办公建筑夏季用能行为测试研究

建筑使用者热环境改善行为对建筑能耗具有重要影响。对杭州市某办公建筑开展夏季空调使用行为测试。较高的空调使用率以及空调设备对室内热环境的显著改善说明空调使用是该地区夏季采用的主要降温措施。采用逻辑回归构建出夏季空调开启率预测模型。根据所构建的夏季空调开启率预测模型,得出测试房间空调开启室外耐受温度为32.0℃。根据测试期间空调开启时刻温度,得出空调开启室内耐受温度为28.7℃。     

NaCl对好氧颗粒污泥短程硝化反硝化的影响

利用SBR(序批式反应器)研究了不同ρ(NaCl)、曝气时间、ρ(COD_Cr)、进水ρ(NH₄+-N)对AGS(好氧颗粒污泥)短程硝化反硝化的影响. 结果表明,在pH、温度和ρ(DO)为8.0、30 ℃和3 mg/L条件下,以及ρ(NaCl)、曝气时间、ρ(COD_Cr)和ρ(NH₄+-N)为20 g/L、8 h、600 mg/L和70 mg/L时,η_A(NH₄+-N去除率)和NAR(NO₂--N积累率)达到最佳. 当进水ρ(NaCl)为10 g/L时,NOB(亚硝酸盐氧化菌)被完全抑制,AOB(氨氧化菌)能够保持正常活性. ρ(COD_Cr)较高时能够促进NAR的提高. 经过116 d的培养,AGS短程硝化反硝化的耐盐极限为50 g/L,此时η_A小于50%,AOB被严重抑制,AGS丧失硝化能力. AGS的同步硝化反硝化作用明显,SND(同步硝化反硝化率)平均值为24.2%,SNDV(同步硝化反硝化比速率)平均值为0.63 h-1,低ρ(DO)比高ρ(DO)下的SND同步硝化反硝化作用更为明显.      

面向粮食产量空间化的多元回归分析模型中的两个关键问题探讨

为比较不同区域尺度变量对模型拟合效果的影响,在全国不分区和分区两种情况下,分别基于县级和地市级两个区域尺度上的样本构建粮食产量与水田、水浇地、旱地面积之间的多元线性回归模型,结果显示,用地市级数据作分析样本比用县级数据作分析样本好,分区建模比不分区建模效果好。因此,将全国划分为7个区,以地市级数据作为区域尺度的变量,在区域、栅格、亚栅格三个尺度上探讨变量（因变量、自变量）尺度和常数项取值这两个因素对模型应用的影响。得到以下结论：1）基于区域尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,如果常数项不为0,则不能用于空间化计算;如果常数项为0,则可以用于空间化计算;2）基于栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论常数项是否为0,均可应用于空间化计算;3）基于亚栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论其常数项是否为0,也均可用于空间化计算,但需要将计算结果乘以一个系数,该系数等于栅格单元面积与亚栅格单元面积的比值。上述结论对其他类型的统计数据空间化具有指导和参考价值。     

FDI对中国环境污染影响的实证研究

基于中国期刊全文数据库中的30篇中文社会科学引文索引(CSSCI)的期刊论文,运用Meta方法定量分析FDI(外商直接投资)对中国环境污染的影响. 结果表明:①单一或几个环境污染指标和FDI相对值的回归系数分别为-2.72和-1.83,说明采用二者会降低FDI环境效应显著性,但后者不显著;②面板数据和样本时间跨度的回归系数分别为3.19和1.52,说明采用二者会提高FDI环境效应显著性,并更有可能得到FDI加剧了环境污染的结论;③样本数据平均年限变量的回归系数为-0.90,说明采用2000年后数据会降低FDI环境效应显著性,2000年前FDI对环境污染加剧效应呈下降趋势,此后FDI改善了环境质量;④OLS法和固定效应模型的回归系数分别为2.22和0.78,说明采用二者会提高FDI环境效应显著性,但后者不显著. 综上可知,在纳入部分控制变量前提下,采用环境污染综合指数和FDI水平值,基于1985—2010年面板数据,运用OLS法和固定效应模型实证发现,FDI更有可能显著加剧了环境污染,但这种效应呈下降趋势,以至于2000年后FDI改善了环境质量.      

燃煤型砷中毒病区尿砷甲基化代谢和砷致皮肤损伤危险度的关系初探

砷中毒具有特异的皮肤损伤特征。为了研究燃煤型砷中毒病区高砷暴露、人体甲基化代谢能力与皮肤损伤患病风险之间的关系,在陕南典型燃煤型砷中毒村进行了皮肤损伤诊断和流行病学调查,采集尿样并分析总砷及形态砷含量,同时计算了用于表征人体砷甲基化代谢能力的指标包括尿中无机砷、一甲基砷和二甲基砷占总砷的百分含量(i As%、MMA%、DMA%),以及一甲基化率(PMI=MMA/i As)和二甲基化率(SMI=DMA/MMA)。Logistic回归分析结果表明:尿总砷含量(UTAs)是砷致皮肤损伤的危险因素(OR=1.038,95%CI:1.003~1.073),二甲基砷百分含量和SMI是皮肤损伤的保护因素(OR=0.883,95%CI:0.798~0.976;OR=0.724,95%CI:0.535~0.978);且砷致皮肤损伤的危险度随砷暴露水平的增高和甲基化能力的降低而增大。     

