THE EFFECTS OF RISK AND RELIABILITY ON OPTIMAL RESERVOIR DESIGN1

A chance-constrained linear programming model, which utilizes multiple linear decision rules and is useful for river basin planning, is used to evaluate the effects of risk and reliability on optimal reservoir design. Streamflow forecasts or predictions can be explicitly included in the linear program. The risk associated with the predictions is included in the model through the use of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of streamflows which are conditioned on the predictions. A multiple-purpose reservoir on the Gunpowder River in Maryland is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. In order to provide the decision makers with complete and useful information, trade-off curves relating minimum reservoir capacity (a surrogate for dam costs), water supply and flood control targets, and the reliability of achieving the targets are developed. The trade-off curves may enhance the decision maker's ability to select the best dam capacity, considering technological and financial constraints as well as the trade-offs between targets, risks, and costs.     

Cost effective environmental control technology for utilities

On September 24, 1998, new regulations announced by the US EPA require 22 eastern states plus the District of Columbia to develop state implementation plans to reduce ground-level ozone through the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (Cooper, 1998). This plan calls for a 28% NOx cut in the summer time (1.2 million tons) by 2007. This calls for utilities to develop new, efficient, and robust post-combustion NOx control technologies. A new environmental control technology called low temperature oxidation (LTO) system, which can reduce NOx emissions below measurable levels (i.e. 2 ppm using process analyzers) at low temperature (125-325 °F), was awarded the best available control technology and the lowest available emission reduction technology by the US EPA in April 1998. Ozone is employed to oxidize nitric oxide (NO) to dinitrogen pentoxide (N₂O₅) at a low temperature in an oxidizer, which is then easily absorbed by water in a scrubber. Bench scale and pilot plant tests have shown that the LTO process can almost completely remove the NOx emissions (i.e. NOx emissions are below levels measurable using process analyzers). This proved that the LTO system is an attractive process to meet the stricter NOx regulations. There are multiple benefits of the LTO system besides removal of NOx emissions, includes reduction of SOx and CO emissions, and no secondary air emissions (NH₃, N₂O). In order to obtain minimum NOx emissions, extra ozone needs to be supplied. The cost of the process also increases nonlinearly as emissions decrease. This poses a challenging multiobjective optimization problem where emissions like NOx and SOx need to be minimized, while minimizing the system cost as well as extra ozone. This problem is addressed using a new and efficient multiobjective optimization framework. This framework will provide designs that are cost effective as well as environmentally friendly.     

基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测研究

回顾施工项目安全管理和安全管理研究现状,建立建设项目安全管理指标体系。利用人工神经网络非线性函数逼近能力,对项目风险因素程度预测。针对该网络当数据量大时,其结构复杂、收敛慢,易陷入局部最优的缺点,引入粗糙集对影响建设项目安全目标的不确定性因素进行约简,找出最小不确定性风险因素集,大大简化网络输入信息的表达空间维数。并结合粒子群算法收敛速度快、全局最优的寻优能力强的优点,建立基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测系统。通过实例验证该系统的科学性和有效性。     

改进的粒子群算法及其在土坡临界滑动面搜索中的应用

首先,提出了一种新型的模拟任意滑动面的方法,该法能自动产生运动许可的滑动面。同时,针对基本粒子群优化算法存在计算量大的缺点,提出了一种改进的,即不连续飞行粒子群优化算法。利用Spencer法计算滑动面的安全系数,对几个复杂土坡的最小安全系数及其对应的滑动面进行了分析,并与国内外已有结果进行了比较,证明了改进粒子群优化算法和模拟滑动面的新方法是合理、有效的,可用于复杂优化问题的研究。     

正压气力除灰系统的优化设计

从气力除灰系统的经济性考虑，按照系统运行能耗最省的原则，对系统进行优化设计。以山东临沂电厂除灰系统为例，优化出灰气比、管径、系统压损、耗气量等技术指标。实际运行效果证明这种优化设计方法是可行的，为该系统的推广应用提供了优化设计依据。     

MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION STUDIES OF A CANAL-LAKE-RIVER SYSTEM-OSWEGO RIVER SYSTEM,NEW YORK1

Use of systems analysis techniques for setting up flow regulation rules for the Oswego River System, a canal-river system with eight lakes, was examined. Two sets of lake regulation rules were proposed: the rule curve for each lake, and the lake-use priority curves for all the lakes. The former specifies balanced allocation of the storage in lakes to conservation pools and flood control pools and, the latter determines lakes releases depending upon the type of operation, the time of the year, and systems objectives. A generalized mathematical representation of the complex, multipurpose, multilake river systems operation is described. With appropriate measures of effectiveness and details of analysis, the problem was then solved with simulation and optimization. Use of the results in assisting basin plan formulation is also discussed.     

区域大气污染总量控制的渐进方法

对污染物实施总量控制是我国当前和今后污染控制和管理的方向。本文对区域大气污染总量控制的一般方法进行了讨论。考虑到污染控制成本和公平性要求 ,采用浓度控制与总量相结合的循序渐进方法 ,并提出了促进环境与经济协调发展的总量控制负荷优化分配模型 ,以期对各地总量控制的实施提供参考和借鉴     

A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16 km² catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicted and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basis during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set with acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to apply a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical optimization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate their performance for periods other than those for which they were determined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to have significant predictive capability. Numerical optimization is an aid for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.     

边坡稳定性评价的自适应模拟退火聚类分析法

本文针对常规聚类法对初始聚类中心 的敏感性以及聚类结果与样本输入次序有关等问题,提出了基于模拟退火算法的边坡稳定性评价的自适应聚类分析方法。此方法对三峡库区36个边坡的研究结果表明，它是一个具有全局最优解和有较高计算效率的聚类法,其结果明显优于常规聚类法。     

A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTI‐RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi‐reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the parameterization‐simulation‐optimization scheme. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e., hydropower plants). This methodology enables the radical decrease of the number of decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. It is adaptable in a wide range of water resources systems, and its purpose is to support water and power supply companies and related authorities. It already has been applied to two of the most complicated hydrosystems of Greece, the first time as a planning tool and the second time as a management tool.