浅析思想政治教育的生态价值

胡锦涛总书记在十七大报告中指出,“建设生态文明,基本形成节约能源资源和保护生态环境的产业结构、增长方式、消费模式”。这一战略思想对中国的发展具有非常重要的意义。没有生态文明,一切文明就没有了享受的前提。思想政治教育不仅对经济政治文化建设有着重要的作用,而且在生态文明的建设过程中依然有重要的作用。加强思想政治教育生态价值的研究,对于缓解我国人口、环境、资源和能源等方面的压力以及我国生态文明建设,落实科学发展观有十分重大的意义。     

Development and Use of a Sedimentation Risk Index for Unpaved Road‐Stream Crossings in the Choctawhatchee Watershed1

Abstract: Unpaved road‐stream crossings increase sediment yields in streams and alter channel morphology and stability. Before restoration and sedimentation reduction strategies can be implemented, a priority listing of unpaved road‐stream crossings must be created. The objectives of this study were to develop a sedimentation risk index (SRI) for unpaved road‐stream crossings and to prioritize 125 sites in the Choctawhatchee watershed (southeastern Alabama) using this model. Field surveys involved qualitative and quantitative observations of 73 metrics related to waterway conditions, crossing structures, road approaches, and roadside soil erosion. The road‐stream crossing risk analyses involved elimination of candidate metrics based on redundancy, skewness, lack of data, professional judgment, lack of nonzero values, unbalanced box plots, and limited ranges of values. A final selection of 12 metrics formed the SRI and weighed factors involving soil erodibility, road sedimentation abatement features, and stream morphology alteration. The SRI was organized into narrative categories (excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor) based on the distribution of scores. No excellent sites (scores ≥55) were found in this study, 17 (20.7%) were good (low sedimentation risk), 37 (45.1%) were fair (moderate sedimentation risk), 26 (31.7%) were poor (high sedimentation risk), and two (2.5%) were very poor (high sedimentation risk). There was no significant difference in SRI scores among crossing structure type (round culverts, box culverts, and bridges) (H = 4.31, df = 2, p = 0.058). A future study of the Choctawhatchee watershed involving the same study sites could assess the success of restoration plans and activities based on site score improvement or decline.     

电厂对珍禽保护区的环境影响评价实例探讨

以位于自然保护区边缘的火电厂建设项目环境影响评价为实例,阐述了火电厂生态环境评价中对自然保护区珍稀鸟类的保护方法,以供类似项目的生态环境影响评价借鉴。     

Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

基于道化法(DOW)的计算机辅助软件开发

传统的评价方法费时费力,效率低下.将计算机技术与评价方法相结合是评价工作发展的趋势.介绍了为世界各国石油化工企业所广为接受的美国道化学公司(DOW)火灾、爆炸危险性指数评价法,以及根据该法的评价思路所开发的辅助软件的设计思路和功能.     

风险管理在水电工程中的应用

水电工程是一个在建设过程中充满风险的、相当复杂的系统工程,其风险管理伴随着工程建设的全过程.随着我国水电工程建设体制改革的进一步深化,风险管理越来越受到工程界的重视.分析了在水电工程中存在的主要危险有害因素,提出了具体的风险管理和评价方法,并对一些主要的评价方法进行了大致的比较,同时对水电工程的风险管理工作提出了一些改进措施.     

基于知识推理的发电企业设备风险管理应用研究

基于发电企业设备自身的特点及工作人员对风险知识认知的局限性,有必要分析发电企业设备在运行、检修中潜在的风险.分析了设备风险知识与风险管理的关系,并以发电企业各类大型设备中应用最广泛的电动机为例,解决了电动机风险知识的表达及推理问题,为实现基于知识的设备风险管理提供了一种思路,对指导发电企业的设备日常维护、巡检以及状态监测、避免不必要的损失有着积极的意义.     

江河水源地突发性水污染事故风险评价

近年来,我国江河饮用水水源地突发性水质污染事故频发,成为我国面临的最严重的环境问题之一.江河水源地突发性水质污染事件的风险评价是确保饮用水源地水质安全的重要手段,对突发性水质污染事故,采取适当的应急处理措施.     

基于人工免疫原理的事故预防研究

介绍生物免疫识别模式,分析事故预防过程的实质是抑制潜在危险转化成事故的控制过程,分析比较事故预防与生物免疫识别模式在作用、生存环境、动作触发源等的共性,构建了基于免疫识别模式的事故预防系统并建立了事故预防数学模型;定义事故预防系统的识别率、失效率、误判率并给出了数学表达式,指出监测生产系统各环节状态信息是否符合系统的安全要求就是识别潜在危险的过程,是事故预防的关键,基于人工免疫原理的事故预防数学模型具有较强的健壮性、自适应性和动态防护性等特点。