隧洞施工通风系统事故树分析

在采矿、铁路、公路及水利水电工程中，常常采用长距离隧洞或隧道来穿越高山。而隧洞的施工以其施工技术复杂、难度大、风险高，经常成为控制工程工期的主要环节，隧洞施工中的通风换气系统，关系到施工能否顺利进行和施工作业人员的人身安全，根据隧洞施工通风系统的运行特点，采用安全系统分析中的事故树（FTA）方法，对隧洞施工中通风系统的安全性进行定性分析，找出影响通风安全的主要因素，并提出了通风安全管理对策，可以保证施工作业的顺利进行和人身安全，提高整个施工作业的安全度。     

毕节地区各土类水土保持树种的Fuzzy评价

根据毕节地区16个主要造林树种的生态生物学特性,结合本区气候和土壤生态条件,运用 Fuzzy 二级评价模型,对各土类水土保持树种的适宜程度进行了综合评价。     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

事故二叉树计算机算法

根据《数据结构》中的二叉树算法,结合事故树算法的特点,提出事故二叉树算法。该算法是对事故树求解算法的有益补充和发展,具有广阔的应用前景和现实意义     

Delivering on the Promise of Agroforestry

Agroforestry – the traditional practice of growing trees on farms for the benefit of the farm family and for the environment – was brought from the realm of indigenous knowledge into the forefront of agricultural research less than two decades ago. It was promoted widely as a sustainability-enhancing practice that combines the best attributes of forestry and agriculture. Based on principles of natural resource management and process-oriented research, agroforestry is now recognized as an applied science, that is instrumental in assuring food security, reducing poverty and enhancing ecosystem resilience at the scale of thousands of smallholder farmers in the tropics.Trees on farms provide both products and services: they yield food, fuelwood, fodder, timber and medicines, which farm families can use at home or take to market to bring in much-needed cash; they replenish organic matter and nutrient levels in soils and they help control erosion and conserve water. The International Centre for Research in Agroforestry, and its partners, are working to integrate the functions of trees with policy and institutional improvements that aim at facilitating wide-scale adoption by farmers.Two examples described in this paper are replenishing soil fertility in sub-Saharan Africa using short-term improved tree and shrub fallows and the results of agroforestry research to support significant land tenure policy in southeast Asia.Although just one option in sustainable land-use, science-based agroforestry has the potential to produce economically, socially and environmentally sound results for the billions of people who depend on this ancient practice and modern science.     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟

以胶带输送机运输事故树的计算机模拟过程为例 ,介绍了对事故树可靠性进行计算机模拟的原理、算法以及程序运行步骤 ,编制了模拟程序。用笔者提出的理论、方法及模拟程序 ,对平顶山煤业集团一矿胶带输送机运输事故进行了事故树分析与求解 ,同时将模拟程序运行结果与最小割集法求得的理论值进行了对比 ,计算结果误差小 ,所得结论准确可靠 ,为类似事故的模拟分析提供了一种新的方法和途径     

铁路安全预警系统的研究和实现

结合哈尔滨铁路局实际运营系统 ,基于事故树分析理论 ,探讨了铁路安全预警系统的实现。首先论述了事故树的建立方法和以事故树分析法为基础的铁路安全预警系统的核心算法 ,然后讨论了具体实现的数据结构和事故树编码方法 ,最后简要提出了铁路安全预警系统的系统设计思想     

可靠性分配理论在系统安全目标实现中的应用

在系统安全理论中,确定各基本事件的可靠度以实现所给定的系统安全目标值问题一直没有得到很好解决。笔者将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,提出了2个层次可靠度分配法:最小割集之间采取可靠度再分配法,对构成最小割集的各个基本事件之间采取等分配法。从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。为便于应用,通过实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,运用该模型可准确、简便地计算出各单元的可靠度,使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化。     

灰色层次结构模型在故障树分析中的应用

故障树分析技术对于复杂系统的故障诊断具有重要应用价值,提出把故障树看作2层灰色结构,通过建立灰色层次结构模型,给出判断各种故障模式发生可能性大小的一种通用方法.将其应用于压力容器爆炸事故的故障树分析,并取得了与实际情况吻合的满意结果.该方法为了解事故影响因素重要程度、控制事故发生和改进系统可靠性提供依据.