Stream Temperature Modeling Using Functional Regression Models

Stream temperature is one of the most important environmental variables in lotic habitats as it has important and direct impacts on the ecosystem. Given the continuous nature of this variable, the aim of this paper was to introduce functional regression for the air‐stream temperature relation, being capable to model an entire seasonal or annual curve of temperatures as one entity, rather than multiple daily or weekly values in classical models. Three types of functional models were explored in the study and compared to two classical models (Generalized Additive Model and Logistic Model) for six rivers from the United States The results show the functional models have the best performance for all the considered rivers. When comparing functional models between them, one variant of the historical functional model performs better than the two other models and is the most parsimonious. Functional regression leads to encouraging results to model the complete annual stream temperature curve as one entity compared to other classical approaches.     

中国居民直接生活能源消费碳排放区域差异及影响因素分析

基于2003-2015年中国30个省份的居民直接生活能耗碳排放数据,利用空间自相关分析其空间格局变化,并利用地理加权回归模型分析了居民消费所产生的二氧化碳排放影响因素。结果表明,中国省域的碳排放空间依赖作用较为显著;居民消费水平、居民直接生活能耗碳排放强度、劳动年龄人口比重对居民人均直接生活能耗碳排放量的增加具有促进作用;家庭规模对人均碳排放的影响呈现较强的负向抑制作用。中国经济发展的区域不平衡在碳排放方面凸显为居民直接生活能源消费碳排放的差异,并在集聚格局上表现出多种类型。     

辽宁省水库富营养化限制因子及风险研究

中国东北部典型水库群的富营养化风险管理是饮用水安全的重要保障。选择辽宁省15个主要水库作为研究案例,以近十年的水质数据为评价基础,采用统计学分析方法,针对春、夏、秋3个季节建立富营养化指标的回归模型,识别不同季节富营养化产生的主要限制因子。采用概率分布曲线法对各水库发生中营养化和轻度富营养化的风险进行评估,并对15座水库的风险进行排序。结果表明:水库富营养化在不同季节的环境限制因子各有不同,水库中营养化和轻度富营养化的风险特征也有显著差异。     

防霾口罩呼吸阻力的研究

通过对8种常用类型防霾口罩的实验测试,采用回归曲线分析方法得出了防霾口罩呼吸阻力随使用时间的变化函数形式,同时也通过实验数据统计给出了各种类型口罩的建议使用时长,建议N90和N95无纺布防霾口罩在空气轻度污染下使用时长不超过11~12 h,中度污染下不超过8~10 h;而棉布为面料的N95口罩在轻度污染下使用时长不超过7 h,中度污染下不超过6 h。     

太湖真光层深度谱的分布特征及其介质影响探究

基于2010年5月份全湖28个站点分层测量的水体下行辐照度以及各光学介质(有机悬浮物LOI、无机悬浮物ISS、叶绿素a Chl-a)浓度的实测数据,本文运用岭回归分析法,分析了不同湖区5月份真光层深度谱的分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明整个有效光合辐射范围内,3种因素对真光层深度的贡献均为负,ISS浓度是真光层深度的主要贡献因子,贡献率达0.48~0.62;其次为LOI浓度,贡献率为0.34~0.45;Chl-a浓度的贡献最小,贡献率为0.05~0.09.675 nm处,ISS的贡献具有谷值,Chl-a与LOI的贡献却为峰值;520~650 nm处Chl-a贡献值保持低值.此外,按各采样点的真光层深度谱分布的线型向量空间余弦相似度(cosine)进行分步聚类(Ascending Hierarchical),将全湖分为二类,梅梁湾、竺山湾、贡湖湾以及胥口湾以北区域为第一类,其余区域为第二类.结合全湖所有采样点的各介质浓度数据,发现第一类采样点LOI与Chl-a的相对浓度大于第二类,此两类介质浓度凸显了650 nm、675 nm处真光层深度谱分布曲线的波谷特征.     

基于主成分分析法对安肇新河水质评价的研究

安肇新河为大庆市的南线排水系统的主要排水干渠.安肇新河河道北起王花泡滞洪区,南抵松花汪,东邻肇兰新河,西至大庆市西排干,流域形状基本上为狭长形,河道的主要任务是排泄古恰闸以上七个滞洪区及各区间的来水.由于运用单因子综合评价法无法对安肇新河的水质进行比较分析,特引入主成分分析法对近十年数据进行分析,进一步比较了安肇新河时间和空间上的水质变化情况.通过对因子选择和计算,对安肇新河近10年的数据进行空间和时间的科学比对,进行综合比较并作出时间和空间上的评价.     

环境监理取费基价的测算方法研究

环境监理是“三同时”制度全过程管理的体现.统一的行业收费标准对环境监理行业的健康发展至关重要.完善的收费机制有利于企业间的公平竞争,先进技术的应用与发展,高端人才的引进.通过对比发展较成熟的工程监理取费机制,分析环境监理的工作内容,收集已实施案例数据.通过matlab技术对收集的取费数据进行拟合分析,得出环境监理取费函数,并检验函数偏差.得出以投资额为基数的环境监理基价取费建议表.     

利用LUR模型模拟杭州市PM2.5质量浓度空间分布

模拟城市大气污染物浓度空间分布对研究城市空气质量及人体健康至关重要.本研究利用土地利用回归模型(Land Use Regression,LUR),提取包括污染点源因子、交通因子、人口因子、土地利用因子和气象因子等60个预测因子,基于地理加权算法(GWR)建立春、夏、秋、冬四个季节的模型,实现对杭州地区近地表PM_(2.5)质量浓度空间分布的预测.结果表明:基于地理加权回归算法时,检验模型的R2值分别达到0.76(春季)、0.70(夏季)、0.73(秋季)、0.76(冬季),模型能够解释PM_(2.5)浓度值80%以上的变异.每个季度杭州地区PM_(2.5)浓度变化不尽相同,但总体以杭州中部最高,西南部偏低.研究说明基于LUR模型模拟大尺度地区PM_(2.5)质量浓度空间分布是可行的.     

Estimation of pyrethroid pesticide intake using regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples

Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression modeling performed on measurements of selected pesticides in composited duplicate diet samples allowed (1) estimation of pesticide intakes for a defined demographic community, and (2) comparison of dietary pesticide intakes between the composite and individual samples. Extant databases were useful for assigning individual samples to composites, but they could not provide the breadth of information needed to facilitate measurable levels in every composite. Composite sample measurements were found to be good predictors of pyrethroid pesticide levels in their individual sample constituents where sufficient measurements are available above the method detection limit. Statistical inference shows little evidence of differences between individual and composite measurements and suggests that regression modeling of food groups based on composite dietary samples may provide an effective tool for estimating dietary pesticide intake for a defined population.     

Dust ignition of pure and encapsulated paraffin phase change materials

In this study, the dependence of the flammable concentration on particle size is investigated for Phase Change Material (PCM) and Encapsulated Phase Change Material (EPCM) particles using a novel continuous particle dispersion apparatus into which a propane flame is introduced creating a test akin to the flash-point test for liquids. The results show that the threshold concentration is a strong function of particle size. For tested particles with size ranging from 290 μm to 750 μm, the threshold concentration is above the predictions based on an instantaneous heat transfer limit, and is approximately linear with the particle size, following a heat transfer limited ignition model. For sizes above ≈1 mm, the particles behave like the bulk material, and ignition is not observed for the concentrations tested. The results obtained here are important for the safe construction, handling, and operation of systems using PCM and other particles.