社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

Public Investment and Environrnental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environrnental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially in absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the cropspecific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.     

Research on Public Participation and Information Publicity in Strategic Environmental Assessment

1 INTRODUCTIONStrategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the application of EIA(Environment Impact Assessment) to strategic actions such as policies, plans or programs (PPPs). More specially, SEA is: 'The formalized, systematic and comprehensive process of evaluating the environmental impacts of a policy, plan or program and its alternatives, including the preparation of a written report on the findings of that evaluation, and using the findings in publicly accountable decision-ma…     

生态旅游本土化问题研究

如何在接受西方生态旅游新观念的同时；又保持自己的本土特色,是值得我们认真关注的一个课题。生态价值观是人类如何看待同自然关系的一种整体意识，中西方生态价值观在历史进程中表现出相异的特点：西方主张人地分立．中国力求“天人合一”，但这一特点在当代又有所变异.受此影响，西方生态旅游资源强调其自然属性．而中国则以自然和人文融合的旅游资源为基础。因此．西方生态旅游市场呈现出一元特征，而中国则必须同时考虑市场的消费和培育双重功能,构造高端和大众二元结构的市场。大众生态旅游是现阶段朝向西方式严格生态旅游的一个有益过渡.注重本土化色彩的生态旅游认证体系的推行，生态旅游区的建设，以及生态旅游产品的开发是发展中国生态旅游的当务之急.     

Ecosystem Management on Public Lands: An Application of Optimal Externality to Timber Production

While there are increasing numbers of non-consumptive forest uses on public lands, some silvicultural management systems provide little flexibility for the realization of non-commodity values. Traditional economic decision-making tools, such as net present value, are often applied in a manner which inadequately accounts for the full value of the resource. As a result, sub-optimal management practices are often implemented. By applying a marginal analysis of the optimal externality of different silvicultural systems, it is possible to identify the optimal timber management strategy in terms of the total costs of the timber harvest under alternative uses. Although difficulties arise in valuing non-consumptive uses, contingent valuation with averting costs estimates can establish a lower bound on society's willingness to pay for foregone timber harvesting. Low impact harvest operations and “new forestry” techniques, such as selection harvest cuts, are helpful in reducing the external costs of timber cutting. Therefore, the implementation of such systems may actually increase the socially optimal area of public lands to be harvested under a multiple-use designation.     

Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation

To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378). We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and, among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural worldviews on decision-making.     

突发公共事件应急心理干预机制的构建

突发公共事件往往会对人造成多方面的伤害,特别是对人的心理影响不容忽视,为突发公共事件受害人提供心理援助和应急心理干预,有助于社会公众及当事人正确对待突发事件的影响,对和谐社会的构建和安定的社会局面也有重要的意义。该文提出了加强突发公共事件国家心理预警和应急社会心理干预机制构建的重要作用,分析了心理干预机制构建的“四大因素”和基本原则;以抢险救援人员、社会公众、灾难性事故与事件的受害人为应急心理干预的对象,介绍了应急心理干预的基本任务与侧重点。最后,在分析的基础上,提出应将重大灾害的心理危机干预列入突发公共事件的应急预案。     

Why Are People Skeptical about Climate Change? Some Insights from Blog Comments

Surveys of public opinion show that a significant minority of the population are skeptical about climate change, and many suggest that doubt is increasing. The Internet, in particular the blogosphere, provides a vast and relatively untapped resource of data on the thinking of climate skeptics. This paper focuses on one particular example where over 150 climate skeptics provide information on their background, opinion on climate change, and reasons for their skepticism. Although these data cannot be regarded as representative of the general public, it provides a useful insight into the reasoning of those who publicly question climate science on the Web. Points of note include the high level of educational background, the significant numbers who appear to have been converted from a position of climate concern to one of skepticism, and the influence of blogs on both sides of the climate debate.     

开放型公共场所应急疏散标识优化设计方法研究

为优化设计开放型公共场所的应急疏散标识,根据最短疏散时间、出口匹配原则建立两步优化模型,利用计算机仿真技术及数学优化模型,对开放型公共场所的疏散方案进行优化,合理分配各出口的疏散人数,对区域进行划分并设置相应的疏散标识。以某广场为例,运用上述方法进行疏散标识的优化设计,验证了该方法的可行性和适用性。优化结果表明,各出口的疏散人数分别调整至为282、143、152和424人后,疏散时间较初始状态降低了45.3%。该优化设计方法不仅可为开放型公共场所应急疏散标识的设置提供支持,还可为其他场所制定疏散方案、设置疏散指引标识提供参考。     

以河床井水为应急水源的可行性研究

为解决城市水源地突发污染事故引起的自来水厂断水问题,提出了以河床井水代替受污染河水作为应急水源的应急预案,在取水口附近的河床打一口水井,当城市水源地发生突发污染事故时,关闭取水头水阀,开启水井水阀,以河床井水作为应急水源,并通过模拟试验验证了其可行性.结果表明,在细沙体积分数为40％的土壤条件下,原水苯胺质量浓度分别为952 mg/L、781 mg/L、580 mg/L、452mg/L、352mg/L、182mg/L的试验中,出水苯胺质量浓度开始超标的时间随土壤渗透系数减小而延迟,与原水苯胺质量浓度无关.当土壤渗透系数为1.94×10-5～ 3.64×10-5 cm/s时,出水苯胺质量浓度开始超标的时间为84～ 144h,以河床井水作为应急水源可以避免由河水突发污染引起的84h内的自来水厂断水事故.土壤对苯胺的吸附量仅占原水中苯胺含量的14.95％～ 2.86％,其对出水苯胺质量浓度开始超标的时间的影响可以忽略,出水苯胺开始出现的时间主要由土壤渗透系数决定.出水苯胺最大质量浓度随原水苯胺质量浓度增大呈线性增加,线性方程为y =0.4979x-3.7029,R2=0.9775.研究表明,以河床井水作为应急水源,能够有效地降低城市因突发污染事故而引起的自来水厂断水的可能性.