could be avoided or minimized to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to a costly protective system. However, the inherent safety concept is not easy to implement at the preliminary design stage due to lack of systematic technique for practical application. To overcome these hurdles, this paper presents a new approach to assess process plant for the potential BLEVE at the preliminary design stage and to allow modifications using inherent safety principles in order to avoid or minimize major accidents. A model known as Inherent Fire Consequence Estimation Tool (IFCET) is developed in MS Excel spreadsheet to evaluate BLEVE impacts based on overpressure, radiation heat flux and missile effects. In this study, BLEVE impacts are the criteria used as the decision-making for the acceptability of the design. IFCET is integrated with iCON process design simulator for ease of data transfer and quick assessment of potential BLEVE during the design simulation stage. A case study was conducted to assess of potential BLEVE from a propane storage vessel at the design simulation stage using this new approach. The finding shows promising results that this approach has a potential to be developed as a practical tool.     

A STRIP MODEL APPROACH TO PARAMETERIZE A COUPLED GREEN‐AMPT KINEMATIC WAVE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Infiltration processes at the plot scale are often described and modeled using a single effective hydraulic conductivity (Kg) value. This can lead to errors in runoff and erosion prediction. An integrated field measurement and modeling study was conducted to evaluate: (1) the relationship among rainfall intensity, spatially variable soil and vegetation characteristics, and infiltration processes; and (2) how this relationship could be modeled using Green and Ampt and a spatially distributed hydrologic model. Experiments were conducted using a newly developed variable intensity rainfall simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots in a rangeland watershed in southeastern Arizona. Rainfall application rates varied between 50 and 200 mm/hr. Results of the rainfall simulator experiments showed that the observed hydrologic response changed with changes in rainfall intensity and that the response varied with antecedent moisture condition. A distributed process based hydrologic simulation model was used to model the plots at different levels of hydrologic complexity. The measurement and simulation model results show that the rainfall runoff relationship cannot be accurately described or modeled using a single Kg value at the plot scale. Multi‐plane model configurations with infiltration parameters based on soil and plot characteristics resulted in a significant improvement over single‐plane configurations.     

The effect of multiple soil applications of disulfoton on enhanced microbial degradation in soil and subsequent uptake of insecticidal chemicals by potato plants

Abstract

Potatoes were grown during 1992 in 2 m² plots of loam which had received 1, 2 or 3 annual treatments of Di‐Syston 15G, equivalent to 3.36 kg AI/ha, in furrow at planting. The presence of enhanced degradative activity to the sulfoxide and sulfone metabolites of disulfoton in the soil treated in the previous two years was confirmed by laboratory tests prior to the 1992 treatments. Soil, seed potato and foliage from the three treatments were analyzed for disulfoton and its sulfoxide and sulfone metabolites for 12 wk following planting/treatment. Disulfoton was the major insecticidal component of the soil, a minor component of the seed piece and was not detected (<0.02 ppm) in potato foliage. Disulfoton concentrations in each of the three substrates sampled were similar for the three treatments. Disulfoton sulfoxide and sulfone were the major insecticidal components of the seed piece and foliage. Their maximum concentrations in 1st year soil, seed pieces and foliage were ca. 2x, 2x and 6x, respectively, those measured in the 2nd and 3rd year treatments. The results demonstrate that enhanced microbial degradation of relatively minor insecticidal compounds in the soil can profoundly affect insecticide levels in the plant when these compounds are the major insecticidal components accumulated. The broader implications for crop protection using soil‐applied systemic insecticides are discussed.