Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

What did Lotka really say? A critical reassessment of the “maximum power principle”

This paper presents a critical discussion of the so-called “maximum power principle”, often quoted in studies about the energy balance of living systems and also known in the emergy literature as “maximum em-power principle”. Several authors consider this principle highly relevant and some even proposed it as a “fourth law of thermodynamics”. A critical analysis of the original source, namely Alfred Lotka's 1921-22 papers, conducted both in an historical perspective (the connection between Lotka's writings and the ongoing debate at his time) and in a more modern context, leads to a more detailed and less biased assessment. It turns out that in spite of Lotka's very anticipatory and incredibly sharp vision of the possible interconnections between the second law of thermodynamics and evolutionism, doubts arise about the general applicability of his “maximum power principle”. From an accurate analysis of his writings, it can be concluded that: (a) Lotka explicitly and consistently addressed the “optimal use” of the flow of exergy (available energy), and therefore the quantity defined as “em-power” is an incorrect interpretation of Lotka's constrained maximum power principle; (b) “Lotka's principle” can be reformulated within Ziegler's “maximum entropy production” or Prigogine “minimum entropy generation” paradigm only under two different respective sets of rather stringent additional conditions which Lotka was probably already aware of but never explicitly stated.     

Efficient thinning regimes for Eucalyptus fastigata: Multi-objective stand-level optimisation using the island model genetic algorithm

A stand-level optimisation problem formulated to determine a set of efficient thinning regimes satisfying two objectives, i.e. value production for sawlog harvesting and volume production for a pulpwood market, was demonstrated for a Eucalyptus fastigata trial in Kaingaroa Forest, New Zealand. Genetic algorithms were used to estimate the set of efficient thinning regimes (i.e. regimes that occur when it is not possible to increase the achievement of one objective without reducing another) known as a Pareto frontier. Each thinning regime specified a unique combination of initial planting density; frequency, timing and intensity of thinning; final crop number; and rotation length. Specifications for the “best” regime in the Pareto set (i.e. the one that satisfied a balanced trade-off between value and volume production) were similar to those recommended through professional judgment based on pooled long-term field observations from different eucalypt species grown throughout New Zealand. The advantage of Pareto optimality was the ability of not only identifying a unique thinning regime, but equally efficient regimes each providing a different combination of value and volume production. Research on this approach has the potential of being applied to other forest sites, providing there is sufficient re-measurement data to reflect stand growth dynamics.     

库仑滴定法测定煤中全硫影响因素的探讨

从煤样的粒度和均匀性、载气流量、电解液的使用、电解池和电极片的处理、库仑法测硫仪的校正等方面,对应用库仑法测定煤中全硫应注意的问题及因为进行分析,提出相应的控制措施,以确保测定结果的准确性.     

基于信息处理和事故链原理的结构化飞行员差错模型

为了对民航飞行员人为差错进行系统分析,研究民航业中常见人为差错的分析方法,指出其局限性。基于信息处理过程和事故链原理,从微观的认知过程和宏观的HFACS框架2个层面构建一种新的飞行员人为差错分析模型,并对模型中的情景分析、差错模式与分类、认知机理、差错恢复、差错成因、反馈机制和防御机制等几大核心模块进行阐述,重点介绍认知机理在差错形成中产生的关键影响因素,提出结构化差错分析方法的思路与步骤。该模型为民航飞行员人为差错的产生机理、差错分类和差错成因的分析提供一种新思路,但模型的进一步应用还有待于通过案例分析来验证。     

电子垃圾拆解地周边土壤中二(口恶)英和二(口恶)英类多氯联苯的浓度水平

采集了电子垃圾拆解地周边125个点位的151个土壤样品,分析了土壤中4~8氯代二噁英和二噁英类多氯联苯的浓度.表层土壤样品中总二噁英的浓度范围为280~7 010 pg·g-1,平均浓度为1 380 pg·g-1.中层和深层土壤样品中总二噁英的平均浓度分别为表土的63%和38%.表土样品中二噁英毒性当量浓度(以I-TEQ计)范围为1.4~94.8 pg·g-1.根据德国关于毒性当量浓度的指导方针,125个土壤样品中只有19个(15%)可以被认为对人体健康无害,其余85%的土壤需要调查二噁英的来源.如果考虑多氯联苯对毒性当量的贡献,则有98%的土壤需要调查二噁英的来源.主因子分析被用来调查这一地区二噁英的排放源.通过对土壤中二噁英的同系物分布进行分析,发现拆解活动是这一地区热过程二噁英的主要排放源,也是这一地区土壤中二噁英的主要来源.     

论环境风险预防原则中的风险阈值

如何把环境风险预防原则确立为环境法的基本原则,一个重要的问题就是"环境风险"的界定。通过对法律意义上的环境风险进行分析,指出确立风险阈值的原因,即我国对"环境风险"的界定不清,环境风险的风险性缺乏法定依据以及不同种类的利益之间存在冲突等,进而从明确环境风险的类型、评估环境风险量度、明确责任归结三方面思考了风险阈值的确立问题。     

建立人力资源价值评估体系的思考

人力资源价值评估是市场经济发展的客观需要。是防止企业资产流失的必要手段。建立人力资源价值评估体系应坚持盘活存量的原则，与激励机制设计相互结合的原则。间接定价与简单易行、便于操作的原则。评估的主要内容包括原始价值、知识经验、工作能力、工作业绩、社会适应性和发展潜力。期望通过人力资源价值评估体系及评估机制的确定，形成以能力和业绩为导向的人力资源管理机制。     

可持续发展理念下的海洋旅游开发研究

现代的海洋旅游已进入全新的发展时期。海洋旅游业在海洋产业中具有先导地位，发展潜力巨大，在可持续发展的理念下，本文对我国海洋旅游开发的原则及保障措施等方面进行研究和探讨。     

生态承载力水平评价的动态模型及其应用——以洞庭湖生态经济区为例

生态承载力是可持续发展研究的核心.本文基于生态承载力的内涵,从4个方面构建了生态承载力的评价指标体系,并以最大信息熵原理(MIEP)为基础,自组织特征映射神经网络(SOFM)为算法,借助MATLAB数学软件为计算平台,从复杂系统结构演化的角度提出了生态承载力评价模型,并用MIEP模型对洞庭湖生态经济区2008—2012年的生态承载力进行评价,以指导当地生态建设.结果表明,5年间该地区的生态承载力呈总体上升的趋势,其中,2008年和2009年两年生态承载力水平基本一致,2010年呈现较明显的上升,2011年的生态承载力剧烈下降后在2012年呈现大幅回升.ξ值各分量的雷达图揭示出各指标逐年贡献程度的变化,结合准则层面的分析发现,水资源发展状况对该地生态承载力整体水平影响较大.与主成分分析法的比较表明了MIEP模型对生态承载力评价的可行性,同时其能更好地体现生态承载力发展演变的动力学特性,连接权值的获取避免了人为设定的主观性,在评价中有明显优势,且在预测上有一定潜力.