预测有机废气在活性半焦上吸附量的实验研究

以甲苯和苯组成的双组分气体作为吸附质,活性半焦作为吸附剂在20℃下进行吸附实验,测定该混合气体在活性半焦上的平衡吸附量;再利用纯组分甲苯和苯在活性半焦上的Langmuir吸附等温线,运用Extend-Langmuir(E-L)方程预测双组分气体在活性半焦上的平衡吸附量,并与实验值进行对比.实验结果表明,E-L方程对于预测甲苯-苯双组分气体在活性半焦上的总平衡吸附量要比各组分吸附量准确,平均相对误差仅为1.40％,最大相对误差为3.32％.     

立体抽采条件下高瓦斯采空区煤自燃危险性预测

为准确预测高瓦斯采空区煤自燃的状况,通过分析发现高抽巷是监测采空区遗煤自然发火的最有效地点。推算出采空区气体在高抽巷中所占的体积分数,进而确定采空区遗煤不同的燃烧阶段所对应的CO体积分数和CO指数。结果表明:当高抽巷中的CO体积分数Chdr CO<30×10-6或CO指数ICO<0.5%时,采空区的遗煤处于低温氧化阶段;当高抽巷中的CO体积分数Chdr CO≥30×10-6或CO指数ICO≥0.5%时,采空区遗煤进入自然发火危险阶段,此时必须采取措施控制采空区自燃氧化的进一步发展。对80501工作面的采空区煤自燃成功地进行预测预报,实现了安全生产。     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

西安市生态文明建设评价及预测

根据生态文明的涵义和生态市建设的总体思路,提出了生态文明建设3（系统层、子系统层、单项指标层）×3（经济发展,社会进步,环境保护）评价体系,其中包括25个单项指标。对西安市1998-2007年生态文明建设进行了定量评价研究,结果表明西安市生态文明建设处于整体上升的趋势;在此基础上,应用自回归预测模型对西安市经济、社会、环境和生态文明建设发展进行了预测,为西安市全面协调发展提供参考借鉴。     

城市不同类型高架快速路噪声影响

参照《城市快速路设计规程》(CJJ 129—2009)并用Cadna/A软件对3种类型的城市高架快速路进行声场模拟;对高架类型、道路限速、预测点噪声值三者进行方差分析并评判高架类型对预测点噪声值的影响程度。结果表明,高架声影区只对高度低于高架且与高架距离较近的预测点影响较大,地面道路对1~2层预测点的噪声值影响较大;双层分离式在1~8层表现出更强的噪声污染性,噪声最大值出现在第6层附近,单层分离式及整体式产生的噪声最大值所在楼层数随建筑物与高架之间距离的增大而升高,单层分离式对各楼层的噪声污染程度都较小。高架类型、道路限速对噪声值的影响显著,道路交通量的大小可以改变高架类型及道路限速对于预测点噪声的效应量大小。     

基于ARIMA-LOESS模型的危化品道路运输事故起数预测

文章针对危化品道路运输事故预测问题,运用差分自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrat-ed Moving Average,ARIMA)与局部加权回归模型(Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing,LOESS)的组合模型,对我国危化品道路运输事故发生起数进行...     

Investigating the effectiveness of safety countermeasures at highway-rail at-grade crossings using a competing risk model

Introduction: Highway-rail at-grade crossings (HRGCs) are critical locations where a railway and a roadway intersect with one another. Crashes at those locations often result in fatalities and economic and social damages due to the impacts on both road and rail users. The main purpose of countermeasures at HRGCs is to permit safe and efficient rail and highway operations. Method: Countermeasures at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) considered in this study include all traffic control devices and other warning and barrier devices at or on approaches to crossings. In general, active devices are commonly accepted as more effective countermeasures than passive devices. However, many of the previous effectiveness studies are either at the project level or were conducted without considering the before-improvement condition. This study focuses on the network-level marginal effectiveness of countermeasures on crash rate and severity levels during the 29-year study period from 1990 to 2018 by fully considering before-improvement control levels. A competing risk model (CRM) is able to accommodate the competing nature of crash severities as multiple outcomes from the same event of interest, which is crash occurrence in this study. Subsequently, CRM is used in this study as an integrated one-step estimation approach that investigates both crash frequency and severity likelihood over time. Results: The study findings indicate that adding audible devices to crossings already equipped with gates will result in a considerable annual decline in crash occurrence likelihood (0.25%). The same device installed at crossings already controlled by gates and flashing lights results in less reduction in crash occurrence likelihood of 0.14%. Moreover, adding a stop sign to the active crossing controls of gates, standard flashing lights, and audible devices will lead to a decrease in the probability of crash occurrence and severe crashes (injury and fatal). However, adding stop signs to crossings equipped only with crossbucks will increase the crash occurrence.     

数值预报产品在长江干流段面雨量概率预报中的释用

运用2003年6～8月国家气象中心T213L31、武汉暴雨所MAPS数值预报产品,读取一定经纬度范围内的格点资料进行处理,得到最初因子。应用统计软件对最初因子与面雨量实况值进行聚类分析,并依据最优化的原则,将因子分为若干“段”,面雨量实况值（R）分为4个等级：无雨、0＜R≤5 mm、5 mm＜R＜15 mm和R≥15 mm。针对不同的等级,分别求出因子各“段”的降水频率作为X样本序列;相应地,R取“0”或“1”形成Y样本序列,用多元线性回归统计方法建立长江干流段面雨量概率预报方程。     

城市轨道交通噪声的声源特性研究进展

分析了城市轨道交通噪声的主要类型、基本特性、传播规律及其影响因素;综述了国内外城市轨道交通噪声的预测及测量分析技术的研究成果,并对其进行了总结比较,阐述了各种方法的特点、主要成就和局限;最后探讨了城市轨道交通噪声领域今后的研究方向和发展趋势,为解决城市轨道交通发展中的噪声问题提供了参考.     

基于L-M神经网络的道路交通噪声预测研究

神经网络具有很强的预测功能.根据石家庄公路交通噪声的实测数据,利用L-M优化算法的多层神经网络预测模型进行道路交通噪声的预测,经检验,计算值与实测值接近,预测精度令人满意.