气体分离循环对高温厌氧消化过程的影响

采用厌氧序批式反应器,研究了气体循环(包括气体直接循环和脱除气体中的氢气后循环)对以葡萄糖和乙酸钠配制的模拟废水在高温厌氧消化过程中乙酸代谢速率、出水性质及微生物相的影响,并采用尺寸排除色谱和三维荧光光谱技术,对溶解性微生物产物(SMP)的分子量分布和荧光物质组成进行了分析.结果显示,气体循环使得出水中残余挥发性脂肪酸的浓度由238.2mg/L(未脱氢)和129.6mg/L(脱氢)分别减少至8.5mg/L和8.2mg/L,并最终降低了SMP产量,45d时分别降至气体循环前的36.8%和59.2%.脱氢气体循环促进了乙酸化和乙酸氧化,导致了微生态环境和甲烷化基质浓度的差异,促进了高分子量SMP向低分子量SMP的转化,污泥中的微生物形态亦发生了较大变化.可见气体循环改善了基质与微生物的混合状况,改善了出水水质,而脱氢气体循环加速了乙酸的代谢,有望更快速地解除易降解有机物高温厌氧消化过程中的酸抑制,提高厌氧消化效率.     

Detection and quantitation of trace levels of low molecular weight halocarbons (LMHs) associated with commercial sodium humate

Examination of vapor above commercial sodium humate and above 10wt% aqueous humate solution by gas chromatography (GC) revealed the presence of chloroform and trichloroethylene. Further examination of the aqueous humate by the purge and trap procedure confirmed the association of chloroform and trichloroethylene with the humate. GC/mass spectrometry analyses of methylene chloride extract of the humate established the association of LMHs with the humate. Improved headspace capillary GC technique showed that the humate contained not only chloroform, trichloroethylene but several other LMHs in the range 190 to 4000ng·kg^‐1.     

Regression models for octanol‐water partition coefficients,and for bioconcentration in fish

Octanol‐water partition coefficients (P) of a number of organochlorine insecticides (OCs) are presented. The merits of log‐log regressions between experimental ? values and calculated estimates of P, solute activity coefficients in water, solute molecular surface area data, and reversed‐phase liquid‐chromatographic net retention data, are critically evaluated for several classes of pollutants: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), chlorinated benzenes, chlorinated biphenyls and OCs. Special attention is paid to the predictive accuracy of such semi‐empirical regressions in connection with possible effects of solute molecular shape and polarity.

Finally, bioconcentration and ‐accumulation of hydrophobic pollutants in fish are briefly discussed.     

辽西风积土路基振陷研究及数值模拟

随着铁路车辆轴重增大、速度提高以及行车密度加大,长期行车必然使路基产生较大的累积塑性变形,因此对路基振陷的进一步研究已刻不容缓。本文主要以辽西高速铁路沿线的风积土路基为研究对象,取其原状土,通过室内常规土工试验获取风积土的基本物理和力学参数;根据试验结果,对风积土在长持时动荷载下的振陷量进行回归分析,进而得出预测振陷的方法;基于MIDAS软件,进行风积土路基在列车振动荷载下的振陷的数值模拟,根据模拟过程中参数的调整,得出风积土路基振陷量随参数的变化关系;最后,提出针对风积土路基抗振设计和隔振措施,进而得到用于指导风积土路基抗振和隔振措施的统一设计方法。     

Inferring extinction of mammals from sighting records, threats, and biological traits

For species with five or more sightings, quantitative techniques exist to test whether a species is extinct on the basis of distribution of sightings. However, 70% of purportedly extinct mammals are known from fewer than five sightings, and such models do not include some important indicators of the likelihood of extinction such as threats, biological traits, search effort, and demography. Previously, we developed a quantitative method that we based on species' traits in which we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the probability of rediscovery of species regarded as extinct. Here, we used two versions of the Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction in purportedly extinct mammals and compared the results of these two models with those of stationary Poisson, nonparametric, and Weibull sighting-distribution models. For mammals with five or more sightings, the stationary Poisson model categorized all but two critically endangered (flagged as possibly extinct) species in our data set as extinct, and results with this model were consistent with current categories of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The scores of probability of rediscovery for individual species in one version of our Cox regression model were correlated with scores assigned by the stationary Poisson model. Thus, we used this Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction of mammals with sparse records. On the basis of the Cox regression model, the most likely mammals to be rediscovered were the Montane monkey-faced bat (Pteralopex pulchra), Armenian myotis (Myotis hajastanicus), Alcorn's pocket gopher (Pappogeomys alcorni), and Wimmer's shrew (Crocidura wimmeri). The Cox model categorized two species that have recently disappeared as extinct: the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi). Our new method can be used to test whether species with few records or recent last-sighting dates are likely to be extinct.