Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

Trace Element Concentrations and Bioindicator Responses in Tree Swallows from Northwestern Minnesota

Extremely high concentrations of cadmium (3.5 μg/g dry wgt.) and elevated concentrations of chromium (>10 μg/g dry wgt.) and mercury (1.6 μg/g dry wgt.) were reported in waterbird tissues at Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge in northwestern Minnesota in 1994. Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) were studied during 1998–2001 at three drainages into the Refuge, two pools on the Refuge, and at a nearby reference location to document whether high levels of contaminants were still present, and if so to quantify the source and severity of the contamination. Trace elements were measured in tree swallow eggs, livers, and diet. Reproductive success and bioindicator responses were monitored. In 2000, water was drawn down on Agassiz Pool, one of the main pools on the Refuge. This presented an opportunity to evaluate the response of trace element concentrations in the diet and tissues of tree swallows after reflooding. High concentrations of trace elements were not detected in swallow tissues, nor were there differences among locations. Less than 20% of swallow samples had detectable concentrations of cadmium or chromium. Mercury concentrations were low and averaged <0.25 μg/g dry wgt. in swallow tissues. Trace elements, including mercury, did not increase in tree swallows following the 2000 drawdown at Agassiz Pool. Hatching success and survival of nestlings to 12 days-of-age for tree swallows on the Refuge were similar to the national average and consistent with background trace element concentrations. Bioindicator measurements were within the normal ranges as well.     

Formulaic Expert Method to Integrate Evaluation and Valuation of Heritage Trees in Compact City

Urban trees serve important environmental, social and economic functions, but similar to other natural endowments they are not customarily depicted in monetary terms. The needs to augment protection, funding and community support for urban greening call for proper valuation. Heritage trees (HTs), the cream of urban-tree stock, deserve special attention. Existing assessment methods do not give justice to outstanding trees in compact cities deficient in high-caliber greenery, and to their social-cultural-historical importance. They artificially separate evaluation from valuation, which should be a natural progression from the former. Review of tree valuation methods suggested the formula approach to be more suitable than contingent valuation and hedonic pricing, and provided hints on their strengths and weaknesses. This study develops an alternative formulaic expert method (FEM) that integrates evaluation and valuation, maximizes objectivity, broadly encompasses the key tree, tree-environment and tree-human traits, and accords realistic monetary value to HTs. Six primary criteria (dimension, species, tree, condition, location, and outstanding consideration) branched into 45 secondary criteria, each allocated numerical marks. Each primary criterion was standardized to carry equal weight, and a tree's maximum aggregate score is capped at 100. A Monetary Assignment Factor (MAF) to consign dollar value to each score unit was derived from three-year average per m² sale price of medium-sized residential flats. The applicability of FEM was tested on selected HTs in compact Hong Kong. The aggregate score of a tree multiplied by MAF yielded monetary value, which was on average 66 times higher than the result from the commonly-adopted Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers method. The computed tree values could be publicized together with multiple tree benefits to raise understanding and awareness and rally support to protect HTs. The property-linked FEM could be flexibly applied to other cities, especially to assess HTs in compact developing cities.     

Cesium-137 contamination of oak (Quercus petrae Liebl.) from sub-mediterranean zone in South Bulgaria

This study focuses on the cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) contamination in grass and in different compartments of oak trees growing in ecosystems, located in the zone with sub-mediterranean climate in South Bulgaria, characterized with high summer temperatures, low precipitation and often periods of drought. In 2008, three experimental sites - PP1, PP2, PP3 - were sampled in oak ecosystems from Maleshevska Mountain at 900 m above sea level. Samples from grass species and oak tree leaves, branches with different diameter, wood disks and bark were analyzed for ¹³⁷Cs activity with γ-spectrometry. The soil-to-plant transfer factor (TF) values for ¹³⁷Cs were estimated differentiating different tree compartments. Our findings showed relatively high activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs in oak trees even 22 years after the Chernobyl accident. The grass under oak was less contaminated compared with the oak trees. The different organs of oak trees could be distinguished according to the ¹³⁷Cs contamination as follows: bark > branches (d < 1 cm) > leaves > branches (d > 3 cm) > wood. The relatively higher contamination of bark compared with the new-formed biomass suggested that a significant part of ¹³⁷Cs was accumulated as a result of direct adsorption at the time of the main contamination event. The TF values obtained and the presence of ¹³⁷Cs in the branches, leaves and in the wood formed after 1986 confirmed that 22 years after the contamination, the main mechanism of ¹³⁷Cs entrance in tree biomass was the root uptake.     

电厂袋式除尘器滤袋故障分析及处理

以北京高井热电厂为对象,运用故障树分析的方法,对袋式除尘器及滤袋失效进行了故障树分析,并将之演变为成功树,提出了防止滤袋失效的措施。     

基于事故树的三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件诱因分析

三峡库区蓄水后对长江水体自净能力的极大削弱,沿江聚集的各类生产、生活活动对长江水质的多渠道污染极易引发库区各类水体污染公共安全事件。结合对库区水体污染公共安全事件多维度诱发因素的调研结果,运用事故树的分析方法对三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件的逐级诱发过程进行分析。研究表明：存在13条诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件的路径以及3条防治水体污染公共安全事件的路径;在不考虑诱因发生概率的情况下,排污因素是诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件最重要、最根本的因素,促成库区水体自净能力下降的回水区变长,水流紊动减弱和水位抬升三方面因素是次重要的诱发因素。只有对不同的诱因施行不同的监测和控制策略,才能对库区水体污染公共安全事件开展有效预警、预控.     

城市生活污水及二级处理水中手足口病病毒及肠道病毒的赋存状态

手足口病是由多种肠道病毒引起的传染病,其主要病原体有EV71、CVA16及CVA10。为了研究污水处理厂的生活原污水及二级处理水中此类病毒的存活情况,实验利用手足口病3种主要病毒的通用引物对其进行分型检测,同时使用肠道病毒通用引物检测所有肠道病毒,并对常规水质指标进行分析。结果表明,原污水及二级处理水的手足口病病毒阳性率分别为83.3%与36.7%,而肠道病毒阳性率更高达100%及93.3%。说明生活污水中的肠道病毒可以稳定存在,且若未进行有效消毒处理,可能存在于二级处理水中。在3种手足口病主要病毒中,CVA10检出率最高,达45.0%,CVA16及EV71检出率分别为8.3%及10.0%。可推断,CVA10为实验阶段该地区主要的手足口病病毒。通过相关性分析,肠道病毒的存活与水质条件密切相关。     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Structural-functional organization of lower vegetation layers in tree communities of the upper timberline ecotone in the Polar Urals

Typologically identical (dwarf birch-herb-dwarf shrub-moss) open and closed larch forests growing on the same altitudinal transect have proved to differ in the structural-functional organization of lower vegetation layers. Coverage, general species composition, and species richness of the herb-dwarf shrub layer are higher in the open forest than in the closed forest. Correlations between individual species of vascular plants weaken upon transition from the open to the closed forest. Conversely, the coverage of the lichen-moss layer increases in the closed forest, which contributes to its role as a factor of selection of vascular plant species against the background of the prevailing influence of the tree layer.     

可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。