A flood risk decision making approach for Mediterranean tree crops using GIS; climate change effects and flood-tolerant species

The aim of this study is to estimate flood risk in the Mediterranean island of Crete in Greece, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The island of Crete, covering an area of 8265 km², is one of the most intensively Mediterranean agricultural areas dominated by fruit tree crops. In this study, the factors that are directly related to the creation of a flood are combined in a GIS environment in order to identify the most prone flooding areas. These factors are: (a) the Flow accumulation (F), (b) the Rainfall intensity (R), (c) the Elevation (E), (d) the Geology (G), (e) the Land use (L), and (f) the Slope (S). The initials of these factors gave the name to the proposed method: “FREGLS”. The above factors are presented in the form of grid maps and are used in order to determine the final flood risk map. Subsequently, the flood prone fruit tree areas of Crete can be estimated by applying a methodology based on weighting coefficients. The reliability of the final flood risk map is verified using historical flooded data. Additionally, the impact of global climate change scenarios A2 and B1, on flood risk in Crete is examined. Based on the above, this study highlights the flood prone fruit tree areas in the island of Crete under current and future climate conditions. Also, flood-tolerant fruit trees which appear to be economically important for Greece are recommended, especially for the high flood risk areas of the island. The proposed methodology can be applied as a decision making tool for flood risk mitigation to any river basin where tree crops are cultivated.     

Wood Density as a Conservation Tool: Quantification of Disturbance and Identification of Conservation‐Priority Areas in Tropical Forests

Abstract: Inventories of tree species are often conducted to guide conservation efforts in tropical forests. Such surveys are time consuming, demanding of expertise, and expensive to perform and interpret. Approaches to make survey efforts simpler or more effective would be valuable. In particular, it would be good to be able to easily identify areas of old‐growth forest. The average density of the wood of a tree species is closely linked to its successional status. We used tree inventory data from eastern Borneo to determine whether wood density can be used to quantify forest disturbance and conservation importance. The average density of wood in a plot was significantly and negatively related to disturbance levels, with plots with higher wood densities occurring almost exclusively in old‐growth forests. Average wood density was unimodally related to the diversity of tree species, indicating that the average wood density in a plot might be a better indicator of old‐growth forest than species diversity. In addition, Borneo endemics had significantly heavier wood than species that are common throughout the Malesian region, and they were more common in plots with higher average wood density. We concluded that wood density at the plot level could be a powerful tool for identifying areas of conservation priority in the tropical rain forests of Southeast Asia.     

我国桐油发展战略与对策

桐油是我国的特产资源，其价值之高，用途之广，早已引起许多国家的重视；其化学结构之特殊，化学性质之活泼，引起许多化学工作者的兴趣，而致力于桐油化学科学的研究。我国种植油桐历史修久，远在公元前六世纪有文记载。新中国成立后，党 和政府非常重视，周总理曾亲自主持全国油桐工作会议，油桐得到了空前发展。     

基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的钻井井塌事故的定量分析

井塌事故在钻井过程极其常见,由于钻井液、井身结构等设计不合理,以及钻井过程的误操作均会造成井塌的发生,其后果主要是造成卡钻、卡套管等事故,严重时造成井眼毁坏。为了对井塌事故进行危险性分析,采用贝叶斯网络与故障树相结合的方法,避免传统故障树方法的局限性。首先对井塌事故的所有危险因素进行辨识建立故障树,然后将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,建立条件概率表,运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力对井塌事故进行危险性分析。对井塌事故各基本事件概率分布的计算分析结果表明,考虑事件的多态性,综合利用故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络法能有效提高井塌事故分析的有效性,推算出井塌事故概率分布更为准确。     

聚乙烯醇罐区火灾爆炸事故树分析

通过现场的调研与事故树分析相结合的手段对某厂聚乙烯醇车间聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的危险因素进行了识别与分析.以该罐区可能发生的火灾爆炸事故作为顶上事件,对可能引发顶上事件的21个基本事件及一个条件事件构建事故树,利用最小割集、最小径集及结构重要性计算手段进行事故风险程度分析,从而确定醋酸乙烯暴聚是聚合罐区的首要危险源,而促发醋酸乙烯暴聚的物料长时间停留、气相氧含量过高、温度控制失效、阻聚剂含量不足等四个基本事件是导致聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的最危险因素.本文对以上聚合罐区发生火灾爆炸事故的风险因素进行详细定性分析,并在此基础上有针对性的提出了相应的安全预防控制措施.同时,该聚合罐区的事故树分析结论也可以为同类别化工单位罐区的日常运行、设计改造、维护保养等工作提供理论依据.     

