Pinning down vulnerability: from narratives to numbers

Social vulnerability analyses have typically relied upon narratives to capture the nuances of the concept. While narratives have enhanced our understanding of the multiple drivers of vulnerability, they have had limited influence on hazards and climate adaptation policy. This is partially a function of the different needs and goals of the policy and research communities. The former prioritises generalised quantitative information, while the latter is more concerned with capturing complexity. A theoretically driven and empirically tested quantitative vulnerability and capacities index (VCI) for use at the local scale is presented to help connect vulnerability research and policy. There are four versions of the index for use in rural and urban contexts at the household and community levels. There can be an infinite number of drivers of vulnerability, but the VCI draws upon 12 indicators to represent material, institutional and attitudinal aspects of differential vulnerability and capacities.     

Evaluating Alternative Strategies for Minimizing Unintended Fitness Consequences of Cultured Individuals on Wild Populations

Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive‐wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic–genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density‐dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies, evaluation of not just the preferred strategy but also the consequences of failing to achieve the desired target is critical. Evaluación de Estrategias Alternativas para Minimizar las Consecuencias No Inesperadas en la Adecuación de Individuos Criados en Cautiverio sobre Poblaciones Silvestres     

Disturbance-Response Analysis: a Method for Rapid Assessment of the Threat to Species in Disturbed Areas

Abstract:  We developed a method with which to analyze a specie's response to chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD). We regressed density of individuals on the intensity of 3 disturbance agents (human activities, raising livestock, and land degradation) along CAD gradients to determine how much CAD is experienced by a species; whether species are ruderal (achieving maximum densities in disturbed sites); whether density declines as a result of CAD; which disturbance agents are responsible for this reduction; and the number of populations that decline as a result of CAD. We tested the method on 9 threatened Mammillaria species (Cactaceae). Seven species were ruderal. In 4 species, actual disturbance surpassed the CAD intensity in which plants achieved their maximum densities; thus, the density of those 4 species appeared to be declining. For 7 species, some populations were threatened by human activities or livestock, whereas others were favored by them. Land degradation negatively affected all species. Our results allowed us to distinguish 4 groups of species that had similar responses and thus may require different forms of management. Our method provided an estimation of the growth rate (λ) of the studied populations that was significantly correlated with λs obtained from demographic studies. The size structures of populations were consistent with the predictions of the analysis, which suggests our results are consistent and reliable. Disturbance–response analysis provides a basis for management in heavily populated areas, where conservation must be achieved along with development activities that cause CAD. The method provides readily interpretable information, which facilitates participative decision making; the data are rapidly generated, which makes it appropriate when results are required promptly or for assessment of large numbers of species; and it provides a comprehensive perception of how threatened species behave in the real world.     

A comprehensive action determination model: Toward a broader understanding of ecological behaviour using the example of travel mode choice

This paper examines a first version of a Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) of ecological behaviour that incorporates intentional, normative, situational, and habitual influences on environmentally friendly behaviour. The main assumptions of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), the norm-activation model (NAM), the theoretical concept of habit and the ipsative theory of behaviour were integrated into a comprehensive model. The model was tested using a structural equation modelling approach on a sample of 389 students in the domain of travel mode choice and compared to established less comprehensive models (TPB, NAM and a combination of both). The results show that all compared models had a good to excellent model fit and explained a substantial amount of variation in travel mode choice. The CADM, however, explained the greatest degree of variation as compared with the other models, at 65%. Subjective and objective situational constraints were responsible for most of the variation in travel mode choice in the CADM, but intentions and habits also had a significant impact. The influence of social and personal norms was mediated by habits and intention, while habits moderated the relationship between intention and behaviour. The importance of the CADM as a framework for other domains of ecological behaviour is also discussed.     

测定空气中甲醇的毛细管气相色谱方法研究

使用HP—Wax毛细管柱进行水样分析，甲醇和乙醇分离效果好，该方法的精密度和准确度高，每0.2μL的最低检出限为0．7ng。此法利用了化学工作站，使得分析更简单、方便。     

公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究

公共场所人群聚集的风险影响因素众多,其随机性和不确定性强,对风险进行定量比较困难.在前人研究的基础上,对事故进行分类,并根据事故发生概率和与其相应的概率分布,通过数学推导和参数补偿,提出了个人风险定量计算模型.最后以公共场所的部分事故统计资料为参考数据,阐述了该模型的使用方法和步骤,同时指出使用该模型过程中应该注意的问题.结果表明,该模型具有一定的合理性和准确性,对公共场所人群聚集安全具有一定的指导意义.根据模型的计算结果,建议一般公共场所个人风险的推荐值为4.50×10-7.     

显色法测定环境样品中的纳米二氧化钛

水环境中纳米二氧化钛分析方法的建立是研究其环境行为的基础.以钛离子与H2O2的显色反应为基础,建立了用分光光度计测定含纳米二氧化钛水样、鱼样的方法.该方法简便可行,不需要复杂仪器设备,测定结果与ICP-AES测定方法相比无显著差异.     

上海市中心城区公园绿地对居住区的社会服务功能定量分析

城市公园绿地的社会服务功能是城市绿地系统生态服务功能的重要组成;评价其社会服务功能需同时考虑服务的公平性和有效性。为科学合理的定量分析城市公园绿地的部分社会服务功能,建立了一套评价体系,包括公园绿地服务范围覆盖率、公园绿地服务重叠度和单位面积公园绿地服务人口数等3项指标。以上海市中心城区为例,介绍了3项指标的定义;基于地理信息系统平台实现了计算流程,并对上海市中心城区主要公园绿地对于居住区的社会服务功能进行了定量分析。研究表明：2009年上海市中心城区的主要公园绿地对于居住区的服务范围覆盖率已超过80%,服务重叠度平均值为221,单位面积公园绿地服务人口数的平均值为117人/m2。3项指标可为城市公园绿地的社会服务功能分析提供有效的定量研究手段     

原子荧光光谱仪同时测定样品中的砷和汞

用原子荧光光度计,采用顺序注射自动进样技术同时测定不同样品中的砷和汞,并进行了仪器工作条件的优化,砷、汞的检出限分别可达0．2μg/L和0．015μg/L,样品的加标回收率砷为92％～103％,汞为98％～104％,完全能够满足环保行业不同样品砷和汞的含量的检测。该方法具有一次性处理样品,同时测定样品中砷和汞含量的优点,操作简单、快速,节省试剂。