石方爆破作业爆破冲击波事故分析

在进行工程爆破时,爆破所产生的飞石、振动、空气冲击波、噪音和毒气是公认的爆破公害,尤其是振动和飞石在爆破过程中是不可避免的危害.针对在实际工程中,由于爆破冲击波造成的人员伤害和设备的损害以及引起该事故发生的危险因素,采用事故树分析方法得到影响顶事件的最小割集,通过计算基本事件的结构重要度,确定了影响爆破冲击波事故的主要因素,并提出相应的安全措施,对降低爆破冲击波效应的影响以及降低露天爆破安全事故有重要意义.     

重烟羽扩散的风洞模拟实验研究

介绍利用风洞研究重气烟羽扩散特征以及围墙和树对其影响.实验使用的源是地面上的圆形面源.通过实验,提出了基于"变形源"假设的重气烟羽扩散物理过程;发现围墙在低Froude数下对重气烟羽有阻挡作用,而树对重气没有阻挡作用,但对"变形源"的形状有影响;从对危险气体的防护角度看,对测量范围的围墙外,围墙的防护效果明显,而围墙外加树与否影响不大.     

2种茶树对铜胁迫的响应及其组织铜化学形态变化的比较研究

为了分析不同茶树对Cu胁迫的生理响应及其组织中不同化学形态Cu的累积特性,本研究采用水培法,探讨铁观音、肉桂2种茶树在不同浓度Cu胁迫下,茶树根系活力、叶绿素含量、茶树组织Cu含量及不同化学形态Cu含量的变化,以期为重金属对茶树毒害机理和茶树对重金属的自我防御研究提供理论依据。结果表明,随着Cu胁迫浓度的增加,茶树根系活力及叶片叶绿素含量呈现下降趋势,而与对照相比,铁观音下降的幅度远高于肉桂。不同茶树品种在相同浓度Cu胁迫下,其根、茎、叶组织的Cu含量差异不显著,而不同组织中则表现为根叶茎。不同化学形态Cu含量分析结果表明,随着Cu胁迫浓度的升高,2种茶树根部可交换态Cu、碳酸盐结合态Cu、有机结合态Cu含量百分比呈现下降趋势,而铁锰氧化态Cu和残留态Cu呈现上升趋势;茎部可交换态Cu、有机结合态Cu含量百分比呈现下降趋势,碳酸盐结合态Cu、铁锰氧化态Cu和残留态Cu呈现上升趋势;叶部可交换态Cu、碳酸盐结合态Cu、有机结合态Cu含量、铁锰氧化态Cu含量的百分比均呈现上升趋势,而残留态Cu呈现下降趋势。进一步分析发现,Cu胁迫下,铁观音茶树根、叶部主要以采取提高有机结合态Cu的形式来降低Cu离子毒害,而肉桂则以提高铁锰氧化态Cu形式降低Cu离子毒害,叶部则以提高铁锰氧化态Cu和残留态Cu的形式降低Cu离子毒害。可见,不同的茶树在Cu胁迫下所表现解毒模式存在着一定的差异。     

液氯汽车罐车罐体安全附件泄漏事故树分析

液氯汽车罐车在运输过程中可能会发生氯气泄漏,由于罐体安全附件密封点较多,因而绝大多数泄漏发生在安全附件上。运用事故树(FTA)分析方法分析了液氯汽车罐车罐体安全附件泄漏事故的原因,最后提出了防止此类事故发生的措施。     

加油站爆炸事故的危险性评价

将加油站储罐分为地上储罐和地下储罐两种情况,采用故障树分析法对其爆炸事故进行了定性分析,找出了导致加油站爆炸事故的重要基本事件,提出了加油站爆炸事故的预防措